Sample Category Title

The S&P 500 ($SPX) has shown significant correction since its peak on February 17, 2025, before a tariff announcement. We propose that the corrective phase, labeled as wave (II), concluded at 4823. However, for the index to confirm the end of this correction and rule out a potential double correction, it must surpass the prior wave (I) high of 6147.43. Since the wave (II) low, the SPX has embarked on an upward trajectory, characterized as a nesting impulse—a pattern where waves build momentum in a structured, upward climb.

From the wave (II) low, the rally began with wave 1 peaking at 5246.57, followed by a pullback in wave 2 to 4910.42. The index then surged in wave 3, which is unfolding in a five-wave impulse pattern on a smaller degree. Within wave 3, the first sub-wave ((i)) reached 5456.9, with a dip in wave ((ii)) to 5101.63. The index climbed again in wave ((iii)) to 5700.7, followed by a minor pullback in wave ((iv)) to 5578.64. We anticipate the index will extend higher to complete wave ((v)) of 3, followed by a wave 4 correction. Then the Index should do one final push to finish wave 5 of (1). After this, a broader correction from the April 7, 2025 low is expected in wave (2) before the uptrend resumes. As long as the 4823.5 pivot holds, any near-term pullbacks should find support in a 3, 7, or 11-swing pattern, paving the way for further gains. This analysis, rooted in Elliott Wave theory, suggests a bullish outlook for the SPX in the near term, provided key support levels remain intact.

S&P 500 (SPX) 60 Minute Elliott Wave Chart

SPX Video Analysis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQpDAUFG9i0

US President Trump reignited risk-on sentiment across global markets on 8 May, coinciding with the announcement of a US–UK trade deal framework. During a White House press Q&A, he hinted at the possibility of lowering China tariffs if upcoming trade talks in Switzerland go well. He added, “You better go out and buy stock now,” echoing a similar statement from 9 April: “This is a great time to buy.”

US equities surged on the remarks, led by mega-cap tech and small-cap stocks. The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.9%, and the Russell 2000 jumped 2.5% intraday. However, a wave of late-session profit-taking trimmed gains, with the S&P 500 ending up 0.6%, down from an earlier 1.6% rise.

The renewed risk appetite also buoyed the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.8%, climbing above its 20-day moving average, and extended its gains by another 0.2% in the current Asian session.

Safe-haven demand weakened, with gold (XAU/USD) falling for the second straight session, closing down 1.7% in the US. In today’s Asian trade, it initially dropped a further 0.9% to an intraday low of $3,275 but has since reversed course to post a 0.4% gain at the time of writing.

Asian equity markets opened mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 1.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index posted a modest 0.2% gain, while China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.2%.

Economic data releases

Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asian mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)

Chart of the day – Nasdaq 100 bulls may face a roadblock at the key 200-day MA

Fig 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index minor trend as of 9 May 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Yesterday’s intraday swift rally on the US Nasdaq100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures), ex-post US President Trump’s “you better go out and buy stock now” remark, has now started to display signs of fatigue right below its key 200-day moving average.

The hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed out a bearish divergence condition at its overbought region, which suggests yesterday’s US session bullish momentum has waned.

Watch the 20,250/390 medium-term pivotal resistance on the US Nasdaq100 CFD Index for a potential minor slide to expose near-term support of 19,600, and a break below it may expose the next intermediate supports at 19,345 and 19,020 (see Fig 2).

However, a clearance above 20,390 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further potential recovery towards the next intermediate resistances at 20,630 and 21,055.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.63; (P) 192.57; (R1) 194.20; More...

GBP/JPY is staying in range below 19372 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 189.97 support intact, further rise is favor. Above 193.72 will resume the rally from 184.35 and target 195.95 resistance next. However, firm break of 189.97 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.92; (P) 163.41; (R1) 164.33; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment, and further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, above 164.61 will resume the rise from 154.77 to 100% projection of 154.77 to 164.16 from 158.27 at 167.66. However, sustained break of 161.57 support will turn bias back to the downside for 158.27 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8450; (P) 0.8486; (R1) 0.8512; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 0.8539 resistance will indicate that fall from 0.8737 has completed as a correction, after defending 55 D EMA (now at 0.8462). Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retest 0.8737 resistance. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will suggest that whole rise from 0.8221 has already complete and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) should have completed at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.9201 key support (2024 low). Rise from 0.8221 is likely reversing the whole fall. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8472 resistance turned support holds. However, firm break of 0.8472 will argue that the down trend hasn't completed yet.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7490; (P) 1.7560; (R1) 1.7616; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.7886 resistance will argue that fall from 1.8553 has completed as a correction at 1.7380. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.8554. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.7431) will target 61.8% retracement at 1.6953.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress for 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. Firm break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.9806, which is close to 1.9799 (2020 high). Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9303; (P) 0.9326; (R1) 0.9362; More....

Range trading continues in EUR/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, above 0.9445 will resume the rebound from 0.9218, either as a corrective move or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. However, break of 0.9274 will suggest that that recovery has completed, and bring retest of 0.9204/18 support zone.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9555) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3847; (P) 1.3890; (R1) 1.3966; More...

USD/CAD's break of 1.3903 resistance indicates short term bottoming at 1.3749, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, ahead of 1.3727 fibonacci level. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.4150 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3749 at 1.4147). For now, risk will remain on the upside as long as 1.3749 holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4150 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6375; (P) 0.6420; (R1) 0.6445; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.6511 will resume the rise from 0.5913 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 0.6364 support should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6511 at 0.6283.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6443) holds, the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) should resume later to 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. However, sustained trading above 55 W EMA will argue that a medium term bottom was already formed, and set up further rebound to 0.6941 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.18; (P) 145.18; (R1) 146.91; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with breach of 145.90 resistance. Rise from 139.87 is resuming for 38.2% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 147.12. Rejection by 147.12 will retain near term bearishness. Break of 142.34 support will bring retest of 139.87. However, sustained break of 147.12 will indicate near term reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 151.60.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.