Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 189.79; (P) 191.07; (R1) 192.00; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 199.79 should target 183.70 support. Break there will bring retest of 180.00 low. On the downside, above 192.45 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 194.73) holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.63; (P) 158.80; (R1) 159.55; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside, as fall from 166.67 is in progress for 155.14 support first. Firm break there will raise the chance that whole decline from 175.41 is resuming, and target 154.40 low next. On the upside, above 159.08 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8295; (P) 0.8314; (R1) 0.8325; More...

EUR/GBP dips notably today but stays above 0.8259 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further decline is expected with 0.8446 resistance intact. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8259 will resume larger down trend to 0.8201 key support.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is in progress. Next target is 0.8201 (2022 low), but strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. However, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8624 resistance holds even in case of strong rebound. Decisive break of 0.8201 will indicate long term bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6200; (P) 1.6229; (R1) 1.6270; More...

Outlook in EUR/AUD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 1.6359 resistance will be the first sign of bullish reversal and target 1.6598 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, below 1.6125 minor support will bring retest of 1.5963 low.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 1.5996 key support level. Sustained break there will argue that whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is already reversing. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7180 at 1.5388, even as a correction. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.6359 resistance, will keep medium term outlook neutral at worst.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9300; (P) 0.9313; (R1) 0.9333; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is in favor with 0.9343 resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.9269 minor support will bring retest of 0.9204/9 support zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger down trend resumption. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.9343 will now be a sign of near term bullish reversal, and target 0.9444 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 0.9444 resistance holds. Decisive break of 0.9209 low will resumed long term down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9772 to 0.9209 from 0.9444 at 0.9096 next.

• EURUSD meets 1.0500 again
• Stochastic and RSI continue bearish moves

EURUSD failed to extend its bullish movement above the 1.0600 round number, which overlaps with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), raising the likelihood for further downside movements.

According to technical oscillators the upside momentum of the last ten days may come to an end. The stochastic oscillator posted a bearish crossover within its %K and %D lines in the overbought territory, while the RSI is sloping south below the neutral threshold of 50.

If the price continues the selling interest, then the first support for traders to look for is the 1.0450 barricade. Even lower, the two-year low of 1.0330 may pause the bearish move; but if a lower low take place, then the market may visit November 2022 trough at 1.0220.

In the positive scenario, a climb above the 1.0600 obstacle could add some optimism for more bullish actions heading towards the 1.0665 bar and the 1.0800 round number, which coincides with the 50-day SMA.

To conclude, EURUSD has been in a bearish tendency since September 25, losing around 8%. The signs for upside correction are fading, especially as long as the price remains below 1.0600.

GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.2600 resistance. EUR/GBP declined steadily below the 0.8340 and 0.8330 support levels.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2620.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2680 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8330 pivot level.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8305 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair declined after it failed to clear the 1.3000 resistance. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound even traded below the 1.2800 support against the US Dollar.

Finally, the pair tested the 1.2500 zone and is currently attempting a fresh increase. The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2600. The pair even climbed above the 1.2700 level.

A high was formed at 1.2749 and the pair is now consolidating gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2506 swing low to the 1.2749 high.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2720. The next major resistance is near 1.2750. A close above the 1.2750 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2800. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2880.

On the downside, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2680. If there is a downside break below 1.2680, the pair could accelerate lower. The first major support is near the 1.2630 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2506 swing low to the 1.2749 high.

The next key support is seen near 1.2600, below which the pair could test 1.2570. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2510 support.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/GBP at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from well above 0.8350. The Euro traded below the 0.8320 and 0.8320 support levels against the British Pound.

The EUR/GBP chart suggests that the pair even declined below the 0.8300 level and tested 0.8290. It is now consolidating losses and trading below the 50-hour simple moving average. The pair is now facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8364 swing high to the 0.8289 low.

There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8305. The next major resistance could be 0.8330. It coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8364 swing high to the 0.8289 low.

The main resistance is near the 0.8340 zone. A close above the 0.8340 level might accelerate gains. In the stated case, the bulls may perhaps aim for a test of 0.8365. Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.8400 level.

Immediate support sits near 0.8290. The next major support is near 0.8265. A downside break below the 0.8265 support might call for more downsides. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward the 0.8240 support level.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Latvia’s ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks indicated his support for an interest rate cut at next week’s ECB meeting, citing the belief that inflation problem "will soon end."

However, Kazaks acknowledged the high level of uncertainty following the widely expected rate cut. He pointed to risks tied to US President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming administration, noting that new tariffs could further weigh on Europe’s economy.

Despite these concerns, Kazaks maintained a cautiously optimistic view, stating that "Europe’s economy is going from its lowest point upwards."

