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EURUSD is neutral to bearish in the short term after breaking below its 50-day moving average. The broader uptrend from the April low of 1.0820 ran out of steam at the September 8 high of 1.2091.

Following three consecutive days of losses, EURUSD stabilized in the lower 1.1700 handle and is being capped by the 50-day MA at 1.1845. Despite the recent rebound off 1.1716, the risk is still tilted to the downside since RSI is in a downtrend and has crossed below 50 into bearish territory. MACD is downward sloping and fell below zero, suggesting there is scope for more downside in the market.

Immediate support is expected at 1.1661 (August 17 low). A break below this level would likely bring about more weakness in the market for a move to 1.1471, which was an area of congestion recently and acted as both support and resistance during July. This level is also near the 50% Fibonacci of the upleg from 1.0820 to 1.2091. A deeper fall from this point would see the start of a reversal of the April to September uptrend.

A move back above the 50-day MA and 1.1900 resistance would improve the odds for a re-test of the 1.2091 top and would see a resumption of the uptrend that started from 1.0820.

As long as EURUSD trades above 1.1661 and below 1.2091, the pair would maintain a neutral bias in the short term. The deteriorating momentum indicators are keeping risk to the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9656; (P) 0.9689; (R1) 0.9707; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment, with focus on 0.9772 resistance. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9772 key resistance will suggest that whole down trend form 1.0342 has completed. In that case, near term outlook will be turned bullish for 0.9860/1.0099 resistance zone. Nonetheless, with 0.9772 resistance intact, outlook remains bearish. Below 0.9587 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9420 low.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on whether 0.9443 key support (2016 low) could be taken out firmly as down trend from 1.0342 extends. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9772 resistance holds. Current down trend could extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.9090. However, break of 0.9772 will indicate that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 again and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.20; (P) 112.47; (R1) 112.72; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 113.25 temporary top. As long as 111.46 minor support holds, further rise is in favor. Sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 111.46 will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It's unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don't expect a break there on first attempt.

With markets in China, South Korea, Hong Kong and India being closed for public holidays, the dollar managed to recover from earlier losses against its peers in Asia – helped by higher US Treasury yields – while the euro recorded a downtrend in the wake of a political crisis in Spain.

The dollar posted gains versus a basket of major currencies during the Asian session on the back of higher US Treasury yields, with the dollar index rising by 0.40% on the day to 93.26. The 10-year US Treasury yields rose from Friday’s closing of 2.326 percent to 2.360 percent.

The yen fell by 0.35% versus the dollar, driving dollar/yen to 112.86. The yen’s weakness and a stronger global demand boosted business confidence in Japan as the BOJ’s Tankan Large Manufacturers index reached 22 in the third quarter, the highest level since September 2007, while analysts anticipated the index to rise by one point to 18. The index for large non-manufacturers remained steady at 23 as expected. Japanese big manufacturers were also the most confident in a decade about their business activities, leading the corresponding index to touch 19, up from the 15 seen in the previous quarter and above the 16 that was projected by analysts.

The euro opened weak against the greenback in Asia after Sunday’s independence vote in Catalonia, which was declared illegitimate by the Spanish government, ended into violence, exacerbating political tensions in the country. Hundreds of people were injured after police forces approached voting polls to prevent the banned referendum, using sticks and rubber bullets. Even though initial estimates showed that 90% of the votes were in favor of independence, this would be a unilateral declaration of independence as the ballot does not have a legal status.

Euro/dollar was 0.43% down on the day at 1.1762, while euro/pound was 0.10% weaker at 0.8806.

In other currencies, the aussie fell by 0.29% to $0.7810 after the AIG manufacturing index dropped by 5.6 points to 54.2 in September, posting the lowest mark since February. However, aussie lovers will keep a close eye on the RBA’s policy decision tomorrow where forecasts are for the rates to remain steady at 1.5%.

The kiwi also pulled back by 0.28% to 0.7185 ahead of coalition talks to form a government in New Zealand that are said to begin this week. According to media, the kingmaker First Party will hold separate discussions with the National and the Labour Party.

Regarding commodities, oil prices followed a downtrend with WTI crude retreating by 0.10% to $51.62 per barrel and Brent declining by 0.23% to $56.66. Gold prices increased by 0.49% to $1,272.50 per ounce on the back of a stronger dollar.

Later in the day, PMI readings are expected to be released from the US, the UK, and the eurozone, while unemployment rate figures out of the eurozone will also be in focus.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.14; (P) 150.71; (R1) 151.21; More

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 152.82 short term top. Deeper fall could be seen but downside should be contained above 146.57 support to bring another rally. Break of 152.82 will extend the larger rise from 122.36 to 61.8% projection of 122.36 to 148.42 from 139.29 at 155.39 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is in progress. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. For now, the bullish scenario is preferred as long as 139.29 support holds.

