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USD/JPY rose to 159.40 on Friday, with the Japanese yen surrendering all the gains accumulated since the beginning of this week. Pressure intensified following comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who failed to provide clear guidance on rates ahead of the next meeting.

Ueda noted that the regulator must balance rising inflation against the risks of an economic slowdown. Ahead of previous rate decisions, he had provided more explicit signals, and the market had expected a similar tone.

At the same time, investors acknowledge that the BoJ may raise its inflation forecasts amid rising energy prices.

Earlier in the week, the yen had strengthened following statements from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama regarding coordination with the US Treasury on foreign exchange policy and a readiness to intervene in the market if necessary.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 159.00 level, currently extending up to 159.25. A move higher towards 159.90 (testing from below) is likely, followed by a possible decline back to the 159.00 level. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below the zero level and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next upward wave towards the 159.60 level. A wave extension to 159.90 is possible. Subsequently, a decline to at least 159.00 is likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above the 80 level and pointing firmly upwards.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has returned to positive territory, with the yen erasing all its weekly gains after BOJ Governor Ueda's ambiguous rate guidance. Markets had anticipated clearer signals ahead of the upcoming meeting, but instead received a balanced assessment of competing inflation and growth risks. While the BoJ may yet raise its inflation forecasts due to higher energy prices, the lack of explicit hawkish communication has weighed on the currency. Earlier intervention warnings from the Finance Minister provided only temporary support. Technically, further upside towards 159.90 appears likely before any potential pullback, with the pair's direction hinging on whether Ueda delivers clearer signals at the April meeting.

Eurozone trade surplus narrowed sharply in February, with the goods balance falling to EUR 11.5B from EUR23.1B a year earlier, as exports declined significantly. Total exports dropped by -6.7% yoy to EUR 232.4B. Imports fell more modestly by -2.2% yoy to EUR 220.9B, pointing to weakening external demand rather than a broad-based slowdown in trade activity.

The deterioration was even more pronounced at the EU level, where the surplus shrank to EUR 9.1B from EUR 22.9B a year earlier. Extra-EU exports declined by -9.3% yoy, outpacing the -3.5% yoy fall in imports.

Breaking down by partners, EU exports to the United States fell sharply by -26.4% yoy, contributing significantly to the overall decline in trade surplus. Exports to China dropped by -16.1% yoy even as imports from China rose by 3.4%, widening the deficit. In contrast, trade with the United Kingdom remained relatively stable.

Full Eurozone and EU trade balance release here.

• USD/CAD extends almost two-week losing streak, drops below 50‑day SMA.
• Elevated oil prices underpin the loonie, weighing on the pair.
• RSI and stochastics slip into negative territory.

USD/CAD is extending its corrective decline from the year‑to‑date high of 1.3965 reached in late March, sliding for a fifth consecutive session and marking nine down days in the past ten. The move has dragged spot prices to more than three‑week lows near 1.3680, last seen on March 23. Elevated oil prices continue to support the commodity‑linked Canadian dollar, keeping pressure on the pair, although a modest USD recovery could help limit further downside amid ongoing US‑Iran talks.

The pair maintains a bearish near‑term bias after slipping below the 50‑day simple moving average (SMA) closely aligned with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the January-March upswing at 1.3724. Momentum indicators point to weakening but stabilising downside pressure, with the RSI falling below its neutral threshold, the stochastics dipping into oversold territory, and the MACD remaining marginally positive. This suggests downside momentum is easing rather than reversing decisively.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 1.3667. Below that, a break beneath the short‑term rising trendline could expose 1.3570 – the range floor of a recent consolidation – and further below the March 9 swing low at 1.3525, where sellers may become more cautious.

On the upside, initial resistance lies at the 50‑day SMA near 1.3724, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3781. A sustained break above this zone could open the way toward a confluence area near 1.3825, where the 20‑ and 200‑day SMAs align, ahead of the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3850.

Overall, USDCAD is extending a sharp pullback from three‑month highs to three‑week lows, having slipped below all three key plotted SMAs. However, if the rising trendline manages to halt the decline, potential for a near‑term rebound may emerge.

