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EUR/USD Sideways Price Action

Swissquote Bank SA

EUR/USD is trading mixed around 1.24. The pair lies in a bullish short-term momentum. Hourly support is given at 1.2223 (23/01/2018 low). The technical structure suggests further short-term upside moves.

In the longer term, the momentum is turning largely positive. We favor a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2856 (15/10/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.1554 (08/11/2017 low).

Forex Technical Analysis: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD


EUR/USD

Current level - 1.2396

The intraday bias is negative, for a slide towards 1.2330 major static support and the latter is expected to initiate the next leg upwards, to 1.2800 area.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.2450 1.2500 1.2367 1.2330
1.2540 1.2870 1.2330 1.2220

USD/JPY

Current level - 108.89

Despite the recent low at 108.25, my outlook is positive, for a break through 109.10 area, towards 109.75 zone.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
109.15 110.20 108.25 108.50
110.20 112.00 108.25 107.30

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.4093

The intraday bias is bearish, for a tight test of 1.4050 support zone. Initial resistance lies at 1.4205.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.4205 1.4340 1.4050 1.3940
1.4340 1.4730 1.4050 1.3730

EUR/AUD 4H Chart: Bearish Movement

After approaching the upper trend-line of a dominant channel down pattern, EUR/AUD currency exchange rate began to decline.

After reaching the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level. The common European currency is slowly moving downwards to test the dominant channel down-trend line up pattern. This retracement can be measured with the high of 1.5772 and the low of 1.5183.

Regarding the short term, the pair is set to approach the lower trend-line of the dominant channel and is likely to be stopped by the weekly PP at 1.5140. Afterwards a temporary retracement upwards should occur.

GBP/JPY 4H Chart: Full Review

A full review was made for the GBP/JPY pair, due to previously drawn pattern being broken. The pair was smoothly moving north until it was stopped by the combination of the monthly and weekly PPs near the 155.78 mark.

A new junior channel has been mapped, and by the end of Friday’s trading session, a breakout has occurred to the south.

Meanwhile, in regards to the future movement, the bear is likely to grow stronger until it is stopped by the combination of the weekly PP and the 200—hour SMA at 151.81 mark. If and when it happens, there might be a retracement upwards.

EUR/USD Analysis: Breaches Strong Support Early In Session

Despite trying to accelerate against the US Dollar early on Friday, the common European currency failed to overcome the psychological 1.25 mark. The subsequent reversal was followed by a breach of the 55-hour SMA and the monthly R3 which left the rate between this resistance and the 100-hour moving average.

Technical indicators are generally neutral, thus pointing to a possible period of consolidation. Given that the Euro managed to breach the 55-hour SMA, it is likely that traders see the strengthening of the bearish sentiment within this session and even beyond.

The dashed line on the chart represents a three-week trend-line. A breakout of this line and the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP circa 1.2380 should confirm the aforementioned scenario.

GBP/USD Analysis: Points To Soon Secline

Similarly to other major currencies, the Pound retrieved from its recent highs against the US Dollar and edged lower on Friday. It breached the 55-hour SMA and was testing the longer-term moving average and the weekly PP circa 1.4130 on Monday morning. This level coincides with the bottom boundary of a three-week ascending triangle which has constrained the pair's recent period of appreciation.

Meanwhile, this trading session started with low volatility, as bears were reluctant to breach the nearest support. This area, however, is expected to surrender, thus allowing the Pound to approach the 200-hour SMA located near the 1.40 mark.

The pair is likely to remain in the 1.4050/1.4100 range by Tuesday morning.

USD/JPY Analysis: Reverses From Four-Month Low

After rebounding from the lower boundary of a breached four-month channel down early on Friday, the US Dollar was guided by the 55-hour SMA until a strong hourly plunge around 1400GMT pushed the rate towards the bottom boundary of a six-week channel.

This fall was caused by BOJ Governor Kuroda's comments in Davos where he claimed that Japan was getting close to its 2% inflation target, thus putting upward pressure on the Yen. A test of the aforementioned channel was followed by a rebound back to the 55-hour SMA within the Asian session.

Technical indicators remain bearish. A possible upside target today could be the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP circa 109.50, while the nearest support is the distant weekly S1 at 107.53.

XAU/USD Analysis: Stranded In Narrow Range

Gold remained stable against the Greenback on Friday, as the notable resistance of the 55-hour moving average and the monthly R2 limited the pair's appreciation above the 1,355.00 mark. Thus, its subsequent movement was guided towards the 100-hour SMA located near 1,355.00. The yellow metal tested this area, likewise reinforced by the weekly PP and the bottom boundary of a short-term channel, early in this session.

Considering the lack of noteworthy fundamentals today, the rate could remain stranded in the narrow 1,355.00/1,355.00 range for several hours until one of the aforementioned barriers is breached. It is more likely that bears prevail, thus allowing Gold to form a slight correction southwards from its 2017 high of 1,365.00.

GBP/USD: UK Gross Domestic Product

The Sterling jumped against the Dollar, after the preliminary Britain's GDP report showed that the country's economy accelerated growth pace more than anticipated by the end of 2017. The GDP/USD exchange rate picked up 19 base points or 0.14%, but fell back initially to continue gradual decline.

The UK economic growth strengthened in the December quarter of 2017, with the report showing that Brexit continued to weigh on the economy, but not as dramatically as feared. Britain's GDP grew 1.8% year-over-year in the Q4, at the weakest pace since 2012, compared with 1.9% expansion in the year of 2016. The data added to expectation for the BoE to raise rates later in May, but not in February.

EUR/USD: US Advance Gross Domestic Product

The EUR/USD currency pair revealed a regular 9 base points gain, despite the report showing an unexpected slowdown in the US economy. The pair kept pulling away from the 1.2500 high, targeting 1.2400 area.

The US economy revealed weaker-than-anticipated expansion pace in Q4, as solid consumer spending resulted in an increase in imports. The Commerce Department stated that the US gross domestic product rose at a 2.6% yearly rate in the December quarter, compared with 3.2% in the Q3, being restrained by an expanding trade deficit and moderate inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, durable goods orders rose 2.8% in December, with the US manufacturers benefiting from a solid global growth and a weaker currency, supporting the country's exports.