Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2474; (P) 1.2514; (R1) 1.2577; More....

Break of 1.2575 minor resistance suggests that correction from 1.2412 short term bottom is extending higher. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.3346 to 1.2412 at 1.2769. At this point, we'd expect upside to be limited there to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2412 will extend recent fall from 1.3793 to next key fibonacci level at 1.2048.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Fall from 1.3793 is seen as the third leg and should target 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we'd look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. However, firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.1564.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7938; (P) 0.7990; (R1) 0.8020; More...

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation below 0.8065 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Another rally is expected as long as 0.7877 support holds. Break of 0.8065 will target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335. Nonetheless, break of 0.7877 will indicate short term topping, possibly with bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7711 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1372; (P) 1.1410; (R1) 1.1435; More...

A temporary top is likely in place at 1.1454 in EUR/CHF with 4 hour MACD staying well below signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first and deeper retreat could be seen. But downside should be contained by 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.1248) and bring rise resumption. Above 1.1454 will extend recent rise from 1.0629 to 200% projection of 1.0652 to 1.0986 from 1.0830 at 1.1498. Break will target 261.8% projection at 1.1704 next. Nonetheless, sustained break of 1.1248 will indicate short term topping and bring lengthier consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, sustained break of 1.1198 key resistance confirms resumption of the long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015. In this case, EUR/CHF would eventually head back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1087 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8918; (P) 0.8940; (R1) 0.8959; More

EUR/GBP's consolidation from 0.8994 is still in progress and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 0.8828 to bring rise resumption. Whole rally from 0.8312 is still in progress and break of 0.8994 will target 0.9304 key high. There is no clear sign of up trend resumption yet. Hence, we'll be cautious on strong resistance from 0.9304 to limit upside and bring another fall. However, break of 0.8828 will turn focus back to 0.8742 support. Break there will indicate near term reversal.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it is finished yet. But in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside and bring rebound. Whole up trend from 0.6935 is expected to resume after consolidation from 0.9304 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4726; (P) 1.4781; (R1) 1.4863; More...

EUR/AUD's rise from 1.4421 continues today and reaches as high as 1.4883 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.5073 resistance. As noted before, correction from 1.5226 should have completed with three waves down to 1.4421 already. Break of 1.5037 will resume the rise from 1.3624 and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4421 at 1.5411 next. On the downside, below 1.4701 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4564 support holds.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to resume to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the fall from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, another decline will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.37; (P) 145.76; (R1) 146.13; More

GBP/JPY rebounds today but it's staying in range of 144.01/147.76. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 147.76/148.42 key resistance zone will resume larger rebound from 122.36. On the downside, break of 144.01 will extend the sideway pattern from 148.20 with another fall back to 135.58/65 support zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 122.36 is expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. In case the sideway pattern from 148.42 extends, we'd be looking for strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.87; (P) 130.23; (R1) 130.63; More...

EUR/JPY's rally resumes by taking out 130.76 and reaches as high as 131.17 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise should now target next long term fibonacci level at 134.20. On the downside, break of 129.83 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 125.80 resistance turned support holds.

Yen falls sharply in Asian session on risk appetite flows. Strong earnings from Japanese companies lifted Nikkei back above 20000 handle as the index is trading up 0.6% at the time of writing. That followed another record close in DOW overnight, at 21963.92, up 0.33%. Euro is benefiting most from the developments, in particular, with EUR/JPY finally taking out 130.76 resistance to resume recent rally. Markets will have an eye on German DAX today, which rebound by 1.1% yesterday. That mark the complete of a recent correction and if that's the case, strength in DAX would likely support the Euro further. Meanwhile, Dollar also recovers mildly today, against most except Euro as markets await ADP private employment data from US. Talking about employment, New Zealand Dollar is trading as the weakest one as dragged down by Q2 job data.

DAX could have finished pull back

DAX recover strongly after drawing support from medium term channel. It was also kept slightly above key cluster support at 11941.57, 38.2% retracement of 10402.59 to 12951.54 at 11977.84, as well as 12000 psychological level. Focus is now back on 12341.03 resistance. Break will suggest that the correction from 12951.53 has completed. And in that case, further rise would be seen back to retest 12951.54 later in the quarter. Such development would be Euro supportive.

