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EUR/USD Continued weakness.

EUR/USD is moving lower. Hourly resistance is given at 1.0679 (16/02/2017 high) while hourly support at 1.0521 (15/02/2017 low) has been broken. The technical structure suggests deeper consolidation towards 1.0500.

In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD Pushing lower.

GBP/USD has broken support given at 1.2254 (19/01/2017 low). The road is wide-open for further decline. Hourly resistance is given at 1.2214 (intraday high).

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment

USD/JPY Stalling below 115.00.

USD/JPY is showing limited short-terms buying interest after reversing off base lows. Key resistance is given at 115.62 (19/01/2016 high). The technical structure suggests further renewed bearish pressures towards 112.00.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low

USD/CHF Continued increase.

USD/CHF continues to improves after testing 1.0021 support. Hourly resistance is implied by upper bound of the uptrend channel. Key resistance is given at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to see further strengthening.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Surging towards 1.3500.

USD/CAD's bullish pressures are definitely on after breaking key resistance at 1.3353 (20/01/2017 high). Yet, as long as this resistance was not broken (20/01/2017 high), bullishness was limited. Expected to see further upside potential for the pair.

In the longer term, there is a golden cross with the 50 dma crossing the 200 dma indicating further upside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Wide-open for further weakness.

AUD/USD keeps on declining since its exit from uptrend channel. The road is wide-open for further weakness. Key resistance is given at 0.7778 (08/11/2016 high).

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/CHF Renewed bearish pressures.

EUR/CHF's bullish pressures have increased sharply. Strong resistance given at 1.0762 (27/12/2016 high) seems nonetheless far. Anyway, the medium-term pattern suggests us to see continued bearish pressures towards key support that can be found at 1.0623 (24/06/2016 low). Temporary surges seem the new normal for the CHF.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY Trading sideways.

EUR/JPY's demand has slowed down after reaching 121.00. Hourly resistance can be located at 121.34 (10/02/2017 high). Strong resistance is given at a distance at 123.31 (27/01/2017 high). Expected to show further consolidation.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Monitoring resistance at 0.8707.

EUR/GBP is pushing higher towards strong resistance at 0.8707 (18/01/2017 high). Since key resistance at 0.8645 has been broken, we rule out further weakness towards supports given at 0.8450 (03/01/2016 low) and at 0.8304 (05/12/2016). Expected to pause below resistance at 0.8707.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

USD/CAD – 1.3507

USD/CAD – Wave v ended at 0.9407 and a-b-c correction may extend gain to 1.4700

As the greenback has surged again after brief pullback, suggesting early retreat from 1.3599 top has ended at 1.2969 back in Jan and bullishness remains for the rise from there to extend further gain towards said resistance, break there would confirm the erratic rise from 1.2461 low has resumed for a stronger correction of early decline from 1.4690 (2016 high) to 1.3700 and later towards 1.3790-00, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.3835-40 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4690-1.2461) and bring retreat later.

We are keeping our view that the wave b from 1.0657 (a leg top) has possibly ended at 0.9633 with (a): 0.9800, wave (b): 1.0447 and wave c at 0.9633, the subsequent rise from there is now treated as wave c exceeded indicated upside target at 1.3770-80 and 1.4000 and wave (3) has possibly ended at 1.4690 and wave (4) correction has commenced for retracement back to 1.2832 support, then 1.2410-20.

On the daily chart, our latest preferred count remains that the A of (B) rally from 0.9059 low (7 Nov 2007) unfolded into an impulsive wave with i: 0.9059-1.0380, ii ended at 0.9819, iii at 1.3019 followed by triangle wave iv at 1.2026 , then wave v formed a top at 1.3066 and also ended the wave A. The wave B is unfolding as an double three a-b-c-x-a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c at 1.0784, followed by wave x at 1.1725, another set of a-b-c unfolded with 2nd a at 0.9931, 2nd b at 1.0674. the 2nd c has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3900 had been met and gain to 1.4700 would follow.

On the downside, whilst pullback to 1.3450 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 1.3375-80 and bring another upmove to aforesaid upside targets. Below 1.3290-00 would defer and suggest a temporary top is formed, bring correction to 1.3275-80  and then test of previous resistance at 1.3210-12 (now support). Only below this level would suggest the rebound from 1.2969 has ended and prolong choppy trading, bring weakness to 1.3100 but downside should be limited to 1.3056 support, bring rebound later. 
 
Recommendation: Buy at 1.3380 for 1.3580 with stop below 1.3280.

Longer term - The selloff from 1.6194 (21 Jan 2002) to 0.9059 (07 Nov 2007) is viewed as (A) wave which is a 5-waver as labeled on the monthly chart as below, the subsequently rally is labeled as (B) with impulsive A leg of (B) ended at 1.3066, wave B of (B) is unfolding which has either ended at 0.9407 or would extend one more fall but downside should be limited to 0.9200 and 0.9000 should hold.

'Unseasonably mild winter weather undoubtedly played a role. But near-record-high job openings and record-low layoffs underpin the entire job market.' - Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics

The US private sector created more than expected jobs last month, surprising markets. The ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday showed companies added 298,000 new jobs to the economy in February, while analysts expected a gain of 184,000 jobs. The report also showed that January's initially reported gain of 246,000 jobs was revised up to 261,000. Wednesday's stronger-than-expected ADP figures provided support to the US Dollar on hopes that Friday's NFP would surprise on the upside. After the release, the EUR/USD pair fell to 102.00, while the US Dollar Index advanced to 101.80. Markets expect Friday's NFP data to show a rise of 185,000 for February, compared to the preceding month's gain of 227,000. If the actual data comes in higher than economists' estimates, it would provide additional support for Fed officials to raise rates at their meeting next week. According to market consensus, the unemployment rate slowed down to 4.7% in February from the previous month's 4.8%. Other data release on Wednesday showed US crude oil inventories rose 8.2 million in the week ended March 3, compared to the prior week's gain of 1.5 million barrels, while market analysts anticipated a climb of 1.1 million barrels during the reported week.

