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The Euro fell across the board after ECB said that markets misread the comments from President Draghi on Tuesday which sent the single currency to one-year high. Draghi intended to prepare markets for decision on stimulus later this year but not making firm commitment as markets understood his message. The Euro fell to session low at 1.1291 after hitting fresh one-year high against the greenback at 1.1388 earlier today, with dip being contained by 4-hr Tenkan-sen. The price bounced quickly above 1.1300 handle which now acts as strong support, averting immediate danger seen on sustained break below 1.1300 support. The move is for now seen as extended consolidation before fresh extension higher and attack at next targets at 1.1414/28, with daily close above 1.1300 needed to confirm scenario. However, overbought slow stochastic on daily chart warns of deeper correction which may extend towards 1.1250 (converged ascending daily Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen lines) possibly to 1.1215 (20SMA) in extension, on close below 1.1300 handle. Shape of today's daily candle after closing will be also in focus for further signals.

Res: 1.1388; 1.1400; 1.1414; 1.1428
Sup: 1.1320; 1.1391; 1.1250; 1.1215

USD/CAD - 1.3088

 
Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway for headway to 1.4700

Trend:  Near term down

 
Original strategy       :

Sold at 1.3295, met target at 1.3130

Position: - Short at 1.3295

Target:  - 1.3130

Stop: -

 
New strategy             :

Sell at 1.3170, Target: 1.3020, Stop: 1.3230

Position: - Short at 1.3295

Target:  - 1.3130

Stop:- 1.3265

Current anticipated selloff has justified our bearish view for recent decline to resume and our short position entered at 1.3295 met indicated downside target at 1.3130 (with 165 points profit), as price has remained under pressure, adding credence to our downside bias for the decline from 1.3794 top to extend further fall to 1.3020-30, then test of psychological support at 1.3000, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.2940-50 today, risk from there has increased for a rebound later.

As we have taken profit on our short position entered at 1.3295, would not chase this fall here and we are looking to reinstate short on recovery as previous support at 1.3165 should turn into resistance and limit upside. Above 1.3210-15 would defer and risk rebound to 1.3260-65 but only break there would abort and signal a temporary low is formed instead, then test of resistance at 1.3308 would follow.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8800; (P) 0.8831; (R1) 0.8879; More...

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8879 earlier today but failed to sustain above 0.8851 resistance and retreated sharply again. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rise is still expected as long as 0.8718 support holds. Break of 0.8879 and sustained trading above 0.8851 will pave the way to retest 0.9304 high. However, break of 0.8718 support will now indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 0.8639 support and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. The leg from 0.9304 should have completed after testing 0.8332 structural support. But it's too early to say that larger rise from 0.6935 is resuming. Rejection from 0.9304 will extend the consolidation with another falling leg. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.9304 will target 0.9799 (2008 high). In case of another decline, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.53; (P) 143.36; (R1) 144.78; More....

GBP/JPY surges to as high as 145.29 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside for 148.09/42 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume whole rebound from 122.36 for key fibonacci level at 150.43. On the downside, below 143.256 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 148.42 are viewed as a sideway pattern. And medium term rally from 122.36 is expected to resume later. Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. In case of another fall, we'd bee looking for strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.58; (P) 126.52; (R1) 128.32; More...

EUR/JPY retreats after hitting 127.84. A temporary top is likely formed and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Downside of consolidation should be contained by 124.64 support to bring another rally. Above 127.84 will extend the rise from 114.84 to 61.8% projection of 114.84 to 125.80 from 122.39 at 129.16 first. That's also close to medium term projection level at 129.89.

In the bigger picture, the break of 126.09 support turned resistance should have confirmed completion of down trend form 149.76 (2014 high), at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rise from 109.03 should target 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89 first. Break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 and above. Medium term outlook will now remain bullish as long as 122.39 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3143; (P) 1.3202; (R1) 1.3256; More....

USD/CAD's fall extends to as low as 1.3075 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2968 cluster support, 61.8% retracement of 1.2460 to 1.3793 at 1.2969. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view that whole corrective rise from 1.2460 has completed at 1.3793. On the upside, above 1.3207 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 1.3346 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. Rise from 1.2460 is seen as the second leg and has completed at 1.3793, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. Break of 1.3222 should now indicate the start of the third leg while further break of 1.2968 should confirm. In that case, USD/CAD should decline through 1.2460 support to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.71; (P) 112.09; (R1) 112.71; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 108.81 is in progress for channel resistance (now at 112.89). Sustained break there will suggest that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, break of 110.94 support will argue that rebound from 108.81 has completed and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it's completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9552; (P) 0.9643; (R1) 0.9693; More.....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Current decline is part of the whole fall from 1.0342 and should target 0.9548 support and below. We'd start to look for bottoming signal again as it approaches 0.9443 key support level. On the upside, above 0.9646 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But still, break of 0.9770 resistance is ended to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still bounded in medium term range of 0.9443/1.0342 for the moment. Consolidative trading would likely continue and medium term outlook remains neutral. Break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. Meanwhile, downside attempts should be contained by 0.9443 key support level. However, sustained break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.9 handle.

USD/CHF - 0.9598

Original strategy :

Sell at 0.9660, Target: 0.9550, Stop: 0.9695

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 0.9645, Target: 0.9545, Stop: 0.9680

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The greenback has remained under pressure after yesterday’s selloff below previous chart support at 0.9613, adding credence to our bearish view that the decline from 0.9771 top is still in progress and downside bias remains for further weakness towards 0.9550, however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.9525-30 (50% projection of 1.10100-0.9613 measuring from 0.9771) and 0.9500 should hold, price should stay above 0.9470 (61.8% projection), bring rebound later. 

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and we are looking to sell dollar on recovery as previous support at 0.9676 should turn into resistance and limit dollar’s upside, bring another decline. Above another previous support at 0.9692 would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 0.9715-20 but only break of resistance at 0.9738-43 would signal low is formed. 

GBP/USD - 1.2845

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2780, Target: 1.2880, Stop: 1.2745

Position : - 

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at market level, Target: 1.2945, Stop: 1.2810

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has rebounded again after finding renewed buying interest just below 1.2800 level, suggesting recent upmove from 1.2589 low is still in progress and may extend further gain to 1.2915-20 (1.236 times projection of 1.2589-1.2760 measuring from 1.2706), then towards 1.2945-50, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.2978-83 (previous resistance and 1.618 times projection) and price should falter below psychological resistance at 1.3000, bring retreat later. 

In view of this, we would buy cable here and exit on such rise. Below 1.2794 support would abort and signal an intra-day top is formed instead, risk weakness to 1.2760 (previous resistance turned support), then 1.2740 but price should stay well above 1.2706 support,.