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USD/CHF's extended fall last week argues that rebound from 0.7603 has completed as a corrective move to 0.8041. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7770 will pave the way to retest 0.7603 low. On the upside, above 0.7844 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8068) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

AUD/USD's up trend resumed by breaking through 0.7187 last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. On the downside, below 0.7151 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

In the long term picture, rise from 0.5913 is seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It's still early to judge if this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But in either case, further rise should be seen back to 0.8006 and possibly above. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6714) holds.

USD/CAD's extended decline last suggests that rise from 1.3480 has completed with three waves up to 1.3965. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.3965 at 1.3665 will pave the way to retest 1.3480 low. On the upside, above 1.3736 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3590) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.

GBP/JPY's pullback from 215.89 accelerated lower last week, but downside is contained above 213.29 resistance turned support. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Firm break of 215.89 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 204.10) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 184.82) holds.

EUR/JPY's sharp reversal last week suggests that a short term top was already formed at 187.93. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 182.56 to 187.93 at 185.87. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 187.93 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 180.78 support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA (now at 176.94) holds.

EUR/GBP gyrated in range below 0.8740 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 0.8675 support holds, further rise remains mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 0.8740 will resume the rally from 0.8610 to 0.8788 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8675 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8610 low instead.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's fall from 1.6842 resumed last week. Outlook is unchanged that rebound from 1.6125 should have completed after rejection by 55 D EMA. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for retesting 1.6125 low. Firm break there will resume whole down trend from 1.8554 to 1.5913 fibonacci level next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6667 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7157) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6601) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.

EUR/CHF's sideway consolidation continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week. With 0.9155 support intact, further rally is still expected. Firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rise from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9280) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

In the long term picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9407 support turned resistance (2022 low) holds. However, firm break of 0.9407 will argue that the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed with five waves down to 0.8979. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 0.8979 at 1.0135 in the medium term.

Monday, Apr 20, 2026

Tuesday, Apr 21, 2026

Wednesday, Apr 22, 2026

Thursday, Apr 23, 2026

Friday, Apr 24, 2026

• Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.
• Markets conclude a very volatile week, with hopes for peace going back and forth and sentiment losing its head
• Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.

Week in review – A proper peace process unfolding, will it lead to an actual deal?

This week has been nothing short of historic.

Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have charged to fresh all-time highs, completely leaving the geopolitical panic behind as traders aggressively price in a proper peace agreement – The move has bulldozed through any type of resistances and prior records, in a move that has left many traders scratching their head.

Only the Dow Jones is looking to catch up to its younger peers, but is already on pace to do so – That is, if the current pricing withstands the weekend.

Nasdaq Daily Chart – April 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView

While the past two weeks of US-Iran negotiations have generated their fair share of chaotic headlines, the diplomatic process unfolding in Pakistan appears genuinely serious, with both sides making significant, market-moving concessions.

The absolute catalyst for the week was this morning's market-rocking news regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Bolstered by President Trump's remarks that he expects a finalized deal in a day or two, the geopolitical risk premium imploded.

WTI 4H Chart – April 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Oil prices collapsed nearly 10% since yesterday, completely erasing their previous rally to trade comfortably right below the $90 handle.

Notably, clear signs of insider trading emerged in the Crude market just before the announcement—a continuation of the wild market craziness that has defined Trump’s second term, but certainly not a first.

Moving forward, physical traders will be closely monitoring the Strait to see if actual tanker flows resume.

The euphoria isn't limited to traditional equities paying out big peace dividends. Cryptocurrencies caught a massive bid, with Bitcoin exploding back to life and rallying to sit just below the $80,000 (~$78,000) mark as the weekend approaches, also boosting other crypto assets.

On the macroeconomic front, the reality of the recent commodity shock is setting in. Both US CPI and PPI inflation reports rose strongly, although optimists will console as they missed their most extreme upside expectations.

However, this energy-driven jump could merely be the beginning of a much more significant inflationary wave hitting the economy over the coming months.

This week will provide fresh insights on inflation in other countries including Japan, Canada and the UK.

Now, participants are bracing for a pivotal week.

The current ceasefire officially expires on April 22 – Without a formal extension or a signed peace deal, this historic progress could vanish in a flash, throwing markets back into extreme volatility.

An actual deal will be mandatory to sustain the rally.

Weekly Performance across Asset Classes

Weekly Asset Performance – April 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView

As you can see, when Oil suffers, everybody dances. Even with the commodity gapping higher at the beginning of the week, Stock Markets have continued to explode higher and shortly after, everything followed.

WTI Crude is down 10% since the beginning of the week, and off 17% from its weekly opening gap.

The most risky assets have naturally outperformed the recovery, with Cryptos (ETH and Altcoins) on top, Silver dominating the Metals market and Nasdaq dominating global Stock benchmarks.

The Week Ahead – Major Inflation data coming up for Canada, the UK and Japan

Traders will have to get ready for a roller-coaster week, with macroeconomic data and major peace headlines on schedule.

Asia Pacific Markets – Japanese Inflation

Japan is under heavy pressure regarding their future monetary policy, and with the Inflation report for March incoming, where the first effects of Energy price hikes will be felt, the moment could be decisive.

The release is expected on Thursday evening (7:30 P.M.) – A large beat could confirm a rate hike at the end-May meeting if economic conditions don't worsen by then.

Bank of Japan representatives did refuse to comment on the issue during the IMF Meeting.

Europe and UK Markets – A Focus on the UK and Germany data

GBP traders will have a lot on their plate in the coming week, with a three-streak combo:

UK Employment, Inflation and Retail Sales, providing insights on the state of the economy and price rises as participants prepare for an economic shock.

Euro traders will have to pay close attention to the ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey and German PMIs that could also reshape forward looking pricing for the Old Continent.

North American Markets – Rare releases in the US, Geopolitics, and Canadian Inflation

The US takes a relative break from economic data, only releasing Retail sales on Tuesday and leaves space for continued price discovery.

Keep in mind that past week movements will be contingent on a sustainable peace deal with Iran, with the talks expected throughout the weekend.

CAD traders will also have to reprice chances of future hikes with Canadian Inflation opening the North American week on Monday.

A 2.5% consensus is announced, but energy price rises could definitely point to a beat on such low expectations.

Next Week's High Tier Economic Events

Next week's Economic Calendar – Courtesy of TradingEconomics

Daily Market Wrap

Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The Hormuz reopening news was icing on a very bullish cake to conclude this extremely positive week.

The heaviest Beta assets did what they did best and kept exploding higher across the Asset map – Cryptos and Silver, finish on top, both up around 3% on average.

US Benchmarks kept extending further to their newfound peaks, with the Dow Jones catching up and concluding the session on top.

On the other side, Crude Oil took a 10% beating after the news, but somewhat bounced as the session went by – Expect a lot of movement in the commodity in the coming week.

Safe Trades and an enjoyable weekend!