Sample Category Title

AUD/USD     –  0.7599




AUD/USD – Wave 5 of C and (B) has possibly ended at 1.1081




Although aussie found support at 0.7535 and staged a strong rebound, break of resistance at 0.7636 is needed to signal the rise from 0.7329 has resumed and extend further gain to resistance at 0.7680 but a daily close above there is needed to add credence to our view that the fall from 0.7750 has ended at 0.7329, then further gain towards said resistance at 0.7750 would follow but this level is likely to hold on first testing.


We are keeping our count that top has been formed at 1.1081 (wave 5 of V) and major correction (A-B-C-X-A-B-C) has commenced, indicated downside targets at 0.7945 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 0.6007-1.1081) and 0.7750 had been met and downside bias is seen for further weakness to 0.6800, then 0.6700 but reckon 0.6500 would hold from here.



Our preferred count is that the rally from 0.6007 to 0.7270 (7 Jan 2009) is marked as wave A, the retreat to 0.6248 (2 Feb 2009) is wave B and the subsequent upmove is labeled as wave C with wave (iii) and wave (iv) ended at 0.8265 and 0.7700 respectively and wave (v) as well as 3 ended at 0.9407, then wave 4 ended at 0.8066 (instead of 0.8578). The wave 5 has met our indicated projection target of 1.1060 and could ended at 1.1081, this level is now treated as the peak of wave (C) as well as larger degree wave B, hence major fall in wave C has commenced, our initial downside target at psychological support at 0.7000 has just been met and further weakness to 0.6500 would be seen later.



On the downside, if said resistance at 0.7636 continues to hold, then further consolidation would take place and another corrective fall to 0.7535 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 0.7470 would limit downside and bring another rise later. Only below support at 0.7415 would abort and suggest top is possibly formed, bring weakness towards said strong support at 0.7372 which is likely to hold from here. Looking ahead, a break below this support is needed to signal the rebound from 0.7329 has ended and revive bearishness for retest of this level later.   



Recommendation: Buy at 0.7470 for 0.7670 with stop below 0.7370.



Our alternate count on the daily chart treated the top formed in 2008 at 0.9851 could be a larger degree wave I and was followed by a deep and sharp correction in wave II to 0.6007 and wave III is unfolding from there.

The long-term uptrend started from 0.4775 (2 Apr 2001) with an impulsive structure. Wave I is labeled as 0.4775 to 0.9851 (15 Jul 2008), wave II has ended at 0.6007 (Oct 2008) and wave III is still in progress which may extend further gain to 1.1265.

EURUSD

The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday broke above 1.1285 key resistance, topped at 1.1349 and hit 1.1355 earlier today in Asian session. This fact ends the bearish correction phase. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.1425 area. Immediate support is seen around 1.1305 – 1.1285. A clear break back below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stay above 1.1080 key support I remain bullish and any downside pullback should be seen as a good opportunity to buy. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 1.1425 would expose 1.1615 region.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.2859 but closed a little bit lower at 1.2812. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.2900 area or higher. However, we have a bearish pin bar as you can see on my H4 chart below, suggest a potential bearish view. It’s better to wait for a clear break above 1.2859 to buy this pair, targeting 1.3000 – 1.3050 region. Immediate support is seen around 1.2775. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but would give further confirmation to the bearish pin bar scenario testing 1.2700 region. Overall I remain neutral.

USDJPY

The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday bottomed at 111.46 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 112.34. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 113.00 region. Immediate support is seen around 111.78/45 area. A clear break back below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stay above 110.65 price is still in a bullish phase. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 113.00 would expose 114.30 region. Overall I remain neutral.

USDCHF

The USDCHF had a strong bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 0.9592. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 0.9550 – 0.9500 region. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9615. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9675 but as long as stay below 0.9765 I remain bearish and any upside pullback should be seen as a good opportunity to sell.

