Sample Category Title

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1912

Yesterday's dip to 1.1830 failed and there is risk of intraday bounce to 1.2000 interim resistance, but a clear break through 1.1830 support area will signal a major reversal and will challenge 1.1660 and 1.1490 later on.

USD/JPY

Current level - 110.56

The resistance at 111.00 provoked a corrective pullback and there is a chance of one more leg downwards, to 109.20, before advancing higher, towards 112.80. On the senior frames the recent reversal at 107.30 points to 114.50 highs.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.3410

Yesterday's precise test of 1.3157 support failed and the rebound which followed is still active, heading for 1.3440, en route to 1.3530. Key support lies at 1.3340.

The Aussie dollar is holding within narrow range around 0.8000 handle on Friday, struggling to extend recovery from Thursday's strong downside rejection at 0.7955 and close above key supports, daily Kijun-sen/main bull-trendline off 0.7370 low. Overall bullish structure remains intact as pullback from 0.8124 high is seen as corrective action ahead of fresh upside, but expected to hold above the trendline. Traders remain cautious ahead of the weekend after North Korea launched another missile today. Stronger downside risk could be expected on firm break below bull-trendline, which would signal deeper correction towards 0.7929 (Fibo 61.8% of 0.7807/0.8124 upleg) and possible extension towards rising daily cloud top (0.7880). Alternatively, rally and close above daily Tenkan-sen (0.8032) would sideline immediate downside threats and shift focus higher.

Res: 0.8016, 0.8032, 0.8058, 0.8100
Sup: 0.7980, 0.7966, 0.7955, 0.7929

The pair regained traction after short-lived impact from North Korea's missile launch as the price dipped to 109.54 overnight, where 10SMA contained dip. Subsequent swift recovery turned focus towards 111.00 barrier which was dented on Thursday's rally.

Strong barriers lay at 111.00 zone, consisting of base of widening daily cloud and 100SMA. The pair shows scope for eventual break higher which would spark fresh bullish acceleration towards 111.64 (daily cloud top).

However, further hesitation at 111.000 zone could be anticipated as thickening daily cloud continues to weigh, along with overbought slow stochastic on daily chart. Extended consolidation between 110.00 and 111.00 could be expected in the near-term, with spikes lower to stay above 10 SMA and keep bulls in play. Stronger bearish signals could be expected on break below pivots at 109.61/54 (Fibo 38.2% of 107.31/111.00 recovery leg/10SMA.

Res: 110.90, 111.03, 111.13, 111.75
Sup: 110.41, 110.00, 109.54, 109.00

Cable maintains strong bullish tone on Friday and extends gains to the highest levels since late June 2016, approaching target at 1.3473 (weekly cloud top / Fibo 50% of 1.5016/1.1930 descend).

The pair soared on Thursday after hawkish tone from BoE boosted expectations for early rate hike and fresh bullish acceleration on Friday took out falling weekly 100SMA at 1.3420.

Thursday’s long bullish candle continues to underpin for further extension of broader uptrend (recovery rally from post-Brexit lows) for attack at strong barrier provided by weekly cloud top.

Bullish techs on daily / weekly chart are accompanied with strong bullish sentiment and remain supportive for further advance, as break above weekly cloud top could spark fresh bullish acceleration towards 1.3835 (29 Feb low / Fibo 61.8%).

Meanwhile, the pair may show hesitation on approach to 1.3473 target, overextended daily studies suggest correction.

Corrective dips will be seen as fresh buying opportunities, with initial support at standing at 1.3268 (former top of 03 Aug) and rising daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen at 1.3177, expected to contain.

Res: 1.3449, 1.3473, 1.3500, 1.3574
Sup: 1.3381, 1.3334, 1.3300, 1.3268

The Euro is holding within narrow range above 1.1900 handle in early Friday's trading after falling to 1.1837 on Thursday on better than expected US inflation data.

Subsequent bounce formed Hammer candlestick and repeated close above daily Kijun-sen (1.1877) sidelined immediate downside risk.

