Sample Category Title
Japan’s Adjusted Merchandise Trade Surplus Unexpectedly Narrowed In September
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.77% against the JPY and closed at 113.04.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 113, with the USD trading marginally lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.
Data released overnight showed that Japan's adjusted merchandise trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed to ¥240.3 billion in September, compared to a revised surplus of ¥308.3 billion in the previous month. Markets had anticipated the nation's adjusted merchandise trade surplus to widen to ¥309.2 billion.
Early morning data revealed that the nation's all industry activity index rebounded 0.1% in August, falling short of market expectations for an advance of 0.2%. In the previous month, the index had dropped 0.1%.
The pair is expected to find support at 112.4, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.81. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.34, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.69.
Going ahead, traders will look forward to Japan's final machine tool orders for September, due to release in a while.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Swiss Franc Trading A Tad Higher This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.32% against the CHF and closed at 0.9812.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9808, with the USD trading marginally lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9777, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9745. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9838, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9867.
Looking forward, market participants will closely monitor Switzerland’s trade balance figures for September, due to release in a while.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Canada’s Manufacturing Shipments Climbed To An 8-Month High In August
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.4% against the CAD and closed at 1.2464.
On the data front, Canada's manufacturing shipments surprisingly advanced 1.6% MoM in August, rising the most in eight months and compared to a fall of 2.6% in the previous month. Investor had envisaged manufacturing shipments to drop 0.3%.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2471, with the USD trading 0.06% higher against the CAD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2437, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2404. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2519, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2568.
Amid no macroeconomic releases in Canada today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2437; (P) 1.2485; (R1) 1.2513; More....
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 1.2598 is still in progress. In case of deeper fall, we'd now expect downside to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.2598 at 1.2393 to bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 1.2598 will extend the rebound from 1.2061 to 1.2777 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4869 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we'd favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Break of 1.2777 will further affirm this bullish case. That is, larger up trend from 0.9406 is not completed. And in that case, USD/CAD should target 1.3793 resistance next. However, on the other hand, firm break of 1.2048 will indicate that fall from 1.4689 is at least a medium term down trend and should target 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.


AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7824; (P) 0.7841; (R1) 0.7862; More...
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Another rise is mildly in favor and break of 0.7896 will target a test on 0.8124 high. But we'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside and bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern. On the downside, break of 0.7732 will resume the decline from 0.8124 and target medium term fibonacci level at 0.7628 first.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is seen as corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it might be completed with three waves up to 0.8124 already. Break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7628 will firm this bearish case. And, decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement at 0.7322) will confirm and bring retest of 0.6826 low. In case rise from 0.6826 resumes and extends, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside.


EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1742; (P) 1.1773 (R1) 1.1818; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/USD is neutral for the moment. Above 1.1818 will turn bias to the upside for 1.1879. Break there will revive the case that pull back from 1.2091 has completed at 1.1669, ahead of 1.1661 support. In that case, rebound from 1.1669 should resume for retesting 1.2091 high. On the downside, below 1.1729 will bring retest of 1.1669. Break there will resume whole corrective fall from 1.2091. In that case, EUR/USD will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. Strong support is expected there to complete the correction.
In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It's expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.


GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3158; (P) 1.3183; (R1) 1.3227; More....
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.3120 will indicate that recovery from 1.3026 is completed at 1.3337. And fall from 1.3651 is resuming for 1.2773 support. That will revive that case that medium term rise from 1.1946 has completed at 1.3651. Meanwhile, above 1.3337 will bring retest of 1.3651 high instead.
In the bigger picture, while the medium term rebound from 1.1946 was strong, GBP/USD hit strong resistance from the long term falling trend line. Outlook is turned a bit mixed and we'll turn neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2773 key support will argue that rebound from 1.1946 has completed. The corrective structure of rise from 1.1946 to 1.3651 will in turn suggest that long term down trend is now completed. Break of 1.1946 low should then be seen. On the upside, break of 1.3835 support turned resistance will revive the case of trend reversal and target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466.


USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9781; (P) 0.9808; (R1) 0.9843; More....
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral with focus on 0.9835 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of rebound from 0.9420. In that case, USD/CHF should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9420 at 0.9990 next. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support will argue that rebound from 0.9420 has completed. This will also mixed up the near term outlook and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9587 support.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that USD/CHF has defended 0.9443 (2016 low) key support level again. Rise from 0.9420 could develop into a medium term move and target a test on 1.0342 high. This represents the upper end of a long term range that started back in 2015. On the downside, break of 0.9587 support is now needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.9420. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in medium term.


USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.35; (P) 112.70; (R1) 113.27; More...
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remain son the upside for 113.43 resistance. Break there will resume the rise from 107.31 and target 114.49 resistance. More importantly current development revives the case that correction from 118.65 has completed at 107.31. Decisive break of 114.49 will pave the way to retest 118.65 high. However, break of 111.64 will mixed up the outlook again.
In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It's unclear whether this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don't expect a break there on first attempt.


GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.26; (P) 148.69; (R1) 149.51; More
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 149.73 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected. Below 146.92 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45. Such decline is seen as a correction and we'd look for strong support from 144.45 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 149.73 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 152.82 high. However, sustained break of 144.45 will put 139.29 key support in focus.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.