GBP/USD – 1.2817

Recent wave: Wave V of larger degree wave (III) has ended at 1.1986 and major correction has commenced from there for gain to 1.3000 and 1.3140-50

Trend: Near term down

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2660, Target: 1.2810, Stop: 1.2600

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop: -

New strategy :

Buy at 1.2760, Target: 1.2910, Stop: 1.2700

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

As sterling has eased after surging to 1.2861, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.2785-90 is likely, however, reckon previous resistance at 1.2760 would turn into support and limit cable’s downside, bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.2861 would extend the rise from 1.2589 low for at least a strong retracement of recent entire decline from 1.3048 to 1.2900 and possibly towards 1.2950.

Our preferred count on the daily chart is that cable's rebound from 1.3500 (wave (A) trough) is unfolding as a wave (B) with A ended at 1.7043, followed by triangle wave B and wave C as well as wave (B) has ended at 1.7192, the subsequent selloff is the larger degree wave (C) which is still unfolding with minor wave (III) of larger degree wave 3 ended at 1.1986, hence wave (IV) correction is in progress which could either be a triangle wave (IV) of a complex formation but upside should be limited to 1.3500 and price should falter well below 1.4000, bring another decline in wave (V) of 3 for weakness to 1.1500, then 1.1200.

On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 1.2760 (previous resistance turned support) and bring such a rise. Below support at 1.2706 would abort and signal top is formed instead, risk further fall to 1.2675 and then towards support at 1.2640 which is likely to hold from here.

In a quiet data day for many Asian countries, the forex market continued to ride on yesterday's wave of several key events and speeches during the Asian trading session. The euro continued to build on its positive momentum against the dollar, following European Central Bank President's bullish take on the eurozone economy. The dollar had a setback against the yen amid the postponed voting on the healthcare bill in the US Senate.

The euro maintained its upward trend against the dollar, rising to the highest level in 10 months on the speech by ECB President Mario Draghi. His view that 'Deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones' has helped euro/dollar rise 0.40%, to last trade at 1.1383. Stronger than expected French consumer confidence might have also helped the euro. At a 108, the confidence in June rose above the estimated level of 103 and above May's 103. In early European session, the markets will be monitoring the release of Italian core inflation for June.

As the euro was consolidating gains, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of peers, was down 0.18%, at one point hitting 96.165, its lowest intraday-quote since the pre-election period in November of last year.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen offered little support for the dollar during her speech last night. She said, 'it will be appropriate to raise interest rates very gradually', though she tried to sidestep the topic of US monetary policy. Additionally, the dollar weakened against the yen during the Asian session following the news that the voting on the US healthcare bill was postponed in the Senate. Dollar/yen was last flat on the day, trading at 112.33. US pending home sales for May will be released later in the day.

Sterling has retraced some of yesterday's gains against the dollar during the Asian trading session. Pound/dollar last traded at 1.2796.

Looking at commodities, WTI oil futures (August 2017 contract) is up slightly today, last trading at $43.87 a barrel. However, it has been pressured after a report of rising US inventories, underpinning a major concern that a three-year supply glut is far from over.

Gold has continued to rise during the Asian session, last trading at $1250.43 an ounce.

The European and the US sessions will also be dominated by another set of monetary policy speeches. ECB President and the governors of Bank of England, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan are all expected to speak later in the day during a central bank conference in Portugal.

The pair remains firm following strong rally in past two days that eventually broke above daily cloud and generated another strong bullish signal on Tuesday's close above 112.24 (Fibo 61.8% of 114.36/108.80 descend. Consolidation below Tuesday's fresh nearly six-weeks high at 112.46 is so far holding above 112.00 handle, keeping intact more significant daily cloud (currently spanned between 111.82/65 and reinforced by 100SMA) which should ideally contain dips ahead of fresh push higher, as bulls eye target at 113.05 (Fibo 76.4% of 114.36/108.80).

