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US goods exports rose 6.1% yoy to USD 176.4B in November. Goods imports rose 9.6% yoy to USD 279.2B. Trade deficit widened from October's USD -98.3B to USD 102.9B. larger than expectation of USD -100.9B.

Wholesale inventories fell -0.2% mom to USD 901.6B. Retail inventories rose 0.3% mom to USD 827.5B.

Full US good trade balance release here.

JP225, Daily

In the Daily timeframe, JP225 has formed an ascending triangle pattern, and the price is testing the upper boundary. Parabolic SAR indicates the beginning of the upside, which makes it possible to expect a rise.

• It is possible to consider buying JP225 on consolidation above 40000 and the nearest fractal with a target to 41200 and further to 42500;

USDCHF, H4

USDCHF navigates within a reversed head and shoulders patter and aims to test the 0.9030 resistance.

• The pattern is bullish, however, the MACD shows a bearish divergence, giving a signs of further decline for the asset which gives us mixed sentiment.
• If the price breaks above the 0.9030 it may skyrocket the USDCHF to 0.9200.
  However, failing of surpassing the resistance, will trigger a decline toward 0.8920.

The Japanese yen remains under pressure, trading near a five-month low against the US dollar. This trend is primarily driven by differences in monetary policy approaches.

On one side, the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, signalling a gradual slowing of monetary easing in 2025.

On the other, the Bank of Japan continues its cautious approach to policy tightening, as confirmed by a Reuters report published today. Although Japan’s Finance Minister issued warnings this week about potential market interventions, these statements have had little immediate impact.

According to technical analysis of the USD/JPY chart, the pair is trending within a well-defined upward channel (marked in blue) with the following notable developments:

→ In September, the psychological level of 140 yen per dollar served as strong support for bulls, while in December, this shifted to 150 yen per dollar (as indicated by arrows).

→ Since September, price movements have established a steeper upward channel (highlighted in purple).

→ The pair has now reached the median line of the longer-term blue channel, suggesting a potential for more stable trading. This stability may also be supported by reduced trading activity during the holiday season.

The current price action mirrors the conditions seen in summer 2024, when the pair steadily rose toward the critical level of 160 yen per dollar. As we enter early 2025, bulls may once again test this key threshold, seeking to push the pair higher.

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• USD/JPY extends uptrend to 5-month highs, reaches 158.00.
• But positive momentum may be waning.

USD/JPY crossed above the 158.00 mark on Thursday for the first time since July, but the price is trading slightly below that significant level on Friday. The RSI is reflecting the weaker upside momentum as it appears to be plateauing just below the 70 overbought area. But the MACD continues to climb higher and remains well above its red signal line.

The bulls would need to successfully overcome the resistance in the 158.00 region if the upside momentum is to strengthen or even last. A break above it would bring into focus the psychologically important 160.00 milestone, and an even more crucial level awaits at 162.00, where prices failed to breach it in early July. Nevertheless, rising above 162.00 would reinforce the pair’s long-term bullish outlook.

However, if the 158.00 resistance proves difficult to crack and the price reverses lower, there’s likely to be immediate support around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the July-September downtrend at 157.15. A drop below it would bring into scope the 155.00 level, which acted as strong support during May and June. Further down, the 61.8% Fibonacci is another strong obstacle for the bears as it is being fortified by the 20- and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in the 153.40 region.

Should the losses stretch all the way until the December low of 148.63, the bullish structure would come into question, at least in the medium term.

In brief, USDJPY faces a potentially tough battle at 158.00 and surpassing it is essential to maintaining the current bullish phase. Failure to do so would risk shifting the medium-term picture to a more neutral one.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 197.31; (P) 197.66; (R1) 198.30; More...

GBP/JPY is staying in range below 198.93 and intraday bias stays neutral. As noted before, corrective pattern from 180.00 is extending with another rising leg. Further rise is expected as long as 194.04 support holds. On the upside, above 1999.79 will will target channel resistance (now at 203.58).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.77; (P) 164.26; (R1) 165.20; More...

EUR/JPY's rally from 156.16 continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. As noted before, corrective from 154.04 is extending with another rising leg. Further rise should be seen to 166.67 resistance next. On the downside, below 163.01 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8293; (P) 0.8309; (R1) 0.8337; More...

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 0.8326 resistance will confirm short term bottoming at 0.8221, ahead of 0.8201 key support, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.8446 structural resistance next.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on whether 0.8201 key support (2022 low) is strong enough to complete the whole down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). In any case, medium term outlook will be neutral at best until decisive break of 0.8624 key resistance. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6673; (P) 1.6714; (R1) 1.6796; More...

EUR/AUD's rally from 1.5963 resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rally should be seen to retest 1.7180 high next. On the downside, below 1.6630 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is holding on to 1.5996 key support despite brief breach. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5995 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9352; (P) 0.9367; (R1) 0.9382; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Corrective rebound from 0.9204 could have completed at 0.9417. Another fall is in favor and below 0.9284 will target 0.9254 support first. Break there will bring retest of 0.9204 low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is probably in place at 0.9204. More consolidations would be seen above there with risk of stronger rebound to 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9481 holds and another fall through 0.9204 to resume larger down trend is in favor.