Sample Category Title

The euro has posted slight gains in the Wednesday session, adding to sharp gains on Tuesday. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1370. On the release front, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak again before the ECB Forum of Central Bankers. Will Draghi perform an encore and push the euro even higher? In the US, today's key release is Pending Home Sales, which is expected to gain 0.9%. On Thursday, Germany releases Preliminary CPI and the US will publish Final GDP and unemployment claims.

The euro sparkled on Tuesday, jumping 1.8%. EUR/USD is closing in on the 1.14 line, and hit a high of 1.1388 earlier in the day, its highest level in two months. The currency jumped as investors gave a thumbs up to Mario Draghi, who addressed the ECB Forum. Draghi acknowledged that economic indicators were showing a broadening recovery in the eurozone, and put a positive spin on inflation, as he noted that 'deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones'. Draghi defended the bank's loose accommodative policy, saying that it had pushed inflation higher, but stimulus was needed until inflation becomes 'durable and self-sustaining'. Draghi's message to the markets and his critics is that 'we're on the right path, but please show some patience'. Germany, the eurozone's largest economy, wants to see a tighter policy, which is a better fit for the vibrant German economy. Clearly however, the ECB under Draghi's stewardship has no intentions of altering current policy until inflation moves closer to the ECB's target of 2 percent.

Investors are casting a nervous glance at Thursday, as the US releases Final GDP for the first quarter. Preliminary GDP, which was released in May, came in at 1.2%, and this is the same estimate for the upcoming GDP report. Recent economic data has been softer than expected, notably construction and manufacturing reports. US durable goods releases were weak in May. Core Durable Goods broke a streak of two straight declines, but the weak gain of 0.1% missed expectations. Durable Goods declined 1.1%, its sharpest decline since June 2016. The slowdown in orders of business equipment could weigh on second quarter growth. Last week, it was the turn of construction numbers to disappoint, as Housing Starts and Building Permits both missed expectations. Consumer spending has also been softer than expected, and if Final GDP falls short of the modest estimate of 1.2%, the dollar could respond with losses.

• Yellen reiterates desire to gradually raise interest rates;
• EUR builds on gains ahead of Draghi’s appearance at event on central banking in Portugal;
• Carney leads fight against rate hikes at BoE.

Focus will once again be on the central banks on Wednesday, with heads from a number of them scheduled to take part at an event on central banking in Portugal.

The one notable absence will be Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who did speak on Tuesday and reiterated the need for gradual rate hikes alongside a gradual and predictable shrinking of the balance sheet. Yellen did also tempt fate, claiming that she doesn’t believe another financial crisis will occur in our lifetime, a statement that will hopefully not prove to be famous last words for the Fed Chair.

We will hear from a number of other central bank heads today though, many of whom are leading central banks that appear to be undergoing a hawkish shift at the moment. The two that stand out in particular are Mario Draghi and Mark Carney of the ECB and Bank of England, respectively. Both appear, at least, to be among the more dovish voters on their committees and leading the resistance to premature tightening of monetary policy.

The euro jumped higher yesterday and is building on those gains today after Mario Draghi acknowledged the strengthening and broadening recovery in the region, a sign that he’s possibly ready to reluctantly back further reductions in stimulus. It’s clear that Draghi favours maintaining a very accommodative stance but the consensus within the committee is clearly shifting. With the euro now above 1.13 against the dollar, there is scope for further upside in the coming weeks, with 1.15-1.16 possibly on the cards. The next test though should come around 1.14.

The same shift is being seen at the BoE where Carney was among the five policy makers on the eight person committee that voted to keep interest rates unchanged. As some policy makers growing increasingly wary about the inflation data – with annual CPI having reached 2.9% last month – Carney faces a tough task of convincing his colleagues to look though the currency effects and take into consideration the temporary nature of the moves and the economic uncertainty. I expect the BoE Governor to drive home this message today and should we see any shift, similar to that seen from Draghi, it could signal an acceptance of defeat from Carney and an impending rate hike. Yesterday’s increase in the counter-cyclical capital buffer may have bought Carney a little more time.

Spot Gold ticked higher and posted marginally higher high at $1254 on Wednesday, signaling fresh upside after Tuesday's strong upside rejection at $1253. The price emerged above daily cloud after Tuesday's rally stalled and closed within the cloud. Eventual close above the cloud will be bullish signal for extension towards target and strong barrier at $1258 (double upside rejection/55SMA/Fibo 38.2% of $1296/$1236 descend. Firm break here would generate strong bullish signal for further correction of $1296/$1236 fall. Otherwise, failure to clear $1258 pivot would generate initial signal of recovery rally stall. Converged 10/100SMA's offer solid support at $1249, followed by daily cloud (spanned between $1247/45), with break below daily cloud to risk further weakness.

Res: 1254, 1258, 1261, 1266
Sup: 1249, 1247, 1245, 1241

WTI oil is probing again above $44.00 level after falling to $43.55 after crude inventories miss on Tuesday.

American Petroleum Institute report, released on Tuesday, showed builds of 851.000 barrels in crude inventories, against forecasted draw of 2.6 million barrels that revived persisting concerns about oversupply.