The USDJPY pair has moved back above key technical resistance, found at 112.70, as the U.S dollar index continues to hold firm above the key 93.00 handle and US-Japanese 10-year bond yield spreads continue to widen.

A number of financial markets in Asia are away on holiday today, which has created low trading volumes and depressed trading ranges in the Asian session. The USDJPY pair is expected to remain intraday bullish whilst holding above the 112.70 level.

Today, the USDJPY pair will be driven by high-impact United States economic data, as we see the release of key manufacturing data likely setting the intraday direction for the pair.

The U.S dollar index is also expected to be a key driver of the pair, with traders looking for further technical confirmation, after last week's key break-out above the U.S dollar index's 200-week moving average.

Key intraday USDJPY support is found at the 112.70 and the pairs daily pivot point, at 112.49. Once below 112.49, further support is found at the former weekly price-low, at 112.21 and the pairs 50-week moving average, at 111.89.

Key intraday USDJPY resistance is found at the 112.91 and the former weekly price high, at 113.25. Once above the 113.25 level, further strong resistance is found at 113.57 and 113.89.

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The euro has opened the new trading week lower against the U.S dollar, as the weekend's Catalonian independence referendum vote has created new political tensions and uncertainty in the eurozone.

Today, the trading sentiment surrounding the EURUSD pair is currently bearish while trading below the 1.1800 level, caution is still advised, as the single currency is known for being resilient while facing adverse fundamental developments.

The economic calendar is full of market moving events for the EURUSD pair today, with PMI manufacturing data from the eurozone and ISM manufacturing data from the United States.

Technically, the euro faces further trading losses below the 1.1770 support level, with intraday selling pressure likely to subside only once above the 1.1800 level.

Key intraday technical support for the EURUSD pair is found at 1.1770, 1.1751 and 1.1732. Key weekly support is found at the pairs 200-week moving average, at 1.1710, once below this level, the euro's decline can accelerate rapidly towards 1.1660 and 1.1610.

To the upside, the 1.1800 and 1.1823 levels act as strong intraday resistance for the EURUSD. Once above the 1.1823 level, further resistance is found at 1.1851 and the pairs monthly pivot point, at 1.1875.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.40; (P) 132.75; (R1) 133.23; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidative trading below 134.39 high. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 131.69 holds. Sustained break of 134.20 fibonacci level will extend larger up trend to 141.04 resistance next. However, break of 131.69 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and will target 127.55 key support level instead.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 109.03 is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. On the downside, break of 127.55 support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

A steady stream of economic data will make headlines on Monday, kicking off a highly active week in the market. Economic figures from both sides of the Atlantic are expected at the start of the week, which should give traders plenty of opportunity to enter the market.

The European data wire begins at 07:15 with manufacturing PMI data for Spain. Over the next two hours, IHS Markit will release final PMI figures for Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and the broader Eurozone.

Meanwhile, the European Commission’s statistical agency will release August unemployment numbers. The jobless rate is forecast to slide to 9% in August from 9.1% the previous month.

In North America, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release US manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT. The closely watched report is expected to show a slight cooldown in factory activity at the end of the fourth quarter.

In terms of monetary policy, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Robert Kaplan will deliver a speech at 18:00 GMT.

The US dollar rose against a basket of global competitors on Monday, as positive momentum returned to the world’s most actively traded currency. The dollar index (DXY) was up 0.3% at 93.36 in Asian trade.

EUR/USD

The euro resumed its descent on Monday, as the dollar regained its momentum. The EUR/USD exchange rate was trading near session lows near 1.1780, having declined 35 pips from the prior close. The pair managed to correct around half of its weekly losses on Friday. However, the near-term outlook remains tilted to the downside as the common currency awaits fresh trading catalysts in the form of economic data and monetary policy.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY advanced to two-and-a-half month highs on Monday, as risk appetite continued to weigh on the Japanese yen. The pair reached a session high of 112.91 in Asian trading before consolidating near 112.81. That represents a gain of 0.3%. Technical indicators have eased off oversold levels, a sign that the bulls continued to lead the market. Upside should remain intact insofar as price action remains above the 100-day simple moving average, which is currently situated at 111.10.

GOLD

Gold prices have been in a perpetual state of decline for the past three weeks. After a sharp rally last Monday, prices resumed their descent to reach one-month lows on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Spot gold was down 0.3% on Monday to trade around $1,275.00 a troy ounce. Bullion is approaching oversold territory on the 15-minute Relative Strength Index (RSI). The MACD is also trekking in negative territory, confirming the sell signal. These data points suggest that the bears remain in firm control of the near-term outlook.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1417; (P) 1.1442; (R1) 1.1457; More...

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook. With 1.1511 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is expected for 1.1355 support first. Break will target 1.1257 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0652 to 1.1622 at 1.1251). Strong support is expected there to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1.1511 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 1.1622.

In the bigger picture, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress. EUR/CHF should now be heading back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds.