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Asian markets started the week calmly, with investors waiting for updates on US trade talks and possible new stimulus measures from China before making big moves.

A regional index gained 0.6%, while S&P 500 futures dropped 0.6%, hinting that the recent four-day rally in US markets might be slowing down. Gold fell by as much as 1.6% as traders sold off, feeling its recent surge was overdone. Meanwhile, Treasuries and the Dollar stayed steady, but cryptocurrency prices declined.

Investors are watching for signs of progress in US trade discussions, especially after Trump indicated he’s unlikely to delay his planned tariffs again. Export-reliant Asian economies, which have faced tough US tariffs, seem to be negotiating more effectively than their Western counterparts.

Chinese authorities continue to state that there have been no calls with the US over a trade deal. Chinese officials said they plan to provide more support for jobs and the economy. They are confident the government will hit its economic goals this year. The PBOC also promised to keep enough money flowing in the market and will lower banks' reserve requirements and interest rates when needed.

The dollar stayed stable on Monday as investors anxiously awaited updates on U.S. trade policy and a busy week of economic reports that might show the impact of Trump's trade war.

For a full breakdown on the week ahead read Markets weekly outlook - Data dump ahead as tariff concerns linger

Currently at 143.69/yen and 1.1325/euro, the dollar has steadied but remains on track for its biggest monthly drop in over two years due to shaken confidence in U.S. assets under Trump’s policies.

Currency Strength Chart, Strongest - Weakest: USD, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD, EUR, NZD, CHF

Source: FinancialJuice

Oil prices rose slightly this morning as the market stayed cautious about ongoing U.S.-China trade talks.

Gold prices slid this morning surrendering the $3300/oz handle to trade at $3285/oz at the time of writing. Risks for Gold have shifted to the downside as optimism around a trade deal remains.

Market participants are starting to believe that the worst may be behind us where tariffs are concerned and this will make it difficult for Gold bulls in the short- term.
Economic data releases

From a data standpoint, it’s a bit of a quiet start to the week as traders brace for a barrage of data releases starting Wednesday. In the interim overall sentiment will be the primary market driver.

Chart of the day - DAX

From a technical standpoint, the DAX has continued its advance in line with other risk assets.

The index is currently testing a key level of resistance at 22405 with a daily candle close above likely opening up further upside.

Immediate resistance rests at 22620 before the 22800 and 23200 handle come into focus.

For now immediate support is provided by the 50-day MA at 22282 before the 22000 and 21600 handles come into focus.

DAX Daily Chart, April 28, 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Market Picture

The crypto market capitalisation has been hovering around $2.97 trillion since the end of last week. The market has recovered to its 200-day moving average, but is hesitant to overcome it, as we see in the case of Bitcoin. The sentiment in the markets is neutral. It seems that players prefer to move upwards with relatively long stops.

Bitcoin is stabilising near $94,500, having fully recovered to the consolidation levels seen in February before its sharp decline. The technical outlook remains bullish, with BTCUSD trading above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Both indicators are trending upward, and last week’s consolidation above these levels marked a strong move, reinforcing the bullish momentum.

Ethereum is struggling with resistance in the form of the 50-day moving average near $1800 for the sixth day. Over the past couple of years, ETH has reacted strongly to movements around this curve: accelerating gains when breaking above it and facing significant pressure when falling below it. At the same time, there is a test of the resistance line of the descending channel, within which the movement has been going on since the second half of December.

News Background

QCP Capital noted that the bitcoin options market is currently dominated by call options with $95,000 strike prices for the end of April and May, suggesting that risk appetite remains strong. Meanwhile, President Trump softened his stance last week, reassuring investors about Fed Chairman Powell’s position and announcing plans to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods.

Bitcoin could rise to $2.4 million by the end of 2030 amid the growing adoption of the asset by institutions and sovereign wealth funds, ARK Invest forecasts in its bullish scenario. BTC will reach $1.2m in the baseline scenario and $500,000 in the bearish scenario. The analysis is based on calculations of the total target market (TAM), penetration rate and issuance of the first cryptocurrency.

The year 2025 could be a breakthrough year in institutional adoption of blockchain technology, with stablecoins being one of the drivers. Citigroup forecasts that their capitalisation by 2030 could grow to $1.6 trillion in a base case scenario and $3.7 trillion in a bullish scenario.

The US Federal Reserve announced the cancellation of guidelines that have deterred banks from dealing with digital assets. According to the statement, the regulator will stop requiring prior notification from financial institutions about plans or ongoing transactions with cryptocurrencies.

Higher infrastructure spending in Germany will offer some support to Europe’s growth outlook, but it won’t be enough to offset the damage caused by US tariffs, according to Alfred Kammer, director of the European department at the IMF.

Speaking to CNBC, Kammer stressed that "it’s the tariffs and the trade tensions which weigh on the outlook rather than the positive effects on the fiscal side."

