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The US Dollar held strong against the Yen on Wednesday, thus ending the previous session with an 85-pip gain. The pair was stranded between the 55– and 100-hour SMAs for most of the day. However, a strong hourly surge later in the evening allowed to dash through the latter and test a resistance cluster formed by the monthly S1 and the 200-hour SMA near 111.50. It is likely that bulls are reluctant to push past this area during the following session. Meanwhile, the southern side is guarded by the shorter-term moving averages circa 110.85 that are expected to hold firm, at least during the first part of the day. Thus, the Greenback might enter a brief period of consolidation which could be disrupted by US fundamentals released mid-session. In case of a strong fall, the daily low should be 110.30.

The yellow metal is starting to weaken gradually against the US Dollar. Even though the middle of Wednesday’s trading session passed with no significant price changes, a strong hourly plunge of 0.78% allowed Gold to breach the 55– and 100-hour SMAs; the weekly PP and the monthly R1 surrendered several hours later. By Thursday morning, the rate was testing the 200-hour SMA. Given that the total daily losses yesterday was 0.9%, it is likely that bulls try to re-gain some lost positions in this session—a scenario that is likewise supported by north-tended technical indicators. The highest point for the following session could be the combined resistance of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the bottom boundary of the breached channel circa 1,355.00.

The Aussie fell against the Grenback on the weaker-than-anticipated report on the Australian labour market report. The AUD/USD exchange rate declined 0.22% or 17 base points to the 0.7953 mark, but managed to return into the 0.7970 area.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics stated that the country’s jobless rate was registered at a seasonally adjusted 5.5% in December, which was above expectations for November’s unchanged 5.4%. The report additionally showed that the Australia’s economy added 34.7K positions in the reported month, beating forecasts for a 15.1K gain. More Australians were looking for work, while employees are actively hiring, the reason why the consumer confidence reached the four-year high.

The Canadian Dollar revelaed a 1.26% volatility against the US Dollar, following the BoC monetary policy decision. Though, the USD/CAD currency pair fell just 0.02%, remaining in the bearish trend.

The Bank of Canada implemented an interest rate hike on Wednesday, in line with expectations, as employment growth and solid inflation outweighed NAFTA uncertainties, though the Central Bank’s Chief admitted that the change was not an easy decision. The rate increase acknowledges that recent economic data was stronger that the BoC anticipated, inflation was nearing 2% goal, and the economy was operating at its full potential without output gap. The Bank also stated that trade uncertainty is likely to cut investment by 2% by the 2019 end.

The Aussie dollar regained traction and bounced from session low at 0.7941, regaining levels near cracked 0.8000 barrier, following Wednesday’s strong rejection at 0.8022 on first attempt above 0.8000 pivot.

Better than expected Australian jobs data (34.7K new jobs created in Dec vs 9K forecasted) and strong China’s data (Q4 GDP 6.8% vs 6.7% f/c and Dec IP 6.2% vs 6.0% f/c) inflated the Aussie for renewed attempts above 0.8000 and continuation of steep uptrend.

Bullish techs continue to support, however, the pair may show further signs of hesitation as overbought daily studies warn of corrective easing.

Lows of past three days at 0.7940 zone form initial support, followed by rising 10SMA at 0.7904, which should ideally contain and reduce risk of deeper pullback.

Res: 0.8000, 0.8022, 0.8065, 0.8102
Sup: 0.7940, 0.7925, 0.7904, 0.7880

Bitcoin back above 11K
The bitcoin price is way oversold when you look at it from a technical perspective

Is Bitcoin still burning or maybe there is no more blood left to bleed? It is a film which we have seen before; Bitcoin price crash was seen and experienced by traders back in 2013 and also in 2014. Bitcoin is an animal which is known for it’s volatility. When it pops (to the upside), it makes your eyes pop, when it drops it makes your jaws drop.

Bitcoin plunged below 10K yesterday and there is no doubt in saying that the cryptocurrency remains a very risky bet. One should only play with the money that he/she can afford to lose. The massive drop in Bitcoin’s price could easily be blamed on a lot of things and there is a heap of bad news around it’s ecosystem such as; Visa, all of sudden decided to shut down some of the cryptocurrency cards. Regulators decided it is time to flex their muscles and BitConnect announcement to close it’s lending and exchange platform added further fuel to the fire in the crypto space. Although, from the outset, it does appear that it would be difficult to see South Korea ban all the virtual currency exchanges, however, if it becomes the reality, remember it is already baked in the price. Countries like Japan which are favouring this market would benefit far more and it doesn’t necessarily mean that the market would die altogether- at least not that easily

But, we do believe anyone who says that he knows the exact reason for the massive fall would be fooling himself. This is a market of speculators who are looking to become wealthy and we agree with that. However, the argument that the (present) adopted fiat and regulatory system is way behind the curve, is stabbing at the right place.

The bitcoin price is way oversold when you look at it from a technical perspective. Fear of missing out the opportunity among investors is kicking in and this could be the very reason that we are experiencing a dead cat bounce, if not a bottom for the Bitcoin price. The explosive move for the Bitcoin price back in November 24th (which started the stellar rally) could be the area of the support, if not then there is more pain to come. If history serves us correctly, Bitcoin has the ability to fall as much as 80% and that means that the price could drop all the way to $3935 from its peak of 2017.

