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Price rallies and resumes the yesterday's bullish candle. You can see that the price action has developed a Falling Wedge pattern, but this is far from being confirmed. NZD/USD climbed above the 50% retracement level and is almost to touch the upside line of the Falling Wedge pattern.

Only a breakout followed by a minor consolidation above the 50% Fibonacci level will validate it and a bullish momentum.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1868; (P) 1.1895 (R1) 1.1918; More...

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.2069 and intraday bias remains neutral. Below 1.1822 will bring deeper fall. But after all, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1661 holds. Break of 1.2069 will extend larger rise from 1.0339 to next key fibonacci level at 1.2516. Nonetheless, break of 1.1661 will bring much lengthier consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1774) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it's developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we'll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2904; (P) 1.2934; (R1) 1.2957; More...

GBP/USD is supported by 4 hour 55 EMA and recovered. But it's staying well below 1.3030 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral with bearish outlook. We're favoring the case that correction from 1.1946 is completed at 1.3267. Below 1.2852 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.2588 key near term support first. Decisive break of 1.2588 will confirm our view and target a test on 1.1946 low. Though, break of 1.3030 will dampen this bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3267.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern. While further rise cannot be ruled out, larger outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Down trend from 1.7190 (2014 high) is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9544; (P) 0.9581; (R1) 0.9610; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 0.9537 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9427 first. Break of 0.9427 will resume whole decline from 1.3042. Meanwhile, considering it's close to to 0.9443 key support, consolidation from 0.9427 might extend further. But still, break of 0.9772 resistance is needed to confirm near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish for another decline.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that 0.9443 key support (2016 low) could be taken out firmly as down trend form 1.0342 extends. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9772 resistance holds. Current down trend could extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.9090. However, break of 0.9772 will indicate that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 again and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7932; (P) 0.7952; (R1) 0.7963; More...

AUD/USD jumps notably in early US session but it's staying well below 0.8065 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 0.8065 might extend. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.8065 will resume the medium term rise and target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8087) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.41; (P) 109.66; (R1) 109.95; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside for 108.12/26 support zone. Decisive break there will resume the whole corrective decline from 118.65. In that case, USD/JPY will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. In any case, outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 110.94 resistance holds. Nonetheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 110.94 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back towards 114.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it's uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it's a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

USD/CHF - 0.9585

Original strategy :

Buy at 0.9520, Target: 0.9620, Stop: 0.9485

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 0.9520, Target: 0.9620, Stop: 0.9485

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback has rebounded after holding above previous support at 0.9539, reckon upside would be limited to 0.9615-20 and near term downside risk remains for another test of said support, however, if our view that low has been formed at 0.9428 last week is correct, downside would be limited to 0.9520 and bring another rebound later. Above 0.9615-20 would bring test of 0.9653-55 resistance, break there would bring another rise to 0.9680 but break there is needed to add credence to this view and extend gain to resistance at 0.9698-99. 

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy dollar on further subsequent retreat. Below 0.9515-20 would risk weakness to 0.9490-00 but still reckon downside would be limited to 0.9450-60 and said support at 0.9428 should remain intact, bring another rebound later.

The EURUSD pair has moved back towards the 1.1900 level, as the U.S dollar comes under pressure from risk-off trading sentiment. Earlier, the euro fell to 1.1868, but soon found buying interest, as North Korean fears persist.

During the upcoming U.S trading session, North American markets will return after Labour Day Holiday. Investors will look to the ongoing situation in the Korean peninsula, U.S factory orders and a host of Federal Reserve speakers.

The EURUSD pair is currently trading at its daily pivot point, located at 1.1897, however, the euro remains neutral on an intraday basis, while trading below the 1.1918 level.

Going forward, a break above the 1.1930 level remains the key to further upside, with technical resistance found at 1.1960, 1.1979 and 1.2030-40.

To the downside, key technical support is located at the monthly pivot point, at 1.1884, the Friday spike low, at 1.1850, and the former weekly price low, at 1.1822.

GBP/USD - 1.2981

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the British pound has rebounded again after holding above indicated support at 1.2905 and gain to 1.2996-00 psychological level cannot be ruled out, break there is needed to retain bullishness and signal recent rise from 1.2774 has resumed and extend gain to previous resistance at 1.3032, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3055-60 (100% projection of 1.2774-1.2979 measuring from 1.2852) and reckon 1.3080 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3269-1.2774) would hold.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below 1.2940 would prolong consolidation and bring weakness to 1.2905 but break of latter level is needed to signal top has been formed, bring further fall to 1.2875-80 and possibly towards previous chart support at 1.2852 which is likely to hold from here.

The GBPUSD pair has looked past a marginally weaker United Kingdom services sector PMI reading, and moved towards the higher-end of its recent trading range.

Today's 53.2 PMI services reading has yet to dampen demand for the British pound, with the pound gaining ground against the euro, and trading around the 1.2969 level against the greenback.

The GBPUSD pair remains confined to range-bound trading conditions between the 1.2910 and 1.2990 level, however, price-action is printing bullish higher daily price high's.

Key intraday technical resistance is located at the 50-day moving average, at 1.2984, with the former weekly price high and monthly pivot point, found at 1.2990-1.2994.

Above 1.3000 level, the GBPUSD June monthly price high offers strong resistance, at 1.3030, as does the 1.3047 level.

To the downside, key trendline support is located at 1.2948, with the weekly pivot point, at 1.2936. The daily time-frame, 100-period moving average, offers critical intraday support, at 1.2920.