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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7717; (P) 0.7742; (R1) 0.7775; More….

Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. Consolidation pattern from 0.7603 is still in progress. In case of stronger rise, upside upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7832) to complete the pattern. On the downside, below 0.7627 will bring retest of 0.7603. Firm break there will resume larger down trend, and target 0.7382 projection level next. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will indicate that a larger scale corrective bounce in underway and target 0.8039 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8123 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3468; (P) 1.3501; (R1) 1.3527; More...

GBP/USD is still bounded in sideway trading above 1.3432 and intraday bias remains neutral. For now, fall from 1.3867 is seen as correcting the whole rise from 1.2099. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3711 resistance holds. Below 1.3432 will target 1.3342 support first. Firm break there will solidify this case, and target 161.8% projection of 1.3867 to 1.3507 from 1.3711 at 1.3129.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3008 support holds, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) should still be in progress for 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3008 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal and target 1.2099 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1762; (P) 1.1798; (R1) 1.1822; More….

EUR/USD is staying in consolidations above 1.1740 and intraday bias remains neutral. Near term risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.1928 resistance holds. Below 1.1740 temporary low will target 1.1576 support next. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2 key psychological level and turn near term outlook bearish. However, break of 1.1928 argue that fall from 1.2081 has completed as a correction, and revive near term bullishness. Retest of 1.2081 should then be seen next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1494) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Yen came under marked pressure in otherwise subdued trading, with the move driven less by global risk appetite and more by domestic political developments. The catalyst was a reported shift in tone from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who is said to have voiced direct opposition to further rate hikes in discussions with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.

The signal triggered a repricing in rate expectations. Markets that had leaned toward an April move from the BoJ are now pushing that timeline back toward June at the earliest. The adjustment was enough to send USD/JPY higher and weigh broadly on Yen crosses. The political angle matters. If Tokyo is signaling reluctance to tighten further, the BoJ’s path toward normalization becomes more constrained. That tension between monetary independence and political priorities is now being reflected in FX markets.

At the same time, Aussie is also softer as traders position ahead of January’s Monthly CPI Indicator due tomorrow. Although senior officials at the RBA continue to emphasize quarterly data, the monthly print remains a key guide for near-term rate expectations.

Consensus sees headline CPI easing to 3.7% from 3.8% in December. However, the “danger zone” lies in a repeat or upside surprise. A reading of 3.8% or higher would suggest that the RBA’s recent hike to 3.85% may not have been sufficient to curb underlying pressures. Even more important will be the trimmed mean measure, which stood at 3.3% previously. Any upward move in core inflation would significantly raise the probability of another hike in May, reversing today's AUD weakness.

Meanwhile, Dollar is mildly firmer as markets look ahead to US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address. While the speech is expected to be wide-ranging, traders will focus on any references to tariff policy and tensions with Iran.

On a weekly basis, Swiss Franc leads performance, followed by Sterling and Dollar. Aussie sits at the bottom, trailed by Yen and Kiwi, while Euro and Loonie trade in the middle of the pack.

Fed's Bostic: Lean into structural change, not rate cuts

Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told said the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence may push the US into a period of structurally higher unemployment. In an interview with Reuters, he suggested that firms may simply need fewer workers, raising the level of joblessness considered consistent with full employment.

Rather than attempting to artificially suppress unemployment with rate cuts, Bostic argued policymakers should recognize structural shifts and set rates accordingly. “This is a very hard time to be a central banker,” he said, noting that the same economic indicators may now carry different implications as technological change reshapes the labor market.

With inflation still above target, Bostic warned that easing policy to counter structural forces could lead to both higher inflation and misaligned employment signals. "To address short-run issues that are structural in nature could put us at risk of a much more difficult situation, where both of our mandate measures seem to be moving in the wrong direction," Bostic said.

He steps down as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta at the end of his term on February 28.

Takaichi caps rate hopes, USD/JPY jumps; Is intervention at next?

Yen tumbled broadly after reports that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed reluctance to raise interest rates further during her February 16 meeting with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. The report, carried by Mainichi Shimbun and citing multiple unnamed sources, suggested a firmer stance against tightening than previously seen.

