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'The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for the week ending March 11, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate.' - US Department of Labour

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, hitting the highest level over the past seven weeks, official figures revealed on Thursday. The US Department of Labour reported initial jobless claims rose by 15,000 to a total of 258,000 in the week ended March 17, up from the preceding week's upwardly revised reading of 243,000. In the meantime, market analysts expected unemployment claims to hit 240,000 during the reported week. Nevertheless, even despite the uptick in last week's claims, US labour market remained solid, with employers being slow to dismiss workers, as it becomes rather difficult to fill vacancies with experienced employees. The February figure marked the 80th consecutive week of claims below 300,000, which is widely considered as a healthy jobs market.

Apart from that, Thursday's report also featured yearly alterations for previously reported initial and continuing claims, with the latter benchmark dropping 39,000 to settle at 2M over the week ended March 10, while the unemployment rate among those eligible for jobless benefits managed to decline to 1.4% from the 1.5% reading registered previously.

'Because the daily chart is at the neck line of a head and shoulders bottom, there is a 40% chance of a strong breakout and a measured move up.' – Al Brook, Brooks Price Action (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook

On Friday morning the common European currency traded against the US Dollar near the support, provided by the monthly R1, at the 1.0772 level. The currency exchange rate was still undecided on its course during the day, as the rate bounced around the mentioned level of significance. Traders are advised to watch out for a break to the upside, as it is forecasted by various market analysts, which means that bullish bias is set to prevail. However, the direction is most likely going to be set by the fundamentally important US healthcare vote.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX traders remain bearish, as 63% of open positions are short on Friday. Meanwhile, 53% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.

'While GBP managed to make a 'fresh high' of 1.2532, the up-move is lacking in momentum. That said, the undertone is generally positive and GBP could continue to edge higher towards 1.2550.' – UOB Group (based on FXStreet)

Pair's Outlook

Thursday was a relatively productive day for the British Pound, as it successfully stabilised above the 1.25 mark. However, downside risks are now higher, due to this major level being a tough psychological resistance, which tends to trigger U-turns lately, despite being crossed to the upside. As a result, the Cable could be seen undergoing a bearish correction today, with the monthly PP being a solid obstacle where support might be found. A much sharper decline is also possible, in which case the 55 and the 100-day SMAs are to limit the losses circa 1.24. Nevertheless, the GBP/USD is expected to continue recovering until the 1.27 handle is reached within the next month.

Traders' Sentiment

Traders' sentiment remains bullish, but now at 61% (previously 63%). The number of orders to sell the Sterling slid from 71 to 56%.

'U.S. yields are higher and it's not hard for dollar/yen to attract bids. It is often overlooked but the dollar continues to enjoy underlying support from widening U.S.-Japanese interest rate spreads.' – State Street Bank and Trust (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

The US Dollar slid against the Japanese Yen again yesterday, failing to find support at the 111.00 major level, which was expected to trigger a rebound. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY pair has the opportunity to reverse momentum today and being recovering from its nearly 400 pips slump over the last eight days. Despite the possible rally, gains are likely to be very limited, with the 111.60 mark expected to be the ceiling. On the other hand, if US President Trump manages to broker a deal concerning the new healthcare system today, the Greenback will have the potential to even retake the weekly S1 at 111.78.

Traders' Sentiment

There are 70% of traders holding long positions today, compared to 69% on Thursday. Meanwhile, there are 65% of pending orders to purchase the Buck, up from 49% yesterday.

'If the (healthcare) vote is to pass the reforms, gold could face pressure. But, if it encounters problems, we might chase a previous high at around $1,260.' – Reuters

Pair's Outlook

The yellow metal traders are expecting the fundamentally important vote on US healthcare, which will reveal, whether Donald Trump can get legislation passed. Due to that reason the bullion bounced around the 1,245 mark on Friday morning. From a technical perspective the commodity price is squeezed in between the weekly R1 at 1,242.38 and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,248.96, which is enforced by the long term downward trend line at 1,250.12. Due to this trend line it can be assumed that the legislative bill will not be passed. However, it might as well be easily broken, and market participants should stay vigilant.

Traders' Sentiment

Trader open positions are once more neutral on the metal. However, 64% of orders are set to buy the bullion.

