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Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a downside correction from the 1.1575 zone.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.1250 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD corrected some gains and traded below 1.3300.
• Gold prices dipped sharply from the record high and traded below $3,300.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro gained pace for a move above the 1.1500 level against the US Dollar. EUR/USD tested the 1.1575 zone and recently started a downside correction.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below the 1.1500 support zone. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0732 low to the 1.1573 high. However, the pair is still well above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1250 on the same chart. The trend line is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0732 low to the 1.1573 high.

On the downside, immediate support sits near the 1.1300 level. The next key support sits near the 1.1260 level and the trend line. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.1200 level.

If there is a fresh increase, the pair could face resistance near the 1.1420 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1450 zone. A close above the 1.1450 level could set the tone for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could even clear the 1.1500 resistance.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair corrected some gains below 1.3300 but the bulls might remain active above the 1.3280 level.

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EUR/USD edged higher to 1.1572 last week but retreated since then. A short term top could be formed on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Deeper decline is in favor this week. Nevertheless, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039 to contain downside. On the upside, break of 1.1572 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0776) holds.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal is building up. Sustained break of falling channel resistance (now at around 1.1299) will argue that the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has completed at 0.9534. A medium term up trend should then follow even as a corrective move. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019.

USD/JPY edged lower to 139.87 last week but recovered since then. A short term bottom could be formed on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Further rise is expected this week for 38.2% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 147.12. However, break of 141.51 minor support will bring retest of 139.87 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the long term picture, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 137.19 and even below.

GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3422 last week but retreated ahead of 1.3433 resistance. A short term top could be formed on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Deeper decline is in favor this week. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3422 at 1.2917. On the upside, firm break of 1.3433 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3433 are seen as a corrective pattern to the up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2099 could be the second leg. Overall, GBP/USD should target 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high) on break of 1.3433 at a later stage.

In the long term picture, price actions from 1.0351 (2022 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.4248 structural resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

USD/CHF edged lower to 0.8038 last week but recovered. A short term bottom could be formed on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Further rise is in favor this week as long as 0.8196 minor support holds. Nevertheless, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.8038 at 0.8482. On the downside, below 0.8196 minor support will bring retest of 0.8038. Firm break there will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8801) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the down trend. But in either case, sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6438 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Further rally is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6296) holds. Above 0.6438 will resume the rebound from 0.5913 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6443) holds, the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) should resume later to 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. However, sustained trading above 55 W EMA will argue that a medium term bottom was already formed, and set up further rebound to 0.6941 resistance instead.

In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.6764) is taken as a bearish signal. But for now, fall from 0.8006 is still seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal.

USD/CAD edged lower to 1.3780 last week but recovered since then. A short term bottom could be formed on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Further rebound is in favor this week. However, upside should be limited by 1.4150 support turned resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3780 at 1.4166). On the downside, firm break of 1.3780 will resume the whole fall from 1.4791.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4150 resistance turned support holds. firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.

In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3464) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term down trend should then follow.

GBP/JPY's rebound from 184.35 resumed last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 195.95 resistance next. Firm break there will suggest that choppy decline from 199.79 has also finished too. On the downside, below 189.28 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

In the longer term picture, while a medium term top was formed at 208.09 (2024 high), it's still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But GBP/JPY is at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 175.27).

EUR/JPY's rebound from 158.27 extended higher last week but upside is limited below 164.16 so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 164.16 will resume whole rise from 154.77. Next target will be 100% projection of 154.77 to 164.16 from 158.27 at 167.66. However, break of 158.27 will bring deeper fall back to 154.40/77 support zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 149.44).