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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.15% against the JPY and closed at 111.19 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 110.35, with the USD trading 0.76% lower against the JPY from Friday’s close.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ), in its summary of opinions report from its March meeting, indicated that easy monetary policy will be in place for some time as consumer price growth is still distant from the central bank’s 2% inflation target.

The pair is expected to find support at 109.89, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.44. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.14, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.94.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.21% against the CHF and closed at 0.9911 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9878, with the USD trading 0.33% lower against the CHF from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9848, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9817. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9934, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9989.

Amid a lack of economic releases in Switzerland today, trading trend in the CHF is expected to be determined by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.17% against the CAD and closed at 1.3377 on Friday.

The Canadian Dollar lost ground, after Canada's consumer price index (CPI) rose less-than-anticipated by 2.0% on an annual basis in February, compared to market expectations for an advance of 2.1%. The CPI had climbed 2.1% in the prior month. Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.2% in

February, meeting market expectations and after recording a gain of 0.9% in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3331, with the USD trading 0.34% lower against the CAD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3307, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3282. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3370, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3408.

Moving ahead, market participants will focus on the Bank of Canada's business outlook survey report, slated to release later in the day.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.72; (P) 119.98; (R1) 120.45; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 119.31 will bring deeper fall towards 118.23 low. But we'd expect strong support from 118.45 key cluster support level (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 120.81 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 124.08 high. Overall, price actions from 124.08 are developing into a consolidative pattern and upside breakout is expected later.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that medium term rise from 109.20 is still in progress. Focus is on 126.09 key resistance level. Sustained break will confirm completion of the whole decline from 149.76. And rise from 109.20 is of the same degree as the fall from 149.76. In such case, further rally would be seen to 104.04 resistance and possibly above before topping. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09, or firm break of 118.45 cluster support, will likely extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.34; (P) 138.75; (R1) 139.21; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral first. Current development argues that choppy fall from 144.77 is still in progress. Further decline is mildly in favor as long as 140.60 resistance holds. Below 137.75 will target 136.44 support and below. But we'd expect support from 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 140.60 resistance will turn bias to the upside and send GBP/JPY through 144.77 resistance. Overall, price actions from 148.42 are forming a consolidation pattern.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern. Or, sustained break of 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 will turn outlook bearish for a test on 122.36 low. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

Market movers today

The main event this week is set to be the UK's triggering of Article 50 on Wednesday. The first part of the negotiations will be centred on the ‘divorce bill' for the UK. The EU has made it clear that substantial progress on this issue will have been delivered before starting negotiations on a new trade deal.

On the date front today, in the euro area we are due to get the February figures for loan growth and M3 money supply growth. Loan growth increased for three consecutive months, from 1.8% yearly growth in October 2016 to 2.2% in January 2017. We estimate it increased further to 2.4% in February.

German Ifo expectations are also due to be released Today. Ifo expectations saw a fall in January to 103.2 from 105.5 in December 2016, but increased to 104.0 again in February. We believe it will have increased a bit further to 104.3 in March. Other survey indicators still indicate optimism in the business economy but German consumer confidence has started to trend lower and in coming months, we expect the same correction in the strong business sentiment seen recently.

German retail sales for February are also due for release. In January, we saw a monthly decline of 1.0% but we estimate a bounce back in February to 0.6%, as consumer confidence remains at a high level and low unemployment supports consumption. Note also that German unemployment figures are scheduled for release on Friday.

We also have two speeches from ECB executive board members. Peter Praet is set to speak on Monday, with Benoit Coeuré due to speak on Friday. The speeches are of special interest to market participants, as speculation about whether the ECB could hike rates before the termination of the QE programme has started to be priced in.

Selected market news

The dollar and US equity futures are this morning building on Friday's declines and gold is climbing further with bonds. This move comes after the failure of the US Congress on Friday night to pass the bill to replace Obamacare. As a result, the market is increasingly questioning whether the Trump administration will be able to pass any significant tax reforms and infrastructure bill, which is far more important for the economy than Obamacare. In our view, changes to US economic policy are likely to come later and be smaller than previously expected due to the chaos within the Republican Party. Asian equity markets are falling in line with US markets this morning. Emerging market currencies are on the other hand gaining against the USD, as a delay to expansionary fiscal policy in the US reduces the risk of more frequent Fed hikes than currently priced in by the markets.