Res: 112.24, 112.46, 113.05, 113.35
Sup: 112.00, 111.82, 111.65, 111.46

Cable is consolidating around 1.2800 handle in early Wednesday's trading after strong rally on Tuesday, dragged by rallying Euro and weaker dollar, hit target at 1.2861, provided by top of thick daily cloud.

However, near-term sentiment has improved and sidelined persisting Brexit concerns that open way for further advance.

Close above cracked pivotal barriers at 1.2828/37 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.2977/1.2588 downleg / 55SMA) is needed to confirm bullish stance for renewed attack and break above daily cloud.

Extended consolidation between 20SMA (1.2785) and 55SMA (1.2837) could be expected, with stronger dips expected to find support above 10SMA (1.2732).

Return below Tuesday's low at 1.2715 would be seen as strong bearish signal.

Res: 1.2837, 1.2861, 1.2885, 1.2920
Sup: 1.2785, 1.2756, 1.2732, 1.2715

GBP/JPY - 143.35

Recent wave: Medium term low formed at 120.50 and (A)-(B)-(C) major correction has commenced with (A) leg ended at 148.45, hence wave (B) is unfolding for retreat to 131.00-10.

Trend: Near term down

Original strategy:

Buy at 141.30, Target: 143.30, Stop: 140.70

Position: -
Target: -
Stop: -

New strategy :

Buy at 142.60, Target: 144.50, Stop: 142.00

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

As sterling has retreated after surging to 144.20 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 143.00 is likely, however, reckon previous resistance at 142.50 would turn into support and limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 144.20 would extend the erratic rise from 138.70 low to 144.90-00 and possibly towards resistance at 145.45 later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy sterling on subsequent pullback as previous resistance at 142.50 should limit downside and bring another rise. Below 142.00 support would defer and suggest top is formed instead, risk weakness towards another previous support at 141.35 first.

Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.


Because of yesterday's sharp and strong price activity we changed our primary look and are now looking at a bullish impulse being made, with price specifically trading in blue wave 5. Ideally blue wave 5 will unfold a five wave development within itself, before slowing down for a correction.

EURUSD, 4H

EUR/JPY - 127.17

Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy:

Buy at 125.00, Target: 127.00, Stop: 124.40

Position: -
Target: -
Stop: -

New strategy :

Buy at 126.00, Target: 128.00, Stop: 125.40

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

Yesterday’s rally after breaking above previous resistance at 125.82 adds credence to our bullish count for a resumption of recent upmove and upside bias remains for medium term rise to extend further gain to 128.00-10, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 128.50-60 and reckon 129.00-10 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat later. 

In view of this, we are looking to reinstate long on pullback as said resistance resistance at 125.82 should turn into support and limit downside, bring another upmove. Below 125.40-50 would defer and risk weakness to 124.65-75 but break there is needed to signal top is formed instead, bring correction of recent upmove to 124.00-10, however, support at 123.66 should remain intact. 

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i - 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii - 97.03, wave iv - 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).

AUD/USD – 0.7590

Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy :

Bought at 0.7595, Target: 0.7745, Stop: 0.7555

Position: - Long at 0.7595
Target:  - 0.7745
Stop: - 0.7555

New strategy :

Hold long entered at 0.7595, Target: 0.7745, Stop: 0.7555

Position: - Long at 0.7595
Target:  - 0.7745
Stop:- 0.7555

As aussie has retreated after faltering below resistance at 0.7625, suggesting further consolidation would be seen, however, as long as minor support at 0.7558 holds, mild upside bias remains for another rebound, above said resistance at 0.7625 would bring a retest of indicated resistance at 0.7636, break there would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend the rise from 0.7329 towards previous resistance at 0.7680 but loss of momentum should limit upside to chart resistance at 0.7750 and price should falter below 0.7785-90.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 0.7595. Only below said support at 0.7535 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, bring correction to 0.7515-20, break there would provide confirmation, then correction to 0.7490-95 and possibly towards support at 0.7457 would be seen later. 

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.