Oil failed 50, lifting USD/CAD

Oil price is another one to watch today. WTI reached as high as 50.43 earlier this week but failed to sustain above 50 handle. It's now back below 49. The development is lifting USD/CAD through 1.2575 resistance. This signals that USD/CAD has bottomed at 1.2412 in near term after drawing support from 1.2460 key support level. As long as WTI stays above 47.32 in the current pull back, rebound in USD/CAD should be limited. But break of 47.32 in oil will possibly send USD/CAD back towards 1.3 handle in a larger scale corrective rebound.

BoJ Funo urges structural reforms

BoJ board member Yukitoshi Funo reiterated the central bank's stance that "powerful" monetary stimulus should be maintained to boost inflation, which is far below target. But he emphasized that monetary stimulus alone is not enough and called for structural reforms. He said that "japan's economy still has room to raise productivity when seen from a global perspective." And, "now is a good chance to proceed with structural reforms and growth strategies, because monetary conditions are very loose and the job market is tight." He is optimistic that a strong economy and a tightening job market will likely gradually push up wages and inflation.

Kiwi lower as employment shrank in Q2

New Zealand employment dropped -0.2% qoq in Q2, much weaker than expectation of 0.7% qoq rise. Unemployment rate dropped to 4.8%, down from 4.9%. Private sector labor cost rose 0.4% qoq, in line with consensus. The data affirmed RBNZ's stance to stand pat in the environment of global policy stimulus exit. NZD/USD dips notable today to 0.7420 and the development confirms short term topping at 0.7553 last week. But overall, there is no change in the bullish outlook. NZD/USD is now in short term consolidation and could dip lower. But downside should be contained by 0.7201 support to bring another rise. Rise from 0.6816 is seen as resuming the medium term rebound from 0.6102. Another rally is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.8835 to 0.6102 at 0.7791 next.

US ADP to highlight the day

Also released earlier today, Australia building approvals rose 10.9% mom in June. Japan monetary base rose 15.6% yoy in July. UK BRC shop price index dropped -0.4% yoy in July. Swiss will release a bunch of data today including SECO consumer confidence, SVME PMI and retail sales. UK will release construction PMI. Eurozone will release PPI. US ADP private employment will be the main focus of the day.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.87; (P) 130.23; (R1) 130.63; More...

EUR/JPY's rally resumes by taking out 130.76 and reaches as high as 131.17 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise should now target next long term fibonacci level at 134.20. On the downside, break of 129.83 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 125.80 resistance turned support holds.

Economic Indicators Update

STOCKS

Dow (21963.92, +0.33%) is moving up in line with our expectation and could move higher towards 22100-22250 in the medium term before seeing a corrective dip to 21750. Near term looks potentially bullish.

Dax (12251.29, +1.10%) rose well from the support that we have been mentioning for the last couple of days and the index has risen to 12300 as expected. The current rise may continue towards 12400-12500 before a pause is seen. There is some room on the upside for the coming sessions. .

Shanghai (3289.11, -0.11%) is trading near previous highs of 3288 and 3295 seen in Nov'16 and Apr'17 respectively. In case 3300 acts acts as a decent support, we could see a rise towards 3325-3350 in the next few sessions; else a corrective fall could start from current levels.

Nikkei (20069.88, +0.42%) continues to trade within 19700-20280 levels and unless there is a break out on either side of this range, it is difficult to get any directional clarity for the medium term. We wait for a clear directional signal with some bullish bias for the near term.

Nifty (10114.65, +0.37%) has closed near important resistance near 10115 and could possibly see some correction in the next few sessions before again trying to move up. Overall the long term uptrend is intact.

COMMODITIES

Gold (1266) is still struggling to rise above the 1270-75 regions and only a break above that may open up the higher target of 1290. Crucial supports are poised at 1260 and 1245 levels. We are not confident about the sustainability beyond 1270 regions due to short term overbought condition. In case the Support at 1245 breaks, there will be a further dip to 1230 and 1210 levels respectively.Silver (16.61) somehow manages to hold above 16.50 levels, but a close below 16.50 could open up 16.20 and 15.90 levels respectively. We might see significant fall in Silver if there will be any short term price correction in Copper.

Copper (2.87) is hovering around 2.90 levels. We might see price correction towards 2.78-80 levels due to short term overbought condition. But we will remain bullish on Copper in midterm time frame while it s trading above 2.70-75 regions.

This is the 6th consecutive week when market is anticipating a fall (-3.2M B) in weekly U.S crude oil inventory.If the anticipation of shortage will match the actual outcome (8:00 PM IST) then that could be beneficial for the ongoing bullish trend in Brent (52.63) and WTI (48.70). We will remain bullish on Brent and WTI, while they are trading above 48.70 and 45.50 levels on an weekly closing basis. But a surplus in U.S oil inventory could bring near term bearish possibilities into consideration.

