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EURUSD has been trading sideways over the last three days within the 20 and 40 simple moving averages in the daily timeframe. The price lost its strong momentum for a bearish correction below a 5-month high of 1.2554 reached last week. However, the short-term technical indicators seem to be in confusion.

From the technical point of view, the MACD oscillator is moving lower in the positive territory below its trigger line, signaling further downside potential moves. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is lacking positive momentum, remaining flat near the 50 level.

Should prices reverse lower and drop below the 40-day SMA immediate support could come at 1.2200 strong psychological level. Below that, the 1.2160 barrier is another major support. A penetration of the latter level could take the world’s most traded currency pair towards its ascending trend line, which overlaps with the 1.2080 level and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the up-leg from 1.0560 to 1.2540.

To the upside, the pair could meet the 20-day SMA before it reaches a significant resistance area within 1.2540 and 1.2570 obstacles, taken from the high in December 2014. A rally above those levels could drive the price further up, challenging the 1.2880 resistance level in the medium-term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.93; (P) 131.38; (R1) 131.84; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside. Current development indicate medium term topping at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 133.05 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.75; (P) 149.13; (R1) 149.63; More...

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up on loss of medium term momentum as seen in weekly MACD. Also, firm break of 146.96 will indicate rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 154.60) and add to that case of reversal. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 and then 61.8% retracement at 135.43. Meanwhile, break of 156.59 will extend the rise from 122.36 to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

USD index as we know is negatively correlated to the EURUSD, so as we think that price may unfold a flat pattern on EURUSD, then we also have to be prepared for a possible flat on the USD Index. Here we see a completed wave 3 at the 88.45 level, from where a three-wave rally unfolded as blue wave a. Afterwards, a drop followed, labelled as blue wave b and now a new bounce can be underway as wave c of 4. If price trades as expected, then we will see a retest of the 90.70 level, before final wave 5 of 5) takes over.

USD Index, 4H

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8778; (P) 0.8807; (R1) 0.8829; More...

EUR/GBP weakens today but after all it's still bounded in range of 0.8686/8928. Intraday bias remains neutral. Also, outlook stays mildly bearish with 0.8928 resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 0.8686 will resume whole decline from 0.9305. As 61.8% retracement of 0.8312 to 0.9305 should then be taken out too, deeper decline would be seen to retest 0.8303/8312 support zone. Nonetheless, on the upside, break of 0.8928 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 0.9304 resistance.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

XAUUSD (1336.81): Gold prices edged lower last week after price failed to break out from the resistance level near 1357. Overall, gold prices have formed a rising wedge pattern that suggests an imminent downside breakout. Friday's price action saw gold prices trading close to the lower trend line. A breakout from this will confirm the downside in gold. The first target comes in at 1303 and a break down below this level could extend gold prices to fall to 1282 - 1274 level. This would also mark a retest of the breakout from the trend line.

GBPUSD (1.4000): The British pound managed to close on a bullish note on Friday marking a two day gain. However with prices staying put near the highs above 1.3902, we expect to see some more consolidation taking place. To the downside, a break down below 1.3902 could potentially signal a move towards 1.353 level of support which could be tested once again. The gains to the upside will be limited with the next major resistance level at 1.4127 likely to cap the gains. With GBPUSD trading within the triangle pattern the breakout from this pattern will signal further direction in the currency pair.

EURUSD (1.2311): The EURUSD was seen posting declines last week. Despite the attempts to close on a bullish note last Thursday, price action settled lower on the day. Friday's session closed within Thursday's range forming an inside bar as a result. We expect that the breakout will be to the downside given the retest of resistance level near 1.2363 - 1.2330 on the 4-hour chart. Unless EURUSD posts a strong breakout to the upside, we expect to see the declines continuing lower in the medium term. EURUSD remains on track to target the lows of 1.2212 from 9 February and a break down below this low will extend the declines to 1.2090.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5645; (P) 1.5702; (R1) 1.5730; More....

EUR/AUD remains bounded in consolidation from 1.5816 and intraday bias stays neutral. Also near term outlook stays cautiously bullish as long as 1.5606 support holds. Break of 1.5816 should now confirm resumption of medium term rise from 1.3264. In that case, EUR/AUD should target 1.6587 key long term resistance. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.5606 will argue that a short term top is formed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.5506) and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Sustained break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1488; (P) 1.1506; (R1) 1.1521; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1445 is extending. Also, outlook remains bearish with 1.1639 resistance intact and deeper decline is expected. Break of 1.1445 will resume the corrective fall from 1.1832 and target 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372.) At this point, we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.