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Markets Calm Ahead Of Busy Week

MarketPulse
  • Earnings, central banks and data galore this week;
  • EUR pops higher as unemployment falls to nine year low;
  • US data eyed as busy week gets off to a slow start.

It's been a moderately positive start to trading on Monday, with stocks in Europe squeezing out small gains which is lifting US futures ahead of the open on Wall Street.

There's going to be no shortage of catalysts this week with earnings season being accompanied by major central bank announcements and big economic data. Arguably the two most notable events will be the Bank of England decision and US jobs report, both of which will come later in the week, but there's still plenty to watch out for before then with this morning already seeing unemployment and inflation data from the eurozone and PMI data from China.

The euro was briefly boosted by the euro area data which again showed the economic recovery gaining traction as unemployment fell to its lowest level since February 2009 and core inflation creeping higher. While this will be music to the ears of policy makers at the ECB as they prepare for further reductions in asset purchases later this year, it's worth remembering the low base that the region is recovering from.

Unemployment at 9.1% is still extremely high and when you break that down by country, it becomes much higher again in some places. Core inflation is also only at 1.3% which is still well below the ECBs target and with the currency appreciating strongly this year, downward pressures here will continue to build. The central bank should therefore tread very carefully when it comes to removing stimulus, as I expect it will.

Today is a little quiet on the earnings front, with the likes of Apple and Pfizer not reporting until tomorrow. It's also quiet on the data side with pending home sales and the Chicago PMI the only numbers scheduled for release. We may therefore see traders positioning themselves ahead of the rest of the weeks major events today, with a bad jobs report on Friday delivering another blow to the possibility of another rate hike this year.

CRUDE OIL Monitoring Resistance At 50.28

Crude oil is trading higher Hourly support is given at 45.40 (24/07/2017 low). Strong resistance can be fouind at 50.28 (29/05/2017). Expected to show further consolidation before another leg higher.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be ound at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

SILVER Riding Bullish Channel

Silver is pushing higher after the bounce from hourly support given at 15.18 (10/07/2017 low). Key resistance is given at a distance at 17.75 (06/06/2017 high). The commodity continues its short-term bullish increase.

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

GOLD Riding Uptrend Channel

Gold continues to grow. Strong support is given at 1204 10/07/2017 high). Hourly resistance is given at 1271 (31/07/2017 high). Expected to show continued strengthening.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low)

BITCOIN Sideways Price Action.

Bitcoin's volatility has declined. Strong resistance can be found at 3000 (12/06/2017 high) and hourly support lies at 2403 (26/07/2017 low). Further retracement are expected. For the time being, the cryptocurrency keeps on trading between 2700 and 2800

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will consolidate above $1500. Long-term support is given at $1464 (04/05/2017 low).

EUR/CHF Consolidating Around 1.14

EUR/CHF's buying pressures are very important and is trading below 1.14. Hourly support is located at a distance at 1.0984 (13/07/2017 low). Road is wide-open for further strengthening.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low)

EUR/GBP Selling Pressures Are Weak

EUR/GBP is trading around its highest levels of the year. The pair is consolidating. Hourly support is given at a distance at 0.8742 (16/06/2017 low). Downside risks are nonetheless important.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

AUD/USD Stalling Below 0.8000.

AUD/USD's technical structure has finally not reversed. Hourly resistance is now given at 0.8066 (27/07/2017 high). Hourly support given at 0.7875 (21/07/2017 low). Expected to show continued upside pressures.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD Consolidating Below 1.2400.

USD/CAD 's bearish momentum is showing ending signals. The pair remains nonetheless in a strong bearish momentum. Hourly resistance is given at 1.2544 (26/07/2017). Expected to show further consolidation above 1.2400.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low) before bouncing back. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair should head further lower.

USD/CHF Consolidating Before A Likely Another Leg Higher

USD/CHF is pausing. Hourly support can be found at 0.9439 (21/07/2017 high). Strong resistance is given at 0.9771 (15/06/2017 high) is on target. Expected to to show further strengthening.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.