Sample Category Title

Aussie Trading Flat In The Morning Session

GCI Financial

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD slightly rose against the USD and closed at 0.7604.

LME Copper prices declined 1.1% or $75.5/MT to $6892.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.3% or $5.5/MT to $2109.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7604, with the AUD trading flat against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7588, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7573. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7632, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7661.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Euro Trading A Tad Higher, Ahead Of Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence Data

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.18% against the USD and closed at 1.1900.

On the data front, Italy's consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell to a level of 114.3 in November, defying market expectations for a rise to a level of 116.5. In the previous month, the index had registered a revised reading of 116.0.

The greenback erased some of its losses against its key peers, on the heels of better-than-expected data on the US housing sector.

Data showed that new home sales in the US surprisingly climbed 6.2% on a monthly basis to a level of 685.0K in October, soaring to its highest level in a decade, amid robust demand across the nation. In the prior month, the new home sales had registered a revised level of 645.0K, while markets had anticipated for a fall to a level of 627.0K. On the other hand, the nation's Dallas Fed manufacturing business index dropped more-than-expected to a level of 19.4 in November, after recording a reading of 27.6 in the prior month. Market participants had anticipated the index to ease to a level of 24.0.

Meanwhile, Jerome Powell, the US President, Donald Trump's nominee for the next Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, stated that he expects the US central bank to continue gradual interest rate hikes in order to achieve dual goals of maximum employment and stable prices.

Additionally, the Dallas Fed President, Robert Kaplan signalled his support for a December interest rate hike, stating that waiting too long to tighten policy could increase the risk of recession.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1905, with the EUR trading marginally higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1877, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1849. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1947, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1989.

Moving forward, traders would keep a close watch on Germany's GfK consumer confidence index for December, slated to release in a few hours. Later in the day, the US advance goods trade balance for October and the CB consumer confidence index for November, will garner significant amount of investor attention. Additionally, the release of OECD economic outlook report, will be on investors' radar.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average

Pound Trading Marginally Higher In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP slightly rose against the USD and closed at 1.3322.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3325, with the GBP trading a tad higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3296, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3266. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3369, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3412.

Looking ahead, investors would focus on UK’s Nationwide house prices data for November, due to release in a while.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

Japanese Yen Reverses Its Gains In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.31% against the JPY and closed at 111.05.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 111.21, with the USD trading 0.14% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

Meanwhile, Japanese Government indicated that it detected radio signals which suggests that North Korea may be preparing for another ballistic missile launch.

The pair is expected to find support at 110.88, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.55. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.5, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.79.

Going ahead, Japan’s retail trade and large retailers’ sales data, both for October, scheduled to release overnight, will be eyed by market participants.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Swiss Franc Trading A Tad Lower In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.07% against the CHF and closed at 0.9812.

On the macro front, Switzerland’s total sight deposits fell to a level of CHF577.5 billion in the week ended 24 November, compared to a level of CHF577.6 billion reported in the previous week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9815, with the USD trading marginally higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9789, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9763. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9831, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9847.

Amid no macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Loonie Trading Flat, Ahead Of BoC Governor’s Speech

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.33% against the CAD and closed at 1.2762.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2762, with the USD trading flat against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2704, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2647. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2795, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2829.

Ahead in the day, investors would keep a close watch on a speech by the Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor, Stephen Poloz.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1875; (P) 1.1918 (R1) 1.1941; More....

With 1.1860 minor support intact, intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside. Current rise from 1.1553 should target a test on 1.2091 high. Break there will resume medium term up trend from 1.0339 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.2494, which is close to 1.2516 long term fibonacci level. We'd expect strong resistance from there to bring reversal. On the downside, touching 1.1860 support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 1.1712 support is needed to indicate completion of rise from 1.1553. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we'd be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1393) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3290; (P) 1.3336; (R1) 1.3363; More....

With 1.3278 minor support intact, further rise is expected in GBP/USD for 61.8% retracement of 1.3651 to 1.3026 at 1.3412. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.3651 high. Nonetheless, rejection from 1.3412, or break of 1.3278 minor support will revive the case that price actions from 1.3026 are merely correction. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.3026 low in that case.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, GBP/USD hit strong resistance from the long term falling trend line. Nonetheless, subsequent fall was contained by 55 week EMA (now at 1.3069). Outlook is a bit mixed. For the moment, as long as 1.3835 support turned resistance holds, medium term rise from 1.1946 are viewed as a corrective pattern. That is, we'd expect another leg in the long term down trend through 1.1946 low. However, sustained break of 1.3835 should at least send GBP/USD to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466.

GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9788; (P) 0.9804; (R1) 0.9832; More....

USD/CHF formed a temporary low at 0.9776 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another fall is expected as long as 0.9946 resistance holds. Below 0.9776 will extend the decline from 1.0037 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9420 to 1.0037 at 0.9656. We'll look for bottoming again below 0.9656 and above 0.9420. On the upside, break of 0.9946 resistance will indicate that the decline from 1.0037 has completed and bring retest of this resistance.

In the bigger picture, range trading continues between 0.9420/1.0342. At this point, 0.9420 appears to be a strong support level. Therefore, in case of decline attempt, we don't expect a firm break of this level. Nonetheless, strong break of 1.0342 is also needed to confirm upside momentum. Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.73; (P) 111.20; (R1) 111.57; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside with 111.68 minor resistance intact. Current fall from 114.73 would target 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14. For the moment, we're still favoring the case medium term corrective pattern from 118.65 has completed at 107.31 already. Hence, we'll looking for bottoming below 110.14 to bring another rise. On the upside, above 116.68 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 107.31 support holds, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. And another rise is in favor. Break of 114.73 resistance will target a test on 118.65 high first. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this will and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.