According to the report, Takaichi emphasized that monetary policy must not “extinguish the fire” of economic recovery supported by her administration’s stimulus measures. Her position was described as stricter than at the prior November 2025 meeting.

The BoJ is widely viewed as recognizing the need for further tightening to normalize the financial system and address persistent Yen weakness. Yet with Takaichi strengthened politically after a landslide lower house victory, the balance between monetary independence and political priorities is under scrutiny.

The timing of the leak is notable. With Japan’s annual Shunto wage negotiations due in March, markets have been pricing a high probability of the next rate hike in Q2, particularly April. The deliberate nature of the Mainichi report suggests an attempt by the administration to cap rate expectations ahead of wage outcomes.

March has already been seen as too early for a move, as policymakers would prefer to assess wage negotiation results first. But if Takaichi’s reluctance proves durable, June may become the more realistic window for any additional tightening.

This creates an inherent policy tension. Takaichi seeks to avoid choking off recovery through higher rates, yet Japan also faces pressure from a weakening Yen. Balancing lower borrowing costs with currency stability presents a narrowing path.

Some analysts speculate that if rate hikes are delayed, authorities may lean more heavily on FX intervention should USD/JPY approach the 160 level, the line in the sand for Takaichi.

Technically, USD/JPY’s sharp jump reinforces the view that recent price action from 159.44 represents a near term sideway consolidation pattern only. The broader uptrend from the 139.87 low in 2025 remains intact, suggesting eventual resumption toward and potentially beyond 159.44 . But then risk of intervention will surge as USD/JPY marches on.

RBA stays focused on quarterly trimmed mean during CPI transition

In a speech today, Michael Plumb, head of economic analysis at the RBA, said the central bank welcomes the introduction of a complete monthly CPI, noting that more frequent and comprehensive data will materially improve the timeliness of its inflation assessment.

However, Plumb cautioned that it will "take us some" time to understand the properties and seasonal patterns of the new monthly series. During the transition, the RBA will continue to "focus on the quarterly data", particularly the quarterly trimmed mean measure, for forecasting and evaluating underlying inflationary pressures.

While maintaining its quarterly focus, the RBA has begun analyzing underlying inflation measures constructed from monthly data. Plumb said policymakers will assess potential biases, seasonal differences, responsiveness to economic conditions, and usefulness as a leading indicator.

The central bank intends to engage widely and communicate transparently before any shift in preferred measures in what he described as a gradual move toward a “post-quarterly CPI world.”

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1762; (P) 1.1798; (R1) 1.1822; More….

EUR/USD is staying in consolidations above 1.1740 and intraday bias remains neutral. Near term risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.1928 resistance holds. Below 1.1740 temporary low will target 1.1576 support next. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2 key psychological level and turn near term outlook bearish. However, break of 1.1928 argue that fall from 1.2081 has completed as a correction, and revive near term bullishness. Retest of 1.2081 should then be seen next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1494) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told said the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence may push the US into a period of structurally higher unemployment. In an interview with Reuters, he suggested that firms may simply need fewer workers, raising the level of joblessness considered consistent with full employment.

Rather than attempting to artificially suppress unemployment with rate cuts, Bostic argued policymakers should recognize structural shifts and set rates accordingly. “This is a very hard time to be a central banker,” he said, noting that the same economic indicators may now carry different implications as technological change reshapes the labor market.

With inflation still above target, Bostic warned that easing policy to counter structural forces could lead to both higher inflation and misaligned employment signals. "To address short-run issues that are structural in nature could put us at risk of a much more difficult situation, where both of our mandate measures seem to be moving in the wrong direction," Bostic said.

He steps down as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta at the end of his term on February 28.

USD/JPY rose to 154.91 on Tuesday. The yen surrendered the previous session's gains, while the dollar found support despite uncertainty over US trade policy.

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump announced his intention to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15%, following a Supreme Court decision that overturned his "reciprocal" duties. He also warned of tougher measures against countries that "play games" with existing trade agreements.

Tokyo urged Washington to ensure that the court's decision does not harm Japanese companies and reaffirmed its commitment to the existing trade agreement with the US.