Key takeaways

• Gold positioning for breakout: After rebounding ~18% from March lows, gold is consolidating below the $4,900 resistance (near the 50-day MA), with technicals suggesting a potential bullish breakout if this level is cleared.
• Macro tailwinds improving: Rising odds of Fed rate cuts, a weakening US dollar, and declining US real yields are reducing opportunity costs and creating a supportive backdrop for gold prices.
• Catch-up trade vs equities: Gold has lagged equities despite similar macro drivers, but intermarket dynamics point to a potential bullish catch-up move, towards $4,980/5,039 and $5,125/5,166 with key short-term support at $4,700/4,645.

Gold (XAU/USD) has held steady on Friday, 17 April 2026, during the Asian session with a minuscule intraday gain of 0.2% to trade at $4,800 at this time of writing.

The precious yellow metal was on track for a fourth straight weekly gain, as hopes for a US-Iran peace deal eased fears of stagflation risk and higher longer-term interest rates.

Based on the pre-US-Iran war baseline set on 27 February 2026, gold has plummeted by 22% (high to low) to print an intraday low of $4,099 on 23 March 2026.

Thereafter, it rebounded by 18% to hit an intraday high of $4,871 on Wednesday, 15 April 2026, just below its 50-day moving average, which is acting as an intermediate resistance at around $4,900.

So far, spot gold based on prices quoted by the London Bullion Market Association has underperformed the other global cross-asset classes since the start of the war, where it still recorded a loss of 8% as of Thursday, 16 April 2026, versus positive gains seen in global equities where the MSCI All Country World Index rebounded back to almost the unchanged level (+0.69%), led by the US mega-cap technology centric, Nasdaq 100 that reversed to a gain of 5.50% (see Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: Global cross-assets performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 16 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro).

The primary reason for gold to lag equities at this juncture (same movement but different pace) is due to its non-income-bearing feature, as gold does not yield dividends and earnings, but competes with the US dollar and fixed income assets such as bonds.

Intermarket analysis suggests that gold is likely to play a bullish catch-up at this juncture to narrow equities’ outperformance gap.

A less hawkish Fed may put a halt to the US dollar's strength

Fig. 2: CME FedWatch tool aggregated FOMC meeting probabilities as of 17 Apr 2026 (Source: CME FedWatch tool).

During the onset of the US-Iran war, the US Dollar Index staged a rally of 3% to hit an 11-month high of 100.64 on 31 March 2026 as Fed funds interest rate cut bets evaporated to a chance of zero in 2026 due to stagflation fear from a potential prolonged global oil supply shock via the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

As ceasefire chances have increased in the past five trading sessions, the CME FedWatch tool, as of 17 April 2026, has started to show an increased odds of a 25 basis points cut (from 0% to 33%), potentially reducing the Fed funds rate to 3.25%-3.50% on the 9 December 2026 FOMC meeting (see Fig. 2).

An implied less hawkish Fed momentary policy priced by the Fed funds futures market has led to a 2.8% drop in the US Dollar Index to 98.20, and it has traded below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages at the time of writing.

A further weakening of the US dollar is likely to boost another round of a positive feedback loop for gold.

Longer-term US Treasury real yield staged a major bearish reaction below 2.2%

Fig. 3: 10-year US Treasury real yield medium-term trend as of 17 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView).

Gold has a significant indirect correlation with the longer-term US Treasury yields, as the precious yellow metal is a non-interest income-bearing asset.

Hence, a higher 10-year US Treasury real yield (nominal yield minus inflationary expectations from break-even rate) will tend to imply a higher opportunity cost for owning and holding gold, in turn, lesser demand that may drive down prices of gold. Vice versa, gold will tend to benefit from a lower 10-year US Treasury real yield.

The 10-year US Treasury real yield has hit a 9-month high of 2.17% on 27 March 2026, just a whisker below its long-term pivotal resistance of 2.20% before it reversed down and broke a key ascending trendline support from the 2 March 2026 low that previously led to a sell-off in gold (see Fig. 3).

Right now, a break below its recent 15 April 2026 low of 1.85% (also the 200-day moving average) is likely to see further weakness in the 10-year US Treasury real yield to retest its medium-term range support at 1.66%, in turn, benefiting gold.

Let us now dissect the short-term outlook (1 to 3 days) of gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspective.

Gold (XAU/USD) – Poised for a bullish breakout above $4,900

Fig. 4: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 17 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView).

The price actions of gold (XAU/USD) have been traded above its 20-day moving average since a retest of it on Monday, 13 April 2026 (after the failure of the first round of US-Iran peace talks).

