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GOLD Bearish breakout.

Gold's is trading lower towards strong support given at 1214 (09/05/2017 low). Hourly resistance can be found at 1258 (23/06/2017 high). Expected to show continued weakness.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER Strong bearish momentum.

Silver has broken support at 15.63 (27/12/2016 low). Key resistance is given at a distance at 17.75 (06/06/2017 high). The road seems wide open for further decline.

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

CRUDE OIL Profit-taking after the strong increase.

Crude oil is back to bearish again. Support is given at 42.05 (21/06/2017 low). Expected to show continued weakness.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

The US labor market posted another month of solid employment gains in June, data showed on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 222k, much more than the forecast of 179k. Meanwhile, May's print was revised up to 152k from 138k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, missing its forecast of staying unchanged, but this is still a number consistent with full employment. The disappointment was wage growth, with average hourly earnings coming in below the forecast, while last month's print was revised lower. As a result, the dollar tumbled somewhat, but quickly recovered its losses to trade more or less unchanged in the following minutes.

Overall, these data are unlikely to change much within the divided FOMC in our view, as policymakers are still faced with the conundrum of a strong labor market, but lackluster inflationary pressures. As such, we think the greenback could trade in a consolidative manner over the next couple of days, as investors await for fresh data or new signals by the Fed. The next events that could dictate the currency's forthcoming direction are Fed Chair Yellen's semi-annual testimony on Wednesday (and Thursday) and subsequently, the CPI prints for June that are due out Friday. On balance, the CPIs may be more important for investors, as they could determine which of the two FOMC camps will prevail, the hawks or the doves.

USD/JPY traded higher on Friday, breaking above the resistance (now turned into support) barrier of 113.90 (S1). The rate continues to trade above the short-term uptrend line taken from the low of the 14th of June, while on Friday, it cleared the longer-term downside resistance line taken from the peak of the 11th of January. Bearing these in mind, we would expect the pair to continue trading north and perhaps challenge the 114.40 (R1) barrier soon. A decisive break above that resistance is likely to open the way for our next obstacle of 114.90 (R2).
Solid Canadian jobs data boost the Loonie

On Friday, we got employment data for June from Canada as well. The report was much stronger than expected, with the unemployment rate surprisingly declining and the net change in employment coming in much higher than anticipated. Combined with the strong GDP for Q1 and the robust retail sales for April, another strong employment report probably added further fuel to speculation that the BoC is likely to hike rates this week.

However, despite the heightened market expectations with regards to a hike on Wednesday, we don't share that view. We do expect the Bank to hike soon, but we think this week is too early. Even though the Canadian economy is strong, inflationary pressures are still missing. The nation's core inflation rate tells the story, as it has declined for 3 consecutive months and now rests at +0.9% yoy. It would be very strange for the BoC to hike while underlying inflation is trending lower, in our view. As for the Loonie, it could continue to gain as we head into the meeting on expectations for a hike. However, if the Bank acts like we expect, CAD could reverse some of its latest gains.

USD/CAD tumbled on Friday following Canada's stellar employment report. The pair came under selling interest after it tested the psychological zone of 1.3000 (R2), to break below the support (turned into resistance) level of 1.2920 (R1). The decline was stopped at 1.2860 (R1). Given that the rate is trading below the 1.3000 (R2) zone, which acted as the lower bound of the sideways range that contained the price action since the 9th of September, we would consider the outlook to be negative. We would expect the rate to continue trading south, at least until Wednesday's BoC meeting. A clear dip below 1.2860 (S1) is likely to initially aim for our next support of 1.2820 (S2), where another break is possible to target the 1.2770 (S3) zone.

Today's highlights:

During the European day, we get Norway's CPI data for June and expectations are for both the headline and the core rates to have declined. Even though something like that could hurt NOK on the news, we don't expect any negative reaction to be massive. The Norges Bank already noted at its latest meeting that inflation is lower than expected and may continue to drift lower in the months ahead.

As for the rest of the week:

On Tuesday, the economic calendar is relatively light. On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the BoC rate decision, as we already outlined above. Meanwhile in the US, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver her semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. In the UK, employment figures for May will be in focus. On Thursday, during the Asian morning, China's trade balance for June is due out while during the European day, we get Sweden's CPI prints for June. Finally on Friday, in the US the main event will be the release of CPI and retail sales data for June.

USD/JPY

Support: 113.90 (S1), 113.45 (S2), 112.90 (S3)

Resistance: 114.40 (R1), 114.90 (R2), 115.50 (R3)

USD/CAD

Support: 1.2860 (S1), 1.2820 (S2), 1.2770 (S3)

Resistance: 1.2920 (R1), 1.3000 (R2), 1.3080 (R3)

EUR/JPY Continued increase.