The Aussie holds in red for the fourth straight day and probed below strong supports at 0.7623/18 (top of ascending daily cloud / sideways-moving daily Kijun-sen).Dips were so far contained by 4-hr cloud base at 0.7604.

Firm break here would generate stronger bearish signal for deeper correction of 0.7489/0.7747 upleg, as the pair is on track for strong bearish weekly close.

Daily studies are moving into bearish mode and together with negative near-term technicals maintain downside risk.

However, the price may show hesitation at these supports as slow stochastic is reversing on 4-hr chart and entering oversold territory on daily.

While strong near-term bearish sentiment persists, we expect limited upside action, with focus still at lower targets at 0.7588 (Fibo 61.8% of 0.7489/0.7747) and more significant 0.7543 (200SMA / weekly cloud top).

Return above broken 10SMA (0.7653) would ease immediate bearish pressure, while sustained break above 0.7700 barrier is needed to confirm reversal.

Res: 0.7640, 0.7653, 0.7682, 0.7700
Sup: 0.7604, 0.7588, 0.7543, 0.7506

The pair moved higher on Friday after hitting fresh low at 110.61 the day before, so far unable to firmly break into thick weekly cloud that counteract broader bears (USDJPY left 8 consecutive bearish daily candles on steep descend from 115.49).

Bounce is seen as corrective ahead of fresh extension lower that eyes psychological 110.00 support, however, correction may extend as bullish signal is generating on daily chart slow stochastic reversal from oversold territory.

In addition, today’s close above weekly cloud top (111.36) would generate another bullish signal.

Solid barriers lay at 111.60 (former base) and (111.97 (broken Fibo 38.2% of larger 101.17/118.65 ascend), where upticks should be ideally capped.

Otherwise, extended correction could be anticipated on break above 111.97 and 112.47 (Fibo 38.2% of 115.49/110.61 downleg).

Res: 111.36, 111.60, 111.97, 112.47
Sup: 110.84, 110.61, 110.25, 110.00

EUR/USD

Current level - 10772

The outlook remains positive, for a break through 1.0828, towards 1.0940 resistance mark. Crucial on the downside is 1.0712 low.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

USD/JPY

Current level - 111.27

The rebound above 110.70 is corrective and the overall outlook remains bearish, for a slide towards 109.75 target area. Key resistance lies at 112.26.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.2487

The overall outlook is bullish, for a tight test of 1.2570 and even 1.2620. Initial support lies at 1.2425 and crucial on the senior frames is 1.2335

Cable pulled back from Thursday's fresh one-month high at 1.2529, with dips being so far contained by thick hourly Ichimoku cloud (spanned between 1.2479/26).

Strong overall bullish stance was boosted by Thursday's close above 1.2476 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.2704/1.2107 downleg), keeping targets at 1.2563/69 (Fibo 76.4% of 1.2704/1.2107 / 24 Feb high) in near-term focus.

Overbought slow stochastic on daily chart suggests that correction may extend, but no firmer bearish signal seen so far.

Broken 100SMA (1.2412) and top of daily cloud (1.2404) mark strong supports which are expected to contain extended dips.

Res: 1.2518, 1.2529, 1.2568, 1.2580
Sup: 1.2472, 1.2426, 1.2412, 1.2404

The Euro extends pullback from 1.0823 high on Friday and seen poised for further easing, as reversed slow stochastic on daily chart shows plenty of room downside.

The move is seen as correction ahead of fresh push higher as underlying trend remains bullish and the pair being on track for the fourth consecutive bullish weekly close.

Dips should be ideally contained above 1.0711 (daily Tenkan-sen, also near Fibo 38.2% of 1.0493/1.0823 upleg at 1.0697) to keep bullish structure intact.

Regain of 1.0827 target (02 Feb high / Fibo 38.2% of larger 1.1614/1.0339, May 2016 / Jan 2017 descend) would signal possible attack at 200SMA (currently at 1.0881).

Additional support is seen on weekly close above the neckline of asymmetric inverse H&S pattern on daily chart (1.0778) which was dented but without firm break higher so far.

Alternatively, break below 1.0700 handle would risk deeper correction and unmask daily Kijun-sen / daily cloud top at 1.0658/45.

Today's focus is on vote on US healthcare plan that was postponed from Thursday.

Res: 1.0803, 1.0827, 1.0881, 1.0950
Sup: 1.0759, 1.0711, 1.0697, 1.0658