In Europe, the EU leaders (excluding the UK government) showed unity in Rome, where they met to celebrate the 60th anniversary for the Rome Treaty this weekend. Prior to the meeting, there had been some fear that certain member states, such as Poland and Greece, would hijack the meeting to show their frustration against current EU policies, but this did not happen. At the meeting, German chancellor Angela Merkel said that the EU could move forward at different speeds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8622; (P) 0.8642; (R1) 0.8674; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. With 0.8699 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is mildly in favor. Below 0.8604 will target 61.8% of 0.8402 to 0.8786 at 0.8549 and possibly below. In that case, we'll look for support above to 0.8402 to bring another rebound before completing that correction from 0.8303. On the upside, above 0.8699 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.8786. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8922 to finish the pattern from 0.8303. Overall, price actions from 0.8303 are forming a corrective pattern, as the second leg of the correction from 0.9304.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4101; (P) 1.4154; (R1) 1.4211; More...

Initial bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside for the moment. Further rally should be seen to 100% projection of 1.3624 to 1.4183 from 1.3872 at 1.4431 next. Decisive break there will indicate upside acceleration and target 1.4721 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.4051 minor support will turn focus back to 1.3872 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we'd expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0694; (P) 1.0707; (R1) 1.0719; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. We'd slightly favoring the case of trend reversal on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. And, further rise is mildly in favor as long as 1.0683 minor support holds. Above 1.0761 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.0823 resistance first. Break will re-affirm the case of trend reversal and target 1.0897 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.0683 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0620 key support level again.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.0897 resistance should confirm that it's completed. And in that case, larger up trend is resuming for another high above 1.1198. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485.

Global Markets:

• Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 1.40 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.15 %, Hang Seng declined 0.05 %, ASX lost 0.10 %
• Commodities: Gold at $1256 (+0.65 %), Silver at $17.90 (+0.80 %), WTI Oil at $47.85 (-0.30 %), Brent Oil at $50.85 (-0.15 %)
• Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.37, UK 10-year yield at 1.20, German 10-year yield at 0.40

News & Data:

• Japanese PPI Services (YoY) Feb: 0.8% (est 0.5%; prev 0.5%)
• PBoC Fixes USDCNY Reference Rate At 6.8701 (prev fix 6.8845 prev close 6.8850)
• U.S. equity futures at six-week low after Trump healthcare setback – RTRS
• Stocks stumble on U.S. policy woes; Trumpflation trades suffer – RTRS
• Dollar hits near two-month low after Trump's healthcare debacle – RTRS
• OPEC, non-OPEC to look at extending oil-output cut by six months – RTRS

Markets Update:

The US Dollar came under broad pressure following the failure of Trump’s healthcare reform on Friday. It was not about the bill itself, but rather the fact that this reduces the chances for Trump’s planned tax reform.

USD/JPY was the worst performing currency pair overnight. The pair was relatively stable at the Sydney open and traded around 111. It came under increasing pressure after Tokyo opened for trading, and eventually declined to a low of 110.25. Key support is seen at 110. Should that level break, it is likely USD/JPY will extend losses to at least 108.

EUR/USD took out an important resistance level at 1.0830. Resistance is now seen ahead of the 1.09 level. Should that one be cleared as well, reaching 1.10 should not be too difficult.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar remains rather weak. The negative sentiment in stock markets is weighing on the currency, and traders prefer safe havens such as the Yen and Gold. AUD/USD fell to 0.7615 in Asia, and a break sub-0.76 would signal that another test of 0.75 support may follow soon.

Upcoming Events:

• 09:00 GMT – German IFO Business Climate
• 15:30 GMT – US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
• 23:00 GMT – RBA Assistant Governor Debelle speaks
• 23:30 GMT – FOMC Member Kaplan speaks

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, March 28th

• 15:00 GMT – US CB Consumer Confidence
• 15:00 GMT – US Richmond Manufacturing Index
• 15:10 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks

Wednesday, March 29th

• 15:00 GMT – US Pending Home Sales
• 15:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, March 30th

• 01:00 GMT – Australia HIA New Home Sales
• 11:00 GMT – Euro Zone Consumer Confidence
• 13:00 GMT – German CPI
• 13:30 GMT – US GDP
• 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, March 31st

• 00:30 GMT – Japanese CPI
• 00:30 GMT – Japanese Household Spending
• 00:50 GMT – Japanese Industrial Production
• 01:00 GMT – Australian ANZ Business Confidence
• 02:00 GMT – Chinese Manufacturing PMI
• 02:00 GMT – Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI
• 07:00 GMT – German Retail Sales
• 07:45 GMT – French CPI
• 09:00 GMT – German Unemployment Rate
• 09:30 GMT – UK GDP
• 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI
• 10:00 GMT – Italian CPI
• 13:30 GMT – US Core PCE Price Index
• 13:30 GMT – US Personal Income
• 13:30 GMT – US Personal Spending
• 13:30 GMT – Canadian GDP
• 15:00 GMT – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment