Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6411; (P) 1.6447; (R1) 1.6487; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside as fall from 1.6842 is in progress for retesting 1.6125 low. Firm break there will resume whole down trend from 1.8554 to 1.5913 fibonacci level next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6667 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7163) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9217; (P) 0.9231; (R1) 0.9247; More....

Sideway trading continues in EUR/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected with 0.9155 support intact. Firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rebound from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9281) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1758; (P) 1.1792; (R1) 1.1817; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 1.1823 temporary top. Further rise is expected as long as 1.1662 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824 will extend the rally from 1.1408 to retest 1.2081 high.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1513). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.48; (P) 158.90; (R1) 159.56; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) holds. On the upside break of 160.45 will target a retest on 161.94 high. However, firm break of 157.31/49 will bring deeper fall back to 61.8% retracement at 155.38 next.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 155.24) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3498; (P) 1.3547; (R1) 1.3576; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 1.3594 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3379 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596 will extend the rise from 1.3158 to retest 1.3867 high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7808; (P) 0.7827; (R1) 0.7857; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen above 0.7789 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 0.7933 resistance holds. Below 0.7789 will resume the fall from 0.8041 to 61.8% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7770. Decisive break there will target a retest on 0.7603 low.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8071) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3685; (P) 1.3715; (R1) 1.3733; More...

USD/CAD's fall from 1.3965 continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.3965 at 1.3665. Decisive break there will extend the decline from 1.3965 to retest 1.3480 low. On the upside, above 1.3736 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

Markets

Brent crude prices started creeping back up yesterday as the clock ticks down to next week’s Tuesday end to the current cease-fire between the US and Iran. Both parties dig their heels in the sand with back-channel diplomacy hoping for another twee week truce extension. In the meantime, the US keeps stepping up its economic warfare in Hormuz (naval blockade and not extending waivers on purchases of Iranian & Russian oil) aiming to make Iran almost unconditionally surrender to US demands. Bloomberg reported that people close to EU and Arab leaders feared that reaching a deal might take about six months. Immediately opening the Strait of Hormuz is key to restore energy flows and stop the developing global food crisis. The International Energy Agency also warned that Europe has maybe six weeks of jet fuel left. If supplies remain blocked, flight cancellations will be coming. IEA chief Birol added that we must start preparing for significantly higher energy prices if Hormuz is not reopened. More emergency oil reserve releases are under consideration. He also thinks that it will take approximately two years to reach pre-war production levels again. Brent crude moved from $94.5/b to almost $100 yesterday. They retreated to close near $98. US President Trump announced a 10-day cease-fire deal between Israel en Lebanon, but the value is low given that Hezbollah wasn’t involved. He keeps trying to talk up the market, saying that the war in Iran should be ending pretty soon. On Wednesday he suggested that the next two days were going to be amazing. Yesterday he changed that to “let’s see what happens over the next week or so” but still “going to see some incredible results”. At the moment it remains unclear whether US and Iranian delegations will meet again over the weekend. Given the empty eco calendar, the headline roulette will keep spinning and determine market action. From a risk point of view, we believe that positioning became overly bullish with risks of disappointment if the current stalemate drags on. Especially if Brent crude tips back above the $100 risk on/risk off switch. Approaching that barrier yesterday resulted in some fatigue on stock markets (ending between small losses and small gains) and FX market (1.18 barrier holding).

