Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7121; (P) 1.7171; (R1) 1.7256; More...

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation below 1.7417 and intraday bias stays neutral. Downside of retreat should be contained by 0.6990 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.7417 will resume rise from 1.6335 to 161.8% projection of 1.5963 to 1.6800 from 1.6355 at 1.7709 next.

In the bigger picture, the breach of 1.7180 key resistance (2024 high) suggests that up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is resuming. Sustained trading above 1.7180 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.7682, which is also close to 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.7691. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.6800 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.72; (P) 163.45; (R1) 164.14; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Rise from 154.77, as another rising leg in the consolidation from 154.40, should target 164.89 resistance. On the downside, below 162.34 will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.52; (P) 194.22; (R1) 194.80; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 194.73 will extend the rise from 187.04 to 198.94/199.79 resistance zone. On the downside, below 193.09 support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. Overall, corrective pattern from 208.09 is still in progress, with price actions from 180.00 as the second leg.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4272; (P) 1.4296; (R1) 1.4323; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 1.4238 support will argue that corrective pattern from 1.4791 has started the third leg already. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 1.4150 support and below. On the upside, though, break of 1.4541 will resume the rebound from 1.4150, as the second leg of the pattern.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with prior breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6340; (P) 0.6365; (R1) 0.6387; More...

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained break of 0.6407 will resume the rebound from 0.6087 to 100% projection of 0.6087 to 0.6407 from 0.6186 at 0.6506, even still as a corrective move. On the downside, below 0.6268 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6186 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6482) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.89; (P) 149.42; (R1) 149.81; More...

While USD/JPY's rebound from 146.52 might extend, upside should be limited by 150.92 support turned resistance. On the downside, below 148.22 minor support will bring retest of 146.52 low first. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will pave the way to 139.57 support. However, decisive break of 150.92 will dampen this bearish view and turn bias to the upside for 154.79 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8744; (P) 0.8782; (R1) 0.8805; More…

USD/CHF is staying above 0.8757 support despite current dip. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8911 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 0.8757 will resume the fall from 0.9200 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8690. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 0.8374 support.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2967; (P) 1.2988; (R1) 1.3025; More...

GBP/USD's rally from 1.2099 is still in progress, and further rise should be seen to retest 1.3433 high. On the downside, break of 1.2910 support will indicate short term topping, likely with bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. That would turn intraday bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0907; (P) 1.0931; (R1) 1.0969; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 1.0176 should target 1.1274 key resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.0821 support will indicate short term topping, likely with bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. That will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0675) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.

Dollar remains under pressure as markets await FOMC rate decision and, more crucially, the updated economic projections. While the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.25-4.50%, traders are looking for any signs that Fed officials are adjusting their outlook in response to mounting trade tensions. Meanwhile, US stocks saw another selloff overnight, led by the tech sector, though major indexes have so far held above last week’s lows. Sentiment remains fragile, and any dovish elements in Fed’s projections could trigger another round of risk aversion and Dollar weakness. However, the biggest market move may be on hold until April 2, when the final decision on reciprocal tariffs is expected.

Japanese Yen is also soft in a tight range after BoJ left monetary policy unchanged earlier today. While this decision was widely anticipated, some market participants noted that the earlier-than-usual timing of the announcement suggested that the BoJ was not yet ready to accelerate rate hikes. Yen has also weakened this week on broader risk-on sentiment in Asia, despite the selloff in US equities.

On the other hand, Euro remains firm, though lacking decisive upside momentum. Germany’s parliament approved the massive fiscal expansion plan yesterday, marking a historic departure from the country’s long-standing fiscal conservatism. This move has given CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz a significant political boost as he continues talks with the Social Democrats to form a centrist coalition government. While some economists argue that Germany’s fiscal expansion is the most significant since reunification, they also warned that structural reforms will be necessary to turn this spending into sustainable growth.

Looking at currency performance this week, Kiwi is leading gains, followed by Swiss Franc and Aussie. In contrast, Yen remains the weakest performer, followed by Dollar and Sterling. Euro and Loonie are positioned in the middle of the pack.

Technically, CHF/JPY is among the top movers this week so far. The extended rebound and firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 162.27) suggests that fall from 177.29 has completed at 165.83 already. The whole corrective pattern from 180.05 might have finished too. Further rise is now expected to trend line resistance at 173.95 first. Firm break there will solidify this bullish case and target 177.29/180.05 resistance zone next.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.03%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.09%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.18%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.34%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.011 at 1.517. Overnight, DOW fell -0.62%. S&P 500 fell -1.07%. NASDAQ fell -1.71%. 10-year yield fell -0.025 to 4.281.

BoJ holds rates, flags exchange rate as key inflation factor

BoJ kept its uncollateralized overnight call rate unchanged at around 0.50%, as widely expected.

In its statement, BoJ noted that growth is expected to remain above potential, while inflation progress remains on track toward its 2% target. However, policymakers flagged high levels of uncertainty, particularly citing global trade tensions and policy shifts in major economies as key risks.

A notable shift in BoJ’s tone was its heightened focus on exchange rate movements as a key factor influencing inflation. The central bank acknowledged that with firms increasingly raising wages and prices, exchange rate developments are, compared to the past, "more likely to affect prices".

This suggests that further depreciation in Yen could accelerate price increases, and influence future monetary policy decisions.

Japan’s export rises 11.4% yoy in Feb, up for fifth straight month

Japan’s exports surged 11.4% yoy to JPY 9,191B in February, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, driven by strong demand from both the US and China. Exports to the US rose 10.5% yoy, while shipments to China saw an even stronger 14.1% yoy increase.

Meanwhile, imports declined by -0.7% yoy, marking their first drop in three months, as demand for crude oil and coal weakened. This shift in trade dynamics helped Japan return to a trade surplus of JPY 584.5B, the first positive balance in two months.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports rose 4.0% mom to JPY 9,688B, while imports fell -4.1% mom to JPY 9,505B, leading to a JPY 182B surplus.

Fed to stand pat, watch for signs of trade war fallout in new projections

Fed is set to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50% today. The focus will be on the updated economic projections, which may drop hints that Fed is beginning to pre-empt a full-blown trade war into its outlook. Additionally, another key element to watch will be the closely followed “dot plot”, which will reveal whether Fed still expects two rate cuts this year.

Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference is important as usual, as he will need to balance Fed’s current economic assessment with the risks posed by US President Donald Trump’s trade policy. However, with no details on the big event of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, Powell is unlikely to offer any concrete guidance. Instead, he may just reiterate the central bank’s stance that it is “in no hurry” to cut rates and emphasize a data-dependent approach.

Currently, Fed fund futures indicate that June and September are the most likely timing for policy easing.

One key market reaction to watch will be 10-year Treasury yield, which recovery has clearly lost momentum well ahead of 55 D EMA (now at 4.389). Any dovish tilt from Fed today could push yields back toward 4.106 support. That would in turn keep Dollar under pressure.

Though, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 3.603 to 4.809 at 4.063 is not anticipated for now, at least until the tariff picture is cleared or there are more signs of recession in the US. On the upside, any rebound should be limited by 55 D EMA.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0907; (P) 1.0931; (R1) 1.0969; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 1.0176 should target 1.1274 key resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.0821 support will indicate short term topping, likely with bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. That will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0675) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.