At the same time, Japanese media reported that US authorities held consultations last month on exchange rate policy to support the yen and are prepared to coordinate possible intervention at Japan's request. The initiative was overseen by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent amid concerns that political uncertainty ahead of Japan's general election could heighten market volatility.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the pair has formed a consolidation range around 154.00. It has now broken out to the upside, opening the way for a move towards 155.75. After reaching this level, a decline towards 151.80 is likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line holding above the zero level while turning clearly downward.

On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the pair has broken above 154.80 and is forming an upward wave structure targeting 155.75. Thereafter, a pullback to 154.70 cannot be ruled out. This scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line positioned above the 80 level and continuing to point firmly upward.

Conclusion

In summary, USD/JPY has resumed its upward momentum, breaking above recent consolidation as the dollar finds support despite escalating trade policy uncertainty. The market is weighing Trump's aggressive tariff stance against signals that US authorities stand ready to support the yen if necessary.

Technically, the pair has cleared near-term resistance and is targeting 155.75, with indicators suggesting further short-term upside potential. However, the broader outlook remains clouded by geopolitical risks and the possibility of coordinated intervention should the yen weaken excessively. A sustained move above 155.75 would open the way towards 157.00, while a reversal below 154.70 could signal a return to range-bound trading.

WTI oil keeps firm tone and holding near new multi-month high ($67.27), with limited negative impact from Monday’s daily candle with long upper shadow, which was created on spike to new high and subsequent quick pullback.

Near-term price action is moving around cracked pivotal barrier at $66.30 (50% retracement of $77.73/$54.87 bear-leg), as fading bullish momentum and overbought stochastic on daily chart, so far sour bullish sentiment and limit gains, although overall picture remains very bullish (DMA’s in full bullish configuration with several bull crosses being formed recently.

Geopolitics, however, remain oil’s key driver nowadays, with growing fears that conflict between the US and Iran can escalate at any time, fueling market anticipation of stronger supply disruption and keeping oil price well supported for now.

Sustained break of $66.30 to open way for renewed attack at weekly cloud top ($67.23) violation of which to generate initial signal of bullish continuation and expose next targets at $69.09 (Fibo 61.8%) and $70 (psychological).

Monday’s low ($65.38) offers solid support), ahead of converged and ascending 10/20 DMAs ($64.70 and $64.38).

Res: 67.23; 68.00; 69.09; 70.00.
Sup: 66.00; 65.38; 64.70; 64.38.

Market Overview

The crypto market cap continues to decline, losing nearly 5.5% over the past 24 hours to $2.19 trillion, practically repeating the extremes of early February. The last time the market was consistently lower was in September 2024. If there is a rebound by the end of the day, we can talk about the formation of a double bottom, which will give hope for a rebound of about 10%. However, a failure to rebound will signal the end of the recovery, opening the potential for a further 25% decline to the 2023 consolidation range.

Bitcoin fell below $63K at the start of the day, going below the previous day’s lows after the recovery rebound stalled. BTCUSD slipped below $60K in early February, but there was a steady tug-of-war near current levels, drawing attention to the outcome of the local battle between bulls and bears. The outcome will determine whether we see a recovery rebound or a new downward momentum. In our view, the market has not yet bottomed out in the bear market, and the real capitulation is still ahead.

News Background

According to CoinShares, global investment in crypto funds fell by $288 million last week, with net outflows observed over the past five weeks. Investments in Bitcoin fell by $215 million, and in Ethereum by $37 million. Investments in XRP rose by $4 million, in Solana by $3 million, and in Chainlink by $1 million.

Large investors who bought Bitcoin in the last six months have accumulated unrealised losses of about $26 billion, according to CryptoQuant. The level of unrealised losses among whales is becoming increasingly alarming.

According to Lookonchain, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is once again selling the second-largest cryptocurrency. Over the past two days, he has sold 1,869 ETH worth $3.67 million.

Bitcoin will fall below $55K, according to 75% of users on the Polymarket prediction platform. Bets on a drop below $50K and $45K are supported by 62% and 47% of traders, respectively.

