Sample Category Title
Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF – Hold short entered at 0.9935
USD/CHF - 0.9908
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term down
Tenkan-Sen level : 0.9911
Kijun-Sen level : 0.9891
Ichimoku cloud top : 0.9921
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 0.9888
Original strategy :
Sold at 0.9935, Target: 0.9835, Stop: 0.9970
Position : - Short at 0.9935
Target : - 0.9835
Stop : - 0.9970
New strategy :
Hold short entered at 0.9935, Target: 0.9835, Stop: 0.9970
Position : - Short at 0.9935
Target : - 0.9835
Stop : - 0.9970
As the greenback has rebounded after falling to 0.9846 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation above this level would be seen and marginal gain from here cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 0.9940-45 would limit upside and bring another decline later, below said support at 0.9846 would signal the erratic decline from 1.0038 top is still in progress for at least a retracement of early upmove to previous resistance at 0.9837, break below there would encourage for subsequent decline towards 0.9795-00 which is likely to hold on first testing.
In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 0.9935. Above 0.9940-45 would defer and risk test of 0.9970-75 but price should alter below resistance at 0.9987, bring another decline later.
Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.3100
GBP/USD - 1.3193
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term down
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.3172
Kijun-Sen level : 1.3172
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.3162
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.3138
Original strategy :
Buy at 1.3100, Target: 1.3210, Stop: 1.3065
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
New strategy :
Buy at 1.3100, Target: 1.3210, Stop: 1.3065
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
As the British pound retreated after rising to 1.3214 yesterday, retaining our view that further consolidation would take place, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.3100 and 1.3075-80 should hold, bring another bounce to 1.3210-15, then towards resistance at 1.3230 would be seen, having said that, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon upside would be limited to 1.3250 and price should falter below 1.3275-80.
In view of this, we are looking to buy cable on dips as 1.3100-05 should limit downside. Below 1.3075 would risk test of said support at 1.3062 but break there is needed to suggest a downside break of recent broad range has taken place, bring retest of strong support area at 1.3027-39, only break there would confirm and extend recent decline to psychological support at 1.3000 first.
Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.1745
EUR/USD - 1.1780
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term up
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.1779
Kijun-Sen level : 1.1809
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.1802
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.1746
Original strategy :
Buy at 1.1745, Target: 1.1845, Stop: 1.1710
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
New strategy :
Buy at 1.1745, Target: 1.1845, Stop: 1.1710
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
As the single currency retreated after rising to 1.1861 yesterday, retaining our view that consolidation below this level would be seen, however, reckon 1.1745-50 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1637-1.1861) would limit downside and bring another rise later, above 1.1830-35 would bring a retest of said resistance at 1.1861, break there would extend recent rise from 1.1554 low to previous resistance at 1.1880, then 1.1900-10.
In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy euro on subsequent pullback as 1.1745-50 should limit downside. Below the lower Kumo (now at 1.1721) would defer and signal a temporary top is formed instead, bring weakness to previous resistance at 1.1678 (now support) but only break there would provide confirmation.
Canada: Manufacturing Sales Post a Surprising Gain in September
Contrary to market expectations for a decline (-0.5% m/m), Canadian manufacturing sales climbed 0.5% on a month-on-month basis. Volumes were up a touch more, +0.7% m/m, and prices fell back a bit.
Petroleum and coal product sales drove gains in the month (+10.3%), largely a reflection of strong volume growth, and marks the third consecutive monthly advance. Machinery (+1.9% m/m) and paper industries (+1.0% m/m) also recorded gains, with volumes outpacing nominal performance.
Transportation equipment industry sales fell 0.7% m/m, driven by declines in the motor vehicle (-5.9%) and motor vehicle parts (-2.5%) industries; the decline in volumes was a little less pronounced.
Quebec recorded a gain of 1.7% in September, as petroleum and coal manufacturing and the aerospace industry helped propel sales to their highest level on record ($13.3 billion). Performance across the remaining provinces was generally positive with the exception of Nova Scotia (-3.9%), Ontario (-0.9%), and Alberta (-0.9%).
Inventory levels declined for the fourth consecutive month, helping to push the inventory-to-sales ratio down a bit to 1.36 (August: 1.38). Forward looking indicators declined in September, with unfilled orders falling 1.1% and new orders declining 1.7%.