However, negatively aligned daily tech suggests further weakness, with upticks seen as selling opportunities.

Immediate resistance lies at 1.1942 (10SMA), guarding daily Tenkan- sen (1.1964) which should ideally cap upticks before fresh attempts lower.

Firm break below 1.1837/26 pivots (Thursday's low / Fibo 61.8% of 1.1662/1.2092 upleg) is needed to confirm bearish resumption and expose next target at 1.1763 (Fibo 76.4%) which lies ahead of more significant daily cloud top (1.1720).

Conversely, sustained break above Tenkan-sen barrier (1.1964) and Thursday's high (1.1995), which also marks Fibo 61.8% retracement of 1.2092/1.1837 downleg would neutralize bearish threats and shift near-term focus higher.

From the fundamental side, release of Eurozone's Trade balance (21.4B f/c for July vs 26.6B in June) for July is the highlight of the European session, while US Retail Sales data (0.1% f/c for

Aug vs 0.6% in July and Core Retail Sales expected to stay unchanged at 0.5%), due at the beginning of the US session would have stronger impact on the EURUSD pair.

Res: 1.1942, 1.1964, 1.1995, 1.2029
Sup: 1.1900, 1.1877, 1.1826, 1.1800

The EUR/USD dropped initially after the US consumer inflation reports showed better-than-expected figures. The Euro depreciated against the US Dollar by 0.39% or 46 base points to the 1.1849 mark, though the European single currency managed to return to pre-data levels.

According to the Labour Department's report, the consumer inflation in the US showed a monthly rise of 0.4% in the month of August, with an annual gain of 1.7% in the same period. An increase in the CPI figures boosted expectations for the Fed rate hike in December, which supported bullish sentiment in EUR/USD additionally fuelled by the NK latest missile launch. The next direction of the pair will be determined by Friday’s US retail sales data.

The Sterling managed to offset all Wednesday's losses after the Bank of England announced its decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Following the report, the GBP/USD jumped 118 base points or 0.89% to reach the yearly high and continue consolidation in the 1.3394 area given additional boost from the BoE governor's comments.

Apart from keeping the key interest rate at 0.25%, the Bank of England warned about higher possibility of changing rates policy in coming months for the first time in ten years. The main concerns remained surrounding weaker wage growth, slower overall expansion and uncertainty about Brexit impact on the UK economy. Though, the Central Bank expected the yearly growth to pick up more than estimated.

The EUR/CHF currency rose by 26 base points or 0.23% to continue the trading session nearing the 1.1480 area, after the Swiss National Bank announced its interest rate decision. The weakening against the Euro was a positive sign for the Central Bank, indicating that the Franc slightly diminished its over-valuation.

The Swiss National Bank reported that its key interest rate remained unchanged at -0.75%, and, in the meantime, softened its stance concerning the Franc’s strong performance. However, the SNB is likely to continue focusing on the EU, as it will be seeking the European Central Bank to take action of removing some of the monetary stimulus before considering any changes in its own policy.

In line with expectations, yesterday the exchange rate did not manage to make any significant moves. From the top it was constrained by the 200-hour SMA, while from the bottom by the lower trend-line of a dominant ascending channel. From a general perspective, the rate is expected to continue to try to pave the path to the north, trying to reach by the end of the day at least the monthly R1 at 1,348.36.

A release of information on the US Core Retail Sales, similarly to the yesterday's update on inflation, most likely will cause notable volatility in the markets. However, even in case of a positive result the buck is not expected to drag the pair out of the above formation.

As it was forecasted, in the middle of the day the currency pair indeed tried to soar to the weekly S2, which is located at the 110.98 level, but failed. Accordingly, the rest of the day the rate spent in a red zone. Fortunately for the buck, a combined support formed by the 100-hour SMA and the monthly PP at 109.76 forced the pair to make a turn around. For this reason, the first half of this trading day the currency rate is expected to spend in an upward movement with a preliminary target located near the 110.80 mark. The further movement of the pair will depend on release of information on the US Core Retail Sales as well as on remarks that will be made after the latest ballistic missile test made by North Korea.