Bitcoin is experiencing a ‘crisis of confidence’ after falling nearly 50% from its all-time high, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. They estimate that the market sees no new catalysts for growth.

Strategy bought 592 BTC ($39.8 million) last week at an average price of $67,286. Strategy now owns 717,722 BTC, purchased for $54.56 billion at an average price of $76,020.

BitMine acquired 51,162 ETH over the past week. The company already owns 4.42 million coins and has fulfilled 73% of its plan to accumulate 5% of all Ether.

• The market is assessing the impact of tariffs.
• Gold risks entering a consolidation.

The US dollar rode a roller coaster as the Supreme Court cancelled old tariffs and the White House introduced new import duties. Investors are assessing the consequences of these steps for the currency market. MUFG believes that the failure of Donald Trump’s policy will prompt the US administration to weaken the greenback to aggressively boost exports. At the same time, lowering the average tariff rate from 16% to 13.7% will slow inflation and allow the Fed to resume its cycle of rate cuts.

Forex seems to disagree with the bank’s view. EURUSD quotes are falling as the cancellation of tariffs may revive the debate over American exceptionalism. For most of 2025, the US economy grew thanks to investments in artificial intelligence and the associated rise in productivity. Import duties held back this expansion, as American companies and households mostly paid them.

The removal of tariffs could be a form of fiscal stimulus and signal a return to American exceptionalism. This is good news for the US dollar. The White House may have introduced new import duties, but they could also be overturned just like the previous ones.

Support for the bears on EURUSD comes from Christopher Waller’s willingness to join the majority of FOMC officials who support a prolonged pause in the monetary expansion cycle. According to the governor, who voted for rate cuts at the last four Fed meetings, only a significant slowdown in employment in February would cause him to maintain a dovish stance in March.

The Fed’s passivity, coupled with expectations of positive developments in the US economy, provides grounds for EURUSD to continue its peak in the coming weeks. However, the medium-term outlook for the pair looks bullish. Derivatives indicate a 44% probability of three rate cuts by the Fed in 2026.

The strengthening of the US dollar caused gold to retreat after a four-day rally. The precious metal failed to hold the $5,200 per ounce mark as speculators took profits on long positions. The risks of Gold consolidation are growing amid still-high Treasury yields and a strong greenback on the one hand, and high uncertainty on the other.

Yen tumbled broadly after reports that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed reluctance to raise interest rates further during her February 16 meeting with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. The report, carried by Mainichi Shimbun and citing multiple unnamed sources, suggested a firmer stance against tightening than previously seen.

According to the report, Takaichi emphasized that monetary policy must not “extinguish the fire” of economic recovery supported by her administration’s stimulus measures. Her position was described as stricter than at the prior November 2025 meeting.

The BoJ is widely viewed as recognizing the need for further tightening to normalize the financial system and address persistent Yen weakness. Yet with Takaichi strengthened politically after a landslide lower house victory, the balance between monetary independence and political priorities is under scrutiny.

The timing of the leak is notable. With Japan’s annual Shunto wage negotiations due in March, markets have been pricing a high probability of the next rate hike in Q2, particularly April. The deliberate nature of the Mainichi report suggests an attempt by the administration to cap rate expectations ahead of wage outcomes.

March has already been seen as too early for a move, as policymakers would prefer to assess wage negotiation results first. But if Takaichi’s reluctance proves durable, June may become the more realistic window for any additional tightening.

This creates an inherent policy tension. Takaichi seeks to avoid choking off recovery through higher rates, yet Japan also faces pressure from a weakening Yen. Balancing lower borrowing costs with currency stability presents a narrowing path.

Some analysts speculate that if rate hikes are delayed, authorities may lean more heavily on FX intervention should USD/JPY approach the 160 level, the line in the sand for Takaichi.

Technically, USD/JPY’s sharp jump reinforces the view that recent price action from 159.44 represents a near term sideway consolidation pattern only. The broader uptrend from the 139.87 low in 2025 remains intact, suggesting eventual resumption toward and potentially beyond 159.44 . But then risk of intervention will surge as USD/JPY marches on.