'As we start our negotiations to exit the European Union, this Budget takes forward our plan to prepare Britain for a brighter future '. - Philip Hammond

The UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond presented his annual budget statement for the 2017-18 fiscal year on Wednesday. According to the latest projections, the British economy is likely to expand 2% in 2017, compared to a previous estimate of 1.4%. Nevertheless, during the next year economic growth is expected to fall to 1.6% and then climb to 1.7% and 1.9% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Hammond also said that a return to a 2% growth rate is expected in 2021. Meanwhile, inflation is seen hitting 2.4% in 2017, before slowing to 2.3% in 2018. Inflation is expected to return to the Bank of England's target rate of 2% in 2019. Net borrowing in the public sector is predicted to drop to 2.6% in 2016-2017, compared with 3.8% in 2015-2016, and rebound to 2.9% in 2017-2018. However, Hammond highlighted that it would probably decline to 1.9% in 2018-2019 and hit 0.7% in 2021-2022. He also said that the personal allowance would increase to 11,500 pounds, as well as the higher rate of income tax threshold would rise to 45,000 pounds. For small businesses the tax-free dividend allowance would decline to 2,000 pounds. Furthermore, the government would give a 1,000 pound discount on business rate bills for all pubs with rateable value up to 100,000 pounds in 2017.

E-mini S&P500 found some support in the last 24 hours, likely it's turning up for a new three wave bounce as we see a completed five wave decline down from 2400 high. As such, price may see more upside in the near-term, up to around 2375 or even 2383 resistance before downtrend may resume.

S&P500, 1H

The NZD/USD has been dropping consistently within the Equidistant channel versus its counterpart USD mainly due to expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeps its rate low.Additionally, the dairy prices fell in the overnight auction, adding to overall NZD weakness. The POC zone is 0.6935-50 (H4, DPP, equidistant channel top, ATR top) and we might expect new rejection if the price gets within the zone. 1h momentum or 4h close below 0.6890 marks the continuation towards 0.6858 and 0.6840. The ATR has been low but consistent so the NZD could be also suitable for traders who are afraid to trade volatile pairs.

Aussie dollar remains under pressure and eventually probes through a cluster of supports between 0.7529/06 (200 / 55 / 100 SMA's and Fibo 38.2% of 0.7158/0.7739 rally).

Today's fresh bearish acceleration today extends the second leg (commenced from 0.7630) of pullback from 0.7739 (23 Feb high).

Strong bearish signals are generating, with daily close below 0.7500 handle required to confirm scenario. Penetration of 0.7471 (daily cloud top) would open next targets at 0.7448 (50% retracement) and 0.7426 (daily cloud base).

Falling 10SMA marks strong resistance at 0.7602.

Res: 0.7529, 0.7570, 0.7602, 0.7630
Sup: 0.7500, 0.7471, 0.7448, 0.7426

Cable entered near-term consolidation phase above 1.2155 target (Fibo 76.4% of 1.1986/1.2704 rally) which was cracked on Wednesday. The pair hit new seven-week low at 1.2137, but failed to confirm break on close below 1.2155.

This is seen as key near-term point, break of which would open way towards key short-term support at 1.1986 (16 Jan low).

Firmly bearish technical studies favor further weakness, with initial offers standing just above 1.2200 barrier (yesterday's high), while lower platform at 1.2300 (reinforced by falling daily Tenkan-sen) marks strong resistance and the upper breakpoint.

Res: 1.2212, 1.2250, 1.2300, 1.2345
Sup: 1.2155, 1.2137, 1.2100, 1.2035

EUR/JPY - 121.42

Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79

Trend: Sideways

Original strategy:

Buy at 119.65, Target: 121.35, Stop: 119.05

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop: -

New strategy :

Buy at 120.95, Target: 122.55, Stop: 120.35

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

As the single currency has risen again after finding renewed buying interest at 120.02 yesterday, adding credence to our bullishness and signal the rise from 118.24 low is still in progress for at least a strong retracement of recent decline to 122.00 and possibly towards 122.50 but overbought condition should limit upside and price should falter well below resistance at 122.52, bring another decline later.

In view of this, we are looking to buy euro on dips but at a higher level as 120.90-00 should limit downside and bring another rise. Below 120.45-50 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed instead, risk weakness to said support at 120.02 but break there is needed to provide confirmation and suggest the rise from 118.24 has ended.

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i - 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii - 97.03, wave iv - 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).

The pair is attempting again through 114.73 (03 / 08 Mar highs) after yesterday's rally was rejected here.

Fresh bullish acceleration emerges above daily cloud which twisted today and seen supportive for further upside.

Bulls eye immediate target at 115.08 (50% of 118.59/111.57 descend), break of which would open 115.36 and 115.60 (high of 27 / 19 Jan respectively) and unlock strong barrier at 115.91 (Fibo 61.8% of 118.59/111.57).

Multiple bull-crosses (10/30 and 10/20 SMA's, as well as daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen bull-cross) underpin, with close above widening daily cloud needed to confirm scenario.

Session low at 114.27 marks initial support, ahead of former pivotal barriers at 114.10 zone, with key near-term support at 113.56 (higher base).

Res: 115.09, 115.36, 115.60, 115.91
Sup: 114.27, 114.10, 113.56, 113.28