Gold-WTI ratio (25.23) had broken the crucial support at 25.90-92 and came down. At the same time, Brent-WTI ratio (2.46) also had found support at 2.16 and moved higher. Both the ratios had moved in line with our expectation (dated 28th July 2017) so far.

FOREX

RBI today to determine the near term path for Rupee while BOE tomorrow and US NFP data on Friday to set the path of the majors this week.

Little change in the market for Dollar Index (93.10) and Euro (1.1803) as both remain in a minor consolidation phase at their respective extreme ends. The downside target of 92.00 for Dollar and upside target of 1.20 for Euro remains unchanged.

Dollar-Yen (110.54) is testing the resistance of 110.50-80 but even a rise above the resistance may not push it above 111.00-10. The downtrend is likely to resume by the end of the week with the downside target/support staying the same at 109.50.

Pound (1.3202) is wandering about the resistance of 1.3200 waiting for the BOE decision tomorrow. If the current pause phase stays limited to 1.3170 to the downside, the bullish momentum remains intact which may take it to 1.3330 and even 1.3420.

Aussie (0.7950) has entered a corrective phase even after the RBA held rates as expected. If the support at 0.7900-0.7875 holds, it may see a sharp bounce back above 0.80 levels. Higher targets of 0.8100-70 will be negated only on a break below 0.7875.

Dollar Rupee (64.08) closed below 64.10 ahead of the RBI policy meet conclusion today which may determine the near term path. We don't expect any upside for Dollar Rupee till the resistance of 64.25-30 holds but the downside remains open. Initial target remains unchanged at 63.90.

INTEREST RATES

The US yields have come off slightly from levels seen yesterday. The 5YR (1.80%), 10YR (2.25%) and the 30YR (2.87%) are all trading lower from previous levels of 1.83%, 2.29% and 2.90% respectively.

The UK-US 10YR (-1.04%) has moved up from -1.06% seen yesterday. There is scope of testing -0.98% in the coming sessions which could take the Pound up towards 1.33.

The UK yields have started to rise after quite some time and we could expect some more rise in the coming sessions.

The Indian 10YR GOI (6.4450%) has bounced from support near 6.40% and could move up towards 6.50-6.55% in the next few sessions. Near term looks bullish.

The day's gain was never going to set the world alight, yet, in context of the losses seen in recent months, perhaps it should be happy with what it got

Manufacturing data broadly softened in July, which dragged the headline figure down -1.5 points to 56.3 (57.8 prior). This was slightly below expectations of 56.3 yet still relatively elevated compared with China and Japan.

The heaviest decline was from new orders which dropped -1.3 pts yet this remains elevated at 60.4. Prices provided the heaviest contribution which increased by 7 pts to leave the index at 62 (55 prior). So far for July we have seen prices spike for Japan, China and Australia as commodity prices have rallied. On the face of it this spell good news for inflationary pressures, so long as the costs are passed onto manufacturer's customer's and these rising prices are also absorbed by the consumer to raise realised and expected inflation. We are a long way off from confirming such a chain of event but every trend must start somewhere.

Where the ISM manufacturing data fell slightly below consensus, Markit PMI slightly beat forecasts. The 1.3-point gain is the fastest monthly expansion in 9 months and is strong enough to suggest a trough may have been seen.

Construction spending was a disappointment at -1.3%, it's 2nd lowest reading since October and completely missed expectations of 0.4% (0.3% prior). The Core personal consumption expenditure made up for this though by beating expectations of 1.3% and remaining at 1.5%.

Whilst, overall the data was good by US standard this year, it was not enough to make a noteworthy dent on the Dollar's decline. Neither data from US or Europe convinced traders there was any urge for banks to tighten policies which saw money flow back into bonds and push yields lower.

93.15 is a pivotal area for H1 as it marks the 27th June low and sits near the 50-hour MA. Whilst a move above this resistance area may prompt a spike higher fuelled by stops triggering, price action from the low appears to be corrective show we cannot yet rule out another break to new lows whilst below the 93.53 swing high.

We see the AUDUSD is showing signs of weakness from the highs and is on the cusp of confirming a double top on H4. Price is back below the 80c level and provided a higher low overnight and a break higher for DXY assumes we may see follow-through of the bearish move on AUD.