Key Implications
Both headline and volume prints for manufacturing sales were surprisingly strong despite concerns that labour disruptions at an assembly plant in Ontario could negatively impact automotive sales. This report follows on the heels of a hot August report that featured a rebound in automotive production.
Overall, today's report remains consistent with our view that after four consecutive quarters of growth well in excess of trend the Canadian economy has slowed to a more sustainable pace of around 2.0% in the third quarter.
AUDJPY Bearish Zig Zag Pattern Aiming for 85.35 if 86.25 Holds
The AUD/JPY is following a bearish zigzag pattern that could reach D camarilla support levels as I showed during my Real-Time Daily Trading Ideas Live Webinar today. The AUD/JPY could reject from the POC zone 85.90-95 (50.0, W L5, EMA89, D H3) and as long as 85.18-25 holds we might see a drop towards 85.50 and 85.35. Only if we see a 4h or 1h momentum close below 85.35 the pair might target 85.05 and 84.56. Have in mind that the AUD/JPY is a bislow moving pair so it might take some time to get to its final target. At this point the focus is on the POC zone.
- H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
- W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
- D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
- D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
- D L4 - Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
- PPR - Progressive Polynomial Channel
- POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1763; (P) 1.1811 (R1) 1.1839; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.1860 temporary top. Outlook is unchanged that correction from 1.2091 has completed at 1.1553 already. Further rise is expected. Above 1.1860 will target 1.2091 high. However, break of 1.1677 support will turn focus back to 1.1553 low instead.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we'd be cautious on 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1346) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.40; (P) 112.94; (R1) 113.42; More...
With 113.90 minor resistance intact, deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 111.89 first. Sustained break of 111.64 support will now argue that rise from 107.31 has completed. In that case, USD/JPY should target 61.8% retracement at 101.14. On the upside, break of 113.90 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall. Otherwise, near term outlook will now stay cautiously bearish.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming. However, firm break of 111.64 support will dampen this view and turn focus back to 107.31 instead.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9850; (P) 0.9881; (R1) 0.9915; More....
Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral as it rebounds ahead of 0.9835 resistance turned support. Such rebound remains near term bullishness in the pair and favors further rise. Decisive break of 1.0037 resistance will extend the rise from 0.9420 and target 1.0342 high. However, firm break of 0.9835 will argue that whole rebound form 0.9420 is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, USD/CHF should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9420 to 1.0037 at 0.9565 and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that USD/CHF has defended 0.9443 (2016 low) key support level again. Rise from 0.9420 could is a medium term up move and should target a test on 1.0342 high. This represents the upper end of a long term range that started back in 2015. On the downside, break of 0.9736 support is now needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.9420. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in medium term.
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3127; (P) 1.3171; (R1) 1.3212; More....
GBP/USD recovers today but stays at around middle of range of 1.3038/3337. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. In case of further rise, upside should be limited below 1.3337 resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 1.3038 will now resume decline from 1.3651 to 1.2773 key support level. However, decisive break of 1.3337 will indicate that pull back from 1.3651 is completed and medium term rise from 1.1946 is resuming.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, GBP/USD hit strong resistance from the long term falling trend line. Current development is starting to favor that corrective rebound from 1.1946 low has completed at 1.3651. Decisive break of 1.2773 will confirm this bearish case and target a test on 1.1946 low next, with prospect of resuming the low term down trend. Nonetheless, break of 1.3320 resistance will restore the rise from 1.1946 for 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466.
Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 112.60
USD/JPY - 113.01
Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Near term down
Tenkan-Sen level : 112.94
Kijun-Sen level : 112.86
Ichimoku cloud top : 113.47
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 113.37
Original strategy :
Bought at 112.60, Target: 113.60, Stop: 112.60
Position : - Long at 112.60
Target : - 113.60
Stop : - 112.60
New strategy :
Hold long entered at 112.60, Target: 113.60, Stop: 112.60
Position : - Long at 112.60
Target : - 113.60
Stop : - 112.60
Although the greenback extended recent decline to as low as 112.48, the subsequent rebound has retained our near term bullishness and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for recovery to 113.40, then 113.60, however, as top has been formed at 114.74 earlier this month, reckon upside would be limited and price should falter well below resistance at 113.91, bring another decline later.
In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 112.60. Below said support at 112.48 would risk weakness to 112.26-30 (100% projection of 114.74-113.09 measuring from 113.91 and previous support) but loss of momentum should prevent sharp fall below 112.00-05.