News & Views

The incoming Tisza administration in Hungary has articulated an economic program centered on the restoration of the rule of law and the modernization of the domestic business environment, in-house KBC analysis finds. A central pillar of this strategy is the immediate unblocking of approximately €18bn in frozen EU funds, roughly 10% of annual GDP. Tisza intends to achieve this by joining the European Public Prosecutor's Office and conducting a rigorous audit of previous public procurement practices to reclaim siphoned state funds. Fiscal policy represents a shift toward progressivity and the support of SMEs. Proposed measures include lowering the personal income tax rate on minimum wage earners from 15% to 9%, while simultaneously introducing a 1% asset tax on individuals with net wealth exceeding HUF 1 bln. This redistributive approach is designed to increase household disposable income and domestic demand, which has been stagnant or contracting in recent years. Beyond these measures, Tisza's manifesto outlined ambitions to adopt the euro by 2030, reduce the budget deficit to below 3% of GDP and transition away from Russian energy dependence by 2035. However, to achieve this, some degree of fiscal consolidation would be necessary, which could act as a drag on domestic demand in the short term. The proposed tax cuts might be difficult to implement given the challenging state of public finances, with the fiscal deficit at approximately 4.8–5% of GDP. The country's heavy reliance on energy imports — four-fifths of its oil and two-thirds of its gas — adds further complexity, as dismantling Orbán-era price controls and energy subsidies risks weakening growth, while maintaining them would strain the budget.

The Financial Times, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Germany will slash its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 1%. The meagre expansion would mean a fourth consecutive year of near-stagnation in the euro area’s largest economy, dashing hopes of a public spending lead recovery. The government’s stimulus package is indeed the main impulse to this year’s limited growth, a government source told FT, with exports, domestic consumption and private investments all stagnating. The growth downgrade is the result of the Iran war, which lead to an energy price spike weighing on the country’s vast chemical and pharma industry. It comes on top of structural issues including a shrinking workforce, limited productivity growth and excessive regulation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7144; (P) 0.7171; (R1) 0.7190; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen below 0.7197 temporary top first. Further rally is expected as long as 0.7000 support holds. Above 0.7917 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.7599.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

The market narrative is shifting from chasing the risk rally to waiting for confirmation. After a sustained push higher driven by optimism around US-Iran negotiations, investors are becoming more cautious ahead of a critical weekend. The rally remains intact, but the willingness to extend positions without new information is fading.

US equities pushed to fresh record highs overnight, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ extending gains overnight. But the lack of follow-through elsewhere suggests that conviction is fading temporarily. This hesitation is most visible in Asia. Japan’s Nikkei has pulled back from its own record highs, trimming gains as traders lock in profits ahead of the weekend. Oil markets are sending a similar signal. Prices are holding in a tight range just below the $100 mark.

That caution is justified given evolving expectations for the US-Iran negotiations. Reports indicate that both the US and Iran are scaling back ambitions from a comprehensive agreement toward a more achievable interim framework. The focus is shifting toward a temporary memorandum that would prevent renewed conflict rather than deliver a full resolution. Back-channel diplomacy appears to be playing a key role. Lower-level discussions have reportedly made progress in narrowing differences, raising the possibility of an agreement in principle. However, significant technical details are likely to be deferred.

US President Donald Trump has maintained an upbeat tone, saying the US is “very close to making a deal with Iran” and even hinting he could travel to Islamabad for a signing. Such rhetoric is supporting underlying optimism, but markets are turning cautious about taking it at face value without concrete outcomes.

At the same time, geopolitical efforts are expanding beyond the core US-Iran channel. The UK and France are set to chair a meeting of around 40 countries to coordinate efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open once hostilities ease. The proposed mission could involve intelligence sharing, mine-clearing operations, and military escorts to secure shipping lanes. Even if tensions ease, the need for a transitional security framework suggests that normalization will not be immediate.

In the currency markets, Yen has overtaken Dollar's place as the worst performer of the week so far, while Sterling is the third. Aussie continues to lead at the top, followed by Loonie, and then Kiwi. Euro and Swiss Franc are positioning in the middle.

In Asia, Nikkei fell -1.13%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.15%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.06%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.27%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.015 to 2.421. Overnight, DOW rose 0.24%. S&P 500 rose 0.26%. NASDAQ rose 0.36%. 10-year yield rose 0.027 to 4.309.

NASDAQ Hits Record High as AI Trade Revives, Eyes 26k+ if Oil Normalizes to $80

NASDAQ has surged to record highs as the AI trade revives The next move toward 26k depends on whether oil prices fall back toward $80 and ease inflation pressure. Read more.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7144; (P) 0.7171; (R1) 0.7190; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen below 0.7197 temporary top first. Further rally is expected as long as 0.7000 support holds. Above 0.7917 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.7599.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.