EUR/JPY is back above 130 for the first time in a year and half. Hourly support can be found at 127.10 (30/06/2017). Next support is given at 122.56 (18/05/2017 low). Further upside is favored.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Testing resistance area.

EUR/GBP is testing for the third time in two months resistance area around 0.8900. Hourly support is given at 0.8719 (16/06/2017 low). Expected to show further buying pressures.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/CHF Monitoring 1.1000.

EUR/CHF is now heading towards psychological level at 1.1000. Selling pressures are important at this mark. Hourly support is located at a distance at 1.0922 (30/06/2017 low). Expected to inch higher.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

USD/CHF Weakening.

USD/CHF is pushing lower. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.9771 (09/06/2017 high). Strong resistance is given at 1.0107 (10/04/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 0.9553 (30/06/2017 low). Expected to show continued bearish pressures.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Heading lower.

USD/CAD's bearish momentum continues. Support given at 1.2913 (04/07/2017 low) has been broken. Resistance is located at 1.3014 (02/15/2017). Expected to show continued downside pressures.

In the longer term, the pair lies in a bullish channel since a year. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Strengthening.

AUD/USD's technical structure is bullish since early May despite some consolidation move. The pair should further head back towards resistance at 0.7712 (30/06/2017 high). However, a break of support at 0.7520 (09/06/2017 low) would nonetheless indicate a renewed bearish trend.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Ready for another leg higher.

EUR/USD is still consolidating and should target resistance at 1.1445 (29/06/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.1292 (28/06/2017 low). Stronger support lies at 1.1076 (18/05/2017 low).

In the longer term, the momentum is clearly negative. We favour a continued bearish bias towards parity. Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

GBP/USD Continued short-term selling pressures.

GBP/USD is still trading lower. The pair failed to monitor resistance given at 1.3046 (18/05/2017 high). The road is wide-open for further weakness.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Ready for a bullish breakout.

USD/JPY is still riding within symmetrical triangle towards resistance given at 114.37 (10/05/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 112.83 (05/07/2017 low). Stronger support is located at 108.13 (17/04/2017 low). Expected to show continued bullish pressures.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

AUD/USD has been moving in a very narrow range. The ATR for last 14 days is 48 pips and it suggest slow moving price. If the price managed to stay below 0.7645 that is the ATR projected high and W H3 camarilla, bears would have an upper hand. At this point we might see a rejection from the POC 0.7600-15 ( D H3, 38.2, inner trend line, ATR pivot) towards 0.7570 and eventually 0.7550.

The yellow metal has declined once more to the lower trend line of the long term descending channel pattern. The commodity price tested the strength of the support line already on Friday. On Monday morning the bullion continued to test the support. If it gets passed, and the pattern is broken, the bullion would retreat down to the 1,198.51 level, where the second monthly support is located at. Meanwhile, if the support line proves its strength, the commodity price might jump back up to the 1,220 mark, where the monthly S1 together with the 55 and 100- hour simple moving averages are located. In either of the cases Monday's trading session is most likely set to reveal the direction of the metal for the rest of the week.

Following the hourly surge on Friday morning, the US Dollar lost its strong upside momentum against the Yen and continued to trade with moderate gains. Contrary to expectations, the monthly R1 did not provide enough resistance to hinder or halt the pair. Thus, the rate has approached a two-month high at 114.34, suggesting that this level could finally reverse the Greenback to the downside. Technical oscillators may likewise reach the overbought area in this session, adding some ground to the aforementioned scenario. Nevertheless, there is still some upside potential until the upper channel boundary circa 114.60. In case bears are to prevail, the 55– or 100-hour SMAs located at 113.60 and 113.42 on Monday morning may be considered the bottom limit today.

Despite technical indicators being bullish on Friday morning, GBP/USD plunged 98 pips within couple of hours mid-session. The most significant downfall resulted from weak UK data released at 0830GMT. This move pushed technical indicators in the strongly bullish and oversold territory. The rate, however, was halted at the 55- day SMA near the 1.2875 mark prior to making a U-turn. The Pound has started to recover some losses and is expected to continue doing so in this trading session, as the pair has formed a minor falling wedge that should lead it to the upper boundary of this pattern circa 1.2930. The Sterling may likewise trade sideways, given the lack of strong market movers scheduled for today. By and large, a possible trading range is likely to be 1.2883/1.2930.

The common European currency bounced off a long term descending channel’s resistance line against the US Dollar. As a result of the following decline the pair has recently passed the support of a medium term ascending channel. However, the decline might not continue. The reason for that is the fact that the area from 1.1395 to 1.1374 is full of support levels. All of the hourly SMAs, which are used by Dukascopy Bank analysts are located in that region. In addition, the weekly PP is stationed at 1.1388 mark together with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. Due to that reason it can be expected that the currency pair will find support and not continue the decline right away. However, in accordance with the larger scale pattern the Euro should depreciate against the US Dollar