Watch the $4,700/4,645 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above $4,900 sees the start of another potential bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at $4,980/5,039 and $5,125/5,166 in the first step (see Fig. 4).

However, a break and an hourly close below $4,645 invalidates the bullish tone for a slide towards the next intermediate support at $4,524/4,486 (also 50% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 23 March 2026 low to 15 April 2026 high).

Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on gold (XAU/USD)

• Price actions of gold (XAU/USD) have been oscillating within a minor ascending channel since the 23 March 2026 low.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to stage a rebound at a horizontal support of 39.
• Elliot Wave Theory suggests the recent rally from the 27 March 2026 low of $4,351 is likely considered as a minor bullish impulsive wave three structure with its potential terminal zone at $4,980/5,166 (1.382 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions).

• The FTSE 100 maintains a firm bullish posture, holding comfortably above the 10000 psychological level
• The index is currently consolidating sideways between 10550 and 10700 as it searches for its next catalyst.
• The broader "buy-the-dip" structural breakout remains the primary driver, with bulls staying in control as long as the index holds above 10500.

The FTSE 100 continues to exhibit resilient price action as we close out the trading week. Despite a brief period of volatility in March, the index has firmly reclaimed its bullish posture, underpinned by a shift that suggests the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Daily Chart: Structural Strength and Moving Average Support

On the daily timeframe, the FTSE 100 is currently consolidating just below its recent swing highs. The most notable technical development is the index's ability to remain comfortably above the 10000 psychological level, which previously served as the "12 Nov Swing High."

Key takeaways from the daily view:

• The SMA Cluster: The index is trading well above its 100-day MA (blue) at 10198 and the 200-day MA (yellow) at 9761. The widening gap between price and these long-term averages highlights the strength of the current trend.
• Ascending Support: A clear ascending trendline (black) continues to guide price action higher, currently providing a dynamic floor near the 10400 zone.
• RSI Momentum: The Daily RSI is sitting at 58.3, comfortably away from overbought territory. This suggests there is significant "white space" for the index to rally toward the 10786 resistance level before momentum exhaustion becomes a primary concern.

FTSE 100 Daily Chart, April 17, 2026

Source: TradingView

H4 Chart: Consolidation Following the Recovery

The H4 chart provides a clearer picture of the recovery following the late-March dip. After testing liquidity below 10000, the index surged back, reclaiming the 10269 and 10500 handles.

We are currently seeing a period of sideways consolidation between 10550 and 10,700. The H4 RSI is currently neutral at 51.0, reflecting a market that is searching for its next catalyst. The 100-period MA (blue) on the H4 is currently trending at 10352, acting as a secondary line of defense should we see an intraday pullback.

FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, April 17, 2026

Source: TradingView

H1 Chart: Session Scenarios & Key Levels

The H1 chart shows the index currently hovering around the 10596 mark, sandwiched between the 50-period (dark blue) and 100-period (yellow) moving averages on this timeframe.

The Bullish Scenario

For the bulls to reassert dominance in the upcoming session, we need to see a sustained hold above the intraday pivot at 10600. A clean break above the recent local high of 10660 would open the door for a retest of the major resistance ceiling at 10786. Traders should watch for the RSI to climb back above 60 to confirm that buying momentum is returning.

The Bearish Scenario

If the index fails to hold the 10580 support level (near the current 100-MA), we could see a slide toward the 10552 handle. A break below this zone would suggest a deeper corrective move is underway, potentially targeting the H4 support at 10500. The appearance of a "PIVOT" high on the RSI suggests that the immediate upside might be capped in the very short term.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 10660, 10700, 10786 (Major)
• Support: 10580, 10552, 10500

FTSE 100 One-Hour Chart, April 17, 2026

Source: TradingView

The FTSE 100 remains in a "buy-the-dip" regime. While intraday consolidation is the current theme, the broader structural breakout on the daily chart remains the primary driver. As long as the index holds above 10500 on a closing basis, bulls remain in control.

The Australian dollar is undergoing a corrective decline after reaching recent highs, with the current move driven by market reaction to newly released macroeconomic data. Earlier gains in AUD were supported by improving global risk sentiment and steady demand for commodity-linked currencies. However, weaker labour market figures have prompted a reassessment of expectations and triggered profit-taking.