Near-term action remains in green and supported by 10SMA ($43.62) for now, following strong four-day recovery rally from fresh multi-month low at $42.04 (21 June low) which was so far capped by Fibo 23.6% of $51.98/$42.04 descend.

Scope exists for further recovery towards next strong barrier at $45.04 (19 June lower top, reinforced by falling 20SMA) as slow stochastic is heading north and showing space for further upside.

However, corrective action is seen limited on bearish technicals and strong bearish sentiment regarding global supply glut, with $45.04 barrier expected to ideally cap.

All eyes are turned towards weekly crude stocks data from Energy Information Administration for stronger signals. Expectations show a draw of 2.5 million barrels, which is slightly above previous week's 2.4 million barrels draw and will be supportive for oil prices on release near/above forecast.

Conversely, lower than expected numbers on Wednesday or even worse scenario of build in crude inventories, would send oil prices lower and risk return to $42.04 low.

Res: 44.17, 44.42, 45.04, 45.59
Sup: 43.62, 43.31, 42.62, 42.04

GOLD Strengthening.

Gold 's medium-term momentum is positive. Hourly support is located at 1236 (26/06/2017 low). Stronger support is given at 1214 (09/05/2017 low). Expected to show continued upside pressures.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER Bullish consolidation with medium-term bearish move.

Silver's selling pressures are strong despite ongoing bullish consolidation. Closest support is given at 16.29 (26/06/2017 low). Strong support is given at 16.06 (09/05/2017 low). Key resistance is given at a distance at 17.75 (06/06/2017 high). The road seems wide open for further decline.

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009)

CRUDE OIL Continued bullish consolidation.

Crude Oil is now consolidating higher since the commodity hit 11-month low. Support is given at 42.05 (21/06/2017 low). Expected to show renewed weakness.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/JPY Bullish breakout.

EUR/JPY has surged and broke hourly resistance at 125.82 (16/05/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 122.56 (18/05/2017 low). Major support is given at 114.90 (18/04/2017 low).

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Bullish.

EUR/GBP has finally broken resistance given at 0.8866 (12/06/2017 high). Other support can be found at 0.8652 (08/06/2017 low). Expected to show further consolidation.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/CHF Breaking downtrend channel.

EUR/CHF's short-term bullish pressures are definitely on. The pair is riding higher within downtrend channel. Hourly support is located at a distance at 1.0792 (03/05/2017 low).

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

USD/CHF Strong bearish breakout.

USD/CHF is pushing lower. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.9771 (09/06/2017 high). Strong resistance is given at 1.0107 (10/04/2017 high). Hourly support given at 0.9614 (06/06/2017 low) has been broken. Expected to show continued bearish pressures.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Continued weakness.

USD/CAD is back into bearish mode. Hourly support given at 1.3165 (14/06/2017 high) has been broken. Expected to show continued weakness towards strong support given at 1.3010 (16/02/2017 low).

In the longer term, the pair lies in a bullish channel since a year. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Sideways price action around 0.7600,

AUD/USD 's technical structure is positive since early May. Yet, in the short-term there will likely be renewed bearish pressures towards support given at 0.7520 (09/06/2017 low)

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Bullish breakout

EUR/USD is trading higher. The pair is trading has broken strong resistance given at 1.1300 (09/11/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.1076 (18/05/2017 low). Stronger support lies at 1.0842 (11/05/2017 low). Expected to consolidate below 1.1400.

In the longer term, the momentum is clearly negative. We favour a continued bearish bias towards parity. Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

GBP/USD Ready for a decline.

GBP/USD has stopped its rebound. Hourly support is given at 1.2589 (21/06/2017 low). Hourly resistance at 1.2818 (14/06/2017 high) has been broken. Expected to show further renewed selling pressures.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Breaking resistance at 112.13.

USD/JPY has failed to monitor resistance given at 112.13 (24/05/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 110.65 (16/06/2017 low). Stronger support is located at 108.13 (17/04/2017 low). Expected to show continued pressures.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

The EUR/USD has behaved exactly as I analysed 8 days ago making it’s swing from the POC zone towards 1.1400. Additionally, the EU surged to its highest in the last year after Mario Draghi, who spoke at the ECB forum, surprised markets by signaling that stimulus tapering may be closer than the market anticipated. Draghi highlighted a recovering euro zone economy that “the threat of deflation is gone and reflationary forces are at play”.

At this point we can see that EUR/USD is rejecting the POC countertrend zone (ATR high, D H3, psychological 1.1400 resistance) and it’s coupled with ECS MACD divergence. It tells us that the zone 1.1390-1.1405 could reject the price on subsequent retests. The rejection should target the POC (trend) zone 1.1280-1.1300 (D L3, W H5, 50.0 fib, bullish order block), but also pay attention to 1.1336 that stands as 23.6 fib which is important is strong trends. A 4h close above 1.1430 will possibly open the way towards 1.1475-1.1500.

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1351

Yesterday's break through 1.1295 peak signals a renewal of the uptrend, towards 1.1430 dynamic projection. Key support lies at 1.1300.

USD/JPY

Current level - 112.16

The intraday bias is positive above 112.00 minor support, for a test of 113.00 area. Crucial on the downside is 111.30.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.2814

The recent test of 1.2830 area should provoke an intraday slide towards 1.2760 minor support area.