Sample Category Title

• EUR/USD sends bullish signals above 50-day SMA.
• A break above 1.0500 could bolster buying appetite.
• ECB rate decision due on Thursday, 13:15 GMT.

EUR/USD opened the week with a slight gap lower at 1.0473 after running as high as 1.0520 on Friday. The pullback, however, could be temporary.

While a sustainable move above the 1.0500 level might be necessary for a continuation higher, Friday’s close above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)– the first since October – is feeding hopes that the bulls could roar back. If the pair decisively holds above this line, there is potential for an extension towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022-2023 uptrend at 1.0611. Then, the focus could turn to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) currently seen near 1.0770.

The positive trajectory in the RSI and the MACD adds weight to the bullish scenario, though with the stochastic oscillator hovering within overbought zone, downside pressures cannot be ruled out, especially if the price dives below the support area of 1.0385-1.0400. If the bears breach this floor, the 20-day SMA may immediately come to the rescue near 1.0340. Otherwise, the price could tumble toward the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.0260, and even slide into the 1.0168-1.0200 area, where the support line from February 2024 is sitting.

In summary, EUR/USD is maintaining a bullish stance in the short-term picture despite today’s minor pullback. A close above 1.0500 could provide the confirmation needed for a march higher. However, traders should keep an eye on downside risks if a dip below 1.0384-1.0400 takes place.

Bitcoin was sharply down and dipped below psychological 100K support in early Monday trading.

The price dropped around 6% in Asian session, in the biggest session drop in a weeks, mainly driven by risk-off selling.

Fresh drop weakened near-term structure, fueling risk of further losses, particularly if bears sustain break below 100K, although will face another significant supports which guard key 90K support zone.

On the other hand, larger picture shows that broader bulls remain in a consolidation phase and probably preparing for fresh push higher, as overall sentiment is positive, and traders await signals from Trump’s administration about promised overhaul and liberalizing of crypto market regulations in the US.

From this perspective, today’s drop looks like positioning for fresh rally, but price needs to hold above 90K breakpoint, to keep bullish stance.

It will be also interesting to watch January’s close, after Bitcoin repeatedly failed to register monthly close above 100K last month.

Another failure would signal prolonged sideways mode but also signal growing downside risk on formation of a double bull-trap above 100K on monthly chart.

Res: 100000; 101734; 102771; 104734
Sup: 97645; 96886; 93887; 91189

USDJPY, Daily

In the Daily timeframe, USDJPY sharply broke the lower trend line of the rising wedge. The lips crossed the jaw of the Alligator, and the Chaikin dropped below 0. In this case, the beginning of a bearish trend is possible, but we need to wait for confirmation.

• We can consider selling USDJPY ONLY on consolidation below 154,000 support with a target of 152,000;

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9458; (P) 0.9488; (R1) 0.9539; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral first with today's steep retreat. On the downside, firm break of 0.9242 support will indicate rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481. Deeper fall would then be seen back to channel support (now at 0.9373). However, strong rebound from current level will keep the choppy rally from 0.9204 intact.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.9928 should have completed at 0.9204 with the current strong rebound, after failing to sustain below 0.9252 (2023 low). It's still early to confirm long term bullish reversal. But even as a corrective move, current rebound could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9651. On the downside, firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9387) will maintain medium term bearishness and bring retest of 0.9204 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8388; (P) 0.8425; (R1) 0.8447; More...

Focus remains on 0.8403 support in EUR/GBP. Sustained break there will confirm short term topping at 0.8472, and bring deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8350). On the upside, though, break of 0.8472 will resume the rally from 0.8221 to 0.8624 key cluster resistance zone next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.8201 key support (2022 low). Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.8442) will pave the way to 0.8624 cluster zone (38.2% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8621), even just as a correction to the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But still, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.8621/4 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6549; (P) 1.6596; (R1) 1.6674; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as it's staying in range below 1.6800. In case of another dip, strong support is still expected from 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.6800 at 1.6480 to contain downside. On the upside, firm break of 1.6800 will resume the rally from 1.5963. However, sustained break of 1.6480 will bring deeper correction 61.8% retracement at 1.6283 instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is holding on to 1.5996 key support (2024 low) despite brief breach. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5996 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 192.93; (P) 193.88; (R1) 195.67; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral again with today's deep retreat. Overall outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 180.00 might extend. On the upside above 194.73 will target 198.94/197.79 resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 192.05 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 189.31 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0431; (P) 1.0476; (R1) 1.0541; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 1.0176 is still in progress. Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 will raise the chance of bullish reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0817. On the downside break of 1.0371 minor support will retain near term bearishness and bring retest of 1.0176 low.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed as fall from 1.1274 (2023 high) could either be the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low), or another down leg of the long term down trend. Strong support from 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 will favor the former case, and sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0722) will argue that the third leg might have started. However, sustained trading below 1.0199 will favor the latter case and bring retest of 0.9534 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2383; (P) 1.2442; (R1) 1.2543; More...

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.2099 short term bottom continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Strong resistance could be seen 38.2% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2609, to limit upside. However, sustained trading above 1.2609 will raise the chance of reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2923. On the downside, below 1.2375 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433 (2024 high), and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move. However, firm break of 1.2810 will dampen this bearish view and bring retest of 1.3433 high instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.03; (P) 155.81; (R1) 156.77; More...

USD/JPY's fall from 158.86 short term top resumed by breaking through 154.77 today. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 151.49. Sustained break there will suggest that whole rally from 138.57 has completed already. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 156.74 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.