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Aussie Trading On A Weaker Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD slightly declined against the USD and closed at 0.8002 on Friday.
LME Copper prices rose 0.5% or $32.0/MT to $7079.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 1.4% or $31.0/MT to $2256.0/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7995, with the AUD trading 0.09% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7970, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7944. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.8030, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8064.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

Euro-Zone’s Current Account Surplus Increased In November
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.1% against the USD and closed at 1.2232 on Friday.
In economic news, the Euro-zone's seasonally adjusted current account surplus widened to €32.5 billion in November, after dropping for two straight months and compared to a revised surplus of €30.3 billion in the previous month.
Separately, Germany's producer price index (PPI) rose 2.3% on an annual basis in December, at par with market expectations. In the prior month, the PPI had climbed 2.5%.
The greenback advanced against most of its major counterparts on Friday, as investors shrugged off worries over a possible US government shutdown.
Macroeconomic data released in the US indicated that the flash Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index unexpectedly dropped to a level of 94.4 in January, dipping to its lowest level since July 2017, as consumers turned less optimistic about the current economic conditions. The index had registered a level of 95.9 in the previous month, while markets had expected for a rise to a level of 97.0.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2228, with the EUR trading a tad lower against the USD from Friday's close.
Meanwhile, the US government could not avert a shutdown, after members of the Senate failed to reach an agreement to fund government operations before the Friday's deadline.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2200, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2171. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2276, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2323.
Amid a lack of macroeconomic releases in the Euro-zone today, investors would focus on the US Chicago Fed national activity index for December, scheduled to release later in the day.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average

Britain’s Retail Sales Plunged To An 18-Month Low Level In December
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.19% against the USD and closed at 1.3870 on Friday, after data showed that UK's retail sales came in worse-than-expected in December.
Britain's retail sales slid 1.5% on a monthly basis in December, declining by the most since the Brexit vote in 2016 and offering further evidence that rising price pressures and stubbornly weak wage growth would continue to erode the nation's consumer spending. Retail sales had registered a revised gain of 1.0% in the prior month, while markets were anticipating for a fall of 1.0%.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.387, with the GBP trading flat against the USD from Friday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3824, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3779. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.393, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3991.
In absence of any major macroeconomic releases in the UK today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Japanese Yen Trading On A Weaker Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.39% against the JPY and closed at 110.60 on Friday.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 110.79, with the USD trading 0.17% higher against the JPY from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 110.51, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.23. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.05, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.31.
Going forward, investors would be paying close attention to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision, due in the early hours of tomorrow.
The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Swiss Franc Extends Its Losses In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.34% against the CHF and closed at 0.9620 on Friday.
On the macro front, Switzerland’s producer and import price index rose 0.2% MoM in December, after recording a gain of 0.6% in the prior month.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9626, with the USD trading 0.06% higher against the CHF from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9563, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9501. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9661, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9697.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Canada’s Manufacturing Sales Surged By The Most In Over 2 Years In November
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.6% against the CAD and closed at 1.2483 on Friday.
On the economic front, Canada's manufacturing shipments rebounded 3.4% on a monthly basis in November, posting its biggest increase in more than 2 years and topping market consensus for an advance of 2.0%. In the prior month, manufacturing shipments had dropped by a revised 0.6%.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2484, with the USD trading a tad higher against the CAD from Friday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2420, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2357. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2527, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2571.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1729; (P) 1.1752; (R1) 1.1792; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral first. As 1.1683 support holds, near term outlook stays bullish for further rally. Again, considering relatively weak upside momentum, in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance below 1.2 handle to bring medium term reversal. Break of 1.1683 support will be a early sign of reversal and turn focus to 1.1602 support.
In the bigger picture, while a medium term top could be around the corner, there is no change in the larger outlook. That is, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress and would extend. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'll hold on to this bullish view and expect further rise to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000 and above. Though, we'll reassess the outlook if 1.1198 is firmly taken out.


EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8796; (P) 0.8820; (R1) 0.8839; More...
As noted before, rebound from 0.8688 could have completed 0.8928 already. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.8688 first. Firm break there would resume whole fall from 0.9305 to retest 0.8303/12 key support zone. And, this will now be the favored as long as 0.8928 resistance holds, even in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.


EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5263; (P) 1.5294; (R1) 1.5318; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. . On the upside, break of 1.5446 resistance will revive the case that correction from 1.5770 has completed at 1.5153. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.5770 first. However, break of 1.5153 will resume the fall from 1.5770 to 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950).
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.5770 so far suggests that it's corrective in nature. That is, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.


GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.91; (P) 153.65; (R1) 154.21; More...
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 154.56 temporary top. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 150.18 support holds. Above 154.56 will extend the medium term up trend to 61.8% projection of 139.29 to 152.82 from 146.96 at 155.32. Break will target 100% projection at 160.49
In the bigger picture, as long as 146.96 key support holds, medium term outlook remains bullish. Rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78. However, break of 146.96 support will indicate trend reversal. And there would be prospect of retesting 122.36 in that case.