In an interview with the Financial Times, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane indicated that the central is preparing to adjust its monetary policy approach as inflation moves closer to the 2% target.

While acknowledging that inflation has fallen near the desired level, Lane noted that "there is a little bit of distance to go," especially with services inflation needing further reduction.

However, Lane emphasized that once the disinflation process is complete, monetary policy decisions will need to become "essentially forward-looking," focusing on upcoming risks rather than relying on past data. He highlighted the importance of scanning the horizon for "new shocks" that could impact inflation pressures.

Over the course of next year, Lane expects a "transition to a more sustainable neighborhood of 2%," signifying a shift from combating high inflation to maintaining price stability on a sustainable basis.

Markets

The front end of the European yield curve outperformed going into the weekend. Rates dropped almost 5 bps in the 2-yr German tenor, enough to lose the symbolical 2% barrier to close at a 2-year low. It followed European inflation numbers coming in at the expected 2.3% headline, which prompted ECB’s de Guindos and Villeroy but also Nagel downplaying the acceleration above 2%. Core inflation missed the bar slightly with an October-matching 2.7% instead of 2.8% expected. The ECB’s chief economist Lane in a podcast with the Financial Times talked about the matter and the implications for monetary policy. In comments recorded prior to the CPI release Lane said once inflation was sure to return to 2%, the ECB needs “to be driven by upcoming risks rather than being backward-looking”. He refrained from giving time specifics but it suggests the central bank may already change some of its wording in the December policy statement so that “data dependence falls down in priority”. US yields were headed south as well. Net daily changes varied between 7.6 and 9.4 bps but we wouldn’t read too much into it. The US trading session was a shortened one due to Black Friday. The traditional start of the holiday shopping season was a strong one with sales growing at a faster pace this year. Joe Sixpack to the economy is a gift that keeps on giving. The dollar underperformed in currency markets, a product of falling yields and stock optimism. JPY was able to make the most out of it, thanks to consensus-beating Tokyo inflation numbers. USD/JPY dropped below 150. EUR/USD stranded just shy of 1.06 before going in reverse again this morning towards 1.052. French politics are once again cause of concern. Le Pen over the weekend said PM Barnier needs to amend the budget to some of the RN’s demands by today or have her Rassemblement National supporting a no-confidence motion. The finance minister Armand responded in a Bloomberg interview in early Asian trading by saying they won’t be blackmailed and don’t take ultimatums. French OAT futures currently tank, yields prepare for a sharply higher open. Spreads vs swap and German Bund are bound to rise. Watch out for French yields to surpass those in Greece. Last week was a dress rehearsal. The French theme will keep yields and the especially the euro in a tight spot at the very minimum in a daily perspective but more likely for the next two weeks going into December 12, when parliament gets to vote on the budget for a last time. In the US the monthly economic update kicks off with the manufacturing ISM today, followed by the services gauge and ADP job report on Wednesday and the official payrolls report on Friday. Fed’s Waller speech at "Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference" tonight is worth mentioning.

News & Views

Rating agency Moody’s on Friday changed Hungary’s credit rating outlook to negative from stable. The rating was maintained at Baa2. It reflects the agency’s assessment related to risks related to the quality of Hungary’s institutions and governance. The country may ultimately lose out on a substantial amount of EU funds because it doesn’t meet the conditions for the release. Moody’s thinks this could also lower trend GDP growth and weaken fiscal and debt metrics. As this happens in a context of weak growth in Germany, an important trading partner, this could amplify the negative pressure on the economy. Moody’s mentions a potential sharp increase in government spending ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections. The rating agency still sees a partial reversal in 2025 of the weakening in debt affordability from the past two years. At the same it mentions institutional weakness weighing on the debt profile, including in adherence to the rule of law, interference in civil society and concerns over central bank independence and monetary policy. The agency sees growth returning to an average of 3.0% in the 2026-28 period.

GDP growth in India slowed to 5.4% Y/Y from 6.7% Y/Y in Q3. Expectations were for a 6.5% Y/Y growth. Growth in the agricultural sector held up fairly well (3.5% Y/Y from 2.0%) but mining contracted 0.1%. Manufacturing slowed from 7.0% to 2.2% and growth in the sectors of electricity, gas and water (3.3%), construction (7.7% from 10.5%) and financial services/real estate (6.7%) were lower than Q2. On the demand side, private consumption growth slowed from 7.4% Y/Y to 6.0%, as did growth capital formation (5.4% from 7.5%). The disappointing growth performance might pressure the RBI of India not to wait too long with its easing cycle. The bank has kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.50% since February 2023. The rupee is setting new all-time lows against the dollar this morning (USD/INR 84.68).