Employment data published yesterday pointed to a slowdown in growth, raising concerns about the durability of the economic recovery. Although full-time employment increased, overall job growth came in below forecasts, while the unemployment rate showed little change. Together, these factors weighed on the Australian dollar and led to a reassessment of its short-term outlook following the prior rally.

Toward the end of the week, market participants will focus on upcoming macroeconomic releases, including data on economic activity, central bank commentary, and commodity market statistics. These factors may reshape expectations and influence the direction of commodity currencies.

AUD/USD

After reaching a yearly high near 0.7180, AUD/USD has pulled back, forming a “Bearish Harami” reversal pattern. A bearish close in the current session could increase the likelihood of a deeper correction towards 0.7100–0.7120.

At the same time, a renewed break above the recent high would signal continued bullish momentum and a return of buyers to the market.

Key events for AUD/USD:

• today at 13:00 (GMT+3): International Monetary Fund meetings;
• today at 18:30 (GMT+3): speech by FOMC member Mary Daly;
• today at 22:30 (GMT+3): CFTC net speculative positions on AUD.

AUD/CAD

AUD/CAD is also moving lower, reflecting both weakness in the Australian dollar and relative resilience of the Canadian currency. Commodity market dynamics remain an additional driver, with energy prices and global demand expectations continuing to play a key role.

Technical analysis suggests the potential for a correction towards 0.9730–0.9760, as a “Dark Cloud Cover” reversal pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. A retest of recent highs will help assess the strength of demand and the likelihood of a renewed uptrend.

Key events for AUD/CAD:

• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian housing starts;
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): foreign investment in Canadian securities;
• today at 20:00 (GMT+3): Baker Hughes rig count.

The current pullback in the Australian dollar follows weaker labour market data after a period of steady gains. If downward pressure persists, the correction may deepen. However, stabilisation in the external environment and supportive incoming data could allow the broader upward trend to resume.

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USD/JPY dynamics continue to be driven by the persistent yield gap between US and Japanese government bonds. With the Federal Reserve maintaining a relatively hawkish stance and keeping rates elevated as of April 2026, the Bank of Japan remains extremely cautious in its path towards policy normalisation. This divergence in monetary policy continues to underpin demand for the US dollar.

The dollar is also supported by its safe-haven appeal amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. However, upside momentum is being restrained by the proximity of the key 160.00 level. Historical precedent suggests a heightened risk of currency intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance around this threshold. Investors are now focused on the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting on 28 April, which could reshape market expectations for the pair’s next move.

Technical Overview

Since April 2025, the pair has been developing a steady uptrend within a well-defined parallel channel. Price action remains highly responsive, consistently respecting the channel structure and reinforcing the strength of the broader trend. Each test of the lower boundary over the past year has triggered renewed buying interest.

Currently, the pair is consolidating just below the critical 160.00 level, while holding above the upper boundary of the horizontal volume zone near 158.500. The Point of Control (POC) is concentrated around 156.00, acting as the midpoint of the current structure and a key reference level in the event of a corrective move.

The slowdown near current levels may reflect position-building, as market participants appear reluctant to force a breakout above 160.00 without a strong fundamental catalyst. The RSI with Moving Averages shows a reading of 51, indicating neutral conditions and no signs of extreme overbought territory despite proximity to yearly highs. Both moving averages of the oscillator are also positioned in neutral territory, reinforcing the current market balance.

Summary

USD/JPY remains in sharp focus. The wide interest rate differential and geopolitical backdrop continue to support the dollar, but the approach to the psychological 160.00 level, combined with intervention risks, is encouraging a more cautious stance among buyers.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 215.02; (P) 215.40; (R1) 215.67; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral for consolidations below 215.89 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained by 213.29 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 215.89 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 204.47) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 187.18; (P) 187.43; (R1) 187.77; More...

EUR/JPY's up trend resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rise should be seen to 161.8% projection of 180.78 to 184.75 from 182.56 at 188.98 next. Nevertheless, break of 187.07 support should indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback to 55 4H EMA (now at 186.38).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) in in progress and should be ready to resume. Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 175.41 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8695; (P) 0.8705; (R1) 0.8720; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment, as consolidations continue below 0.8740. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8675 support holds. Break of 0.8740 will resume the rebound from 0.8610 to 0.8788 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8675 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8610 low instead.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.