The advent of Bitcoin futures contracts fuelled the optimism amid investors, however, the expiry of these futures contracts (this week) is the very source of trepidation. To some extent, the evolution of Bitcoin futures stopped the Bitcoin price to make record highs, thanks to a greater number of the bearish bets. Those bearish bets certainly made money this time (during this week's price meltdown), an opportunity which was not present back in 2013 and 2014. The important price levels which everyone is looking at in the market is your 100 and 200-day moving averages (SMA 100 @ $9943 and SMA 200 @ $6667).

G-10

Euro and Yen are steering the ship

G-10 traders remain painstakingly focused on both EUR and JPY after ECB and BOJ jawboning has tempered the bearish dollar sentiment in Asia today. While the greenback trades a tad firmer, sloppy and choppy markets look set to continue in early London trade.

Australian Dollar

Much of this mornings excitement centred around the Australian Jobs print which saw the Aussie break 80 level. But given the volatility around this series, it does little to move the RBA dial and the Aussie quickly retraced.

China Data

This afternoons China data dump delivered a convincing package if you can overlook the Retail sales miss. And while a bit perplexing, there is no denying the power of the Chinese consumer, and with the powerful forces of commercialism griping mainland consumers, China is primed to surpass the US as the world's most prominent retail spender.Certainly, 2018 should bode well at Beijing check out counters.

Asian currencies trade with a weaker bias. most of the session

Malaysian Ringgit

While the USDMYR initially traded higher on the back of rising US Treasury yields as the ensuing stronger US dollar momentum triggered some short covering in early trade. The local unit was more than up for the challenge.

And while higher US bond yields could present some headwinds for the MYR, surging global equity markets and higher energy prices more than offset the pressure from US interest rates, and the local traders started to re-engage short USDMYR positions once the USD correction ran out of steam.

Today's subtle market moves suggest Investors will continue to take advantage of any opportunistic retreat on USDMYR, as bullish momentum remains intact.

We're keeping a very close eye on both EURUSD and USDJPY as both pairs are driving the broader USD market sentiment.And given today's sturdy price action on the Ringgit, at the first sign of US dollar weakness, we could see the Ringgit dive below the
technically significant 6.95 USDMYR level sooner rather than later.

Korean Won

The Monetary Policy Board (MPB) unanimously held the policy rate, 7-day repo rate, unchanged until the next meeting on 27th Feb in line with consensus.From the positive side of a stronger currency by extension, it tightens monetary conditions while buttressing inflation pressures allow the central bank to keep financial conditions accommodative. There's a balancing act when it comes to monetary policy as the CB can choose to tighten financial conditions through a stronger currency or higher interest rates. But to prevent economic imbalances from the stronger Won, the BoK tacked dovish but left the door wide open for further rate hikes down the road.

Strong recovery rally on Wednesday left long bullish daily candle and formed bullish outside day, generating positive signal and sidelining immediate downside risk.

Brief extension higher today, cracked important barrier at 111.41 (Fibo 38.2% of 113.38/110.19 downleg) but without firm break so far.

Plethora of barriers weighs and threats of recovery stall. Falling 10 SMA lies above cracked Fibo barrier at 111.10 and marks next obstacle at 111.60, guarding upper pivots at 111.70/72 (200SMA / weekly cloud top).

Sustained break here would trigger stronger retracement of 113.38/110.19 downleg.

Res: 111.41, 111.60, 111.70, 111.87
Sup: 111.10, 110.60, 110.15, 110.00

Cable maintains firm tone on Thursday despite strong upside rejection after spike to 1.3942 high (the highest since Brexit vote) previous day.

Choppy trading was caused by increased volatility on political uncertainty over Brexit divorce process.

Bullish techs favor further upside, with bulls eyeing psychological 1.4000 barrier.

Close above 1.3837 (cracked Fibo 61.8% of 1.5016/1.1930 fall) is required to confirm continuation of bull-leg from 1.3457 (11 Jan trough) and open way for eventual test of 1.4000 barrier.

The pair is riding on the third wave of five-wave cycle from 1.3038 (03 Nov higher base) with 1.4000 barrier marking its FE 138.2%.

Sustained break here would open way for extension towards 1.4123 (FE 161.8%).

Meanwhile, extended corrective dips could be anticipated, as daily techs are overbought and Wednesday's strong upside rejection weighs.

Rising 10SMA (1.3670) should contain extended downticks.

Res: 1.3847, 1.3900, 1.3942, 1.4000
Sup: 1.3804, 1.3756, 1.3741, 1.3700

The Euro posted new low at 1.2165 in early Thursday's trading, but bounced back to 1.2200 zone, sidelining immediate downside risk. Wednesday's strong rejection above 1.2300 mark left big bearish daily candle with long upper shadow, completing Doji reversal pattern on daily chart and generating bearish signal for deeper correction. However, strong support, provided by Fibo 38.2% of 1.1915/1.2323 upleg, keeps the downside attempts limited for now, splitting the possibilities of extended correction and reversal. Underlying bulls keep focus at the upside and favor dip-buying strategy. Strong bids lay at 1.2167 (Fibo 38.2%) and 1.2119/00 (daily Tenkan-sen/10SMA). Bearish scenario would activate on firm break below 1.2100.

Res: 1.2217, 1.2259, 1.2296, 1.2323
Sup: 1.2165, 1.2119, 1.2100, 1.2071