He noted that the IMF has delivered a "meaningful downgrade" to growth forecasts for Europe’s advanced economies and an even steeper downgrade for the emerging Eurozone countries over the next two years. The IMF cut its Eurozone growth forecasts by -0.2% for each of the next two years, now projecting growth of just 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.

Kammer also outlined a clear policy recommendation for ECB. Acknowledging the success of the disinflation efforts, he suggested that ECB has room for "one more 25-basis-point cut in the summer," after which it should hold rates steady at around 2%, barring major shocks.

The price of gold fell on Monday, dropping to 3,290 USD per troy ounce amid easing market tensions.

Key factors driving gold’s decline

The sell-off in the safe-haven asset was driven by reduced risk aversion, as trade tensions between the US and China showed signs of easing. This weakened gold’s appeal as a traditional hedge against uncertainty.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump hinted at a potential softening of his tough trade stance towards China, signalling the possibility of tariff negotiations. On Friday, China exempted certain US goods from its 25% tariffs, though Beijing stopped short of confirming any scheduled trade talks with Washington.

Additional downward pressure came from a strengthening US dollar, which made dollar-priced gold more expensive for foreign investors.

Upcoming US economic data in focus. This week, a raft of key US economic indicators will be released, including:

• The first estimate of Q1 2025 GDP
• Core PCE inflation data for March
• April employment figures

These reports could provide fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves and the broader economic outlook.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is forming the fifth structure in the first wave of decline to the 3,232 level. A move to this target level seems likely. Further, a correction to the level of 3,365 is possible. After completing this correction, a new wave of decline to the 3,100 level is probable. The target is local. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line under the zero level and directed strictly downwards.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD has formed a consolidation range around the level of 3,300, and with an exit down, a decline to 3,232 is probable. Today, the fifth wave of the decline to at least 3,232 seems highly likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is under the 50 level and directed strictly downwards to the 20 level.

Conclusion

Gold remains vulnerable to further losses amid improving US-China trade sentiment and a stronger dollar. Traders will closely monitor upcoming US data for further directional cues.

French ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau expressed confidence today that there is no imminent recession risk for either France or Europe, while inflation continues to decline.

Speaking to RTL Radio, Villeroy also reaffirmed that the ECB retains "a gradual margin for rate cuts", despite global uncertainties.

Villeroy also issued a strong warning about the risks stemming from US trade policies. He criticized the administration's protectionist stance, saying it was "playing against the US economy and unfortunately also against the world economy."

He stressed that protectionism ultimately leads to "less growth and more inflation."

Despite the fact that President Trump’s earlier decision to impose tariffs (at higher rates than expected) shook the stock markets, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) could still end April without significant losses (currently trading less than 2% below the month’s opening level) or even achieve a positive result.

According to media reports, around 180 S&P 500 companies are expected to release their quarterly earnings this week, including Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Coca-Cola (KO), Eli Lilly (LLY), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Chevron (CVX).

The share prices of these major companies — some of the largest by market capitalisation — could have a substantial impact on the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), given that their combined weight accounts for approximately a quarter of the index calculation.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart

Based on the key price actions marked on the chart, we can identify a descending trend channel for the US stock market, which has been in effect since mid-February.

At the same time, the price has:

→ moved into the upper half of this channel, reaching its upper boundary;

→ found support around the median line (as evidenced by the price action on 21 April).

These are bullish signs, reinforced by the aggressive nature of the rebound from the psychological 5,000-point level, which acted as significant support in the first few days following the tariff announcement. Bears may still see an attractive opportunity to attempt to resume the downward momentum of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), but will the fundamental backdrop support such a move?

From an optimistic perspective, sharp impulses driven by corporate news could lead to a breakout above the upper boundary of the red channel. This would likely be facilitated by important announcements (particularly from senior officials in the US, China, and Europe) regarding de-escalation of the tariff situation.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.23; (P) 190.98; (R1) 192.00; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 184.35 would target 195.95 resistance next. Firm break there will suggest that choppy decline from 199.79 has also finished too. On the downside, below 189.28 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.27; (P) 163.01; (R1) 164.02; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, firm break of 164.16 will resume whole rise from 154.77. Next target will be 100% projection of 154.77 to 164.16 from 158.27 at 167.66. However, break of 158.27 will bring deeper fall back to 154.40/77 support zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8515; (P) 0.8532; (R1) 0.8552; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral for the moment. Further rise is expected as long as 0.8518 support holds. On the upside, 0.8622 minor resistance will bring retest of 0.8737 first. Firm break there will resume the larger rally from 0.8221. However, sustained break of 0.8518 will bring deeper fall back to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8450).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) should have completed at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.9201 key support (2024 low). Rise from 0.8221 is likely reversing the whole fall. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8472 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7672; (P) 1.7743; (R1) 1.7835; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Corrective pattern from 1.8554 could extend, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.8854 at 1.7750. On the upside, above 1.8014 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.8554 first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. However, firm break of 1.7750 will bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 1.7369).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress for 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. Firm break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.9806, which is close to 1.9799 (2020 high). Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds even in case of deep pullback.