Sample Category Title

Two long positions were entered in Swissy, the first long position entered at 1.0065 were stopped profit at 1.0095, as the greenback rose again after finding support at 1.0073, we entered another long position at 1.0100 but dollar topped out at 1.0171 and the retreat from there turned out to be deeper than expected, the position was stopped at 1.0070. 

A short position was entered in EUR/USD and the position was exited at 1.0575. We also entered at long position in USD/JPY at 114.70 and in view of the retreat happened today, we exited the position with small losses.

We bought cable earlier today at 1.2215 and the position is still holding at the moment.

In short, 5 positions were entered among all 4 currency pairs with total loss of 13 points and the positions are listed below:

 3 Mar : EUR/USD - Short at 1.0570, exited at 1.0575 (- 5 points)
 3 Mar : USD/CHF - Long at 1.0065, exited at 1.0095 (+ 30 points)
10 Mar: USD/CHF - Long at 1.0100, exited at 1.0070 (- 30 points)
13 Mar: USD/JPY - Long at 114.70, exited at 114.62 (- 8 points)
13 Mar: GBP/USD - Long at 1.2215,

|                 JPY             EUR             CHF            GBP

Jan          + 167             - 85              - 10            + 50
Feb          + 200            +150             +93            - 59
Mar               -8                - 5                  0
Apr          
May         
Jun          
Jul           
Aug         
Sep             
Oct         
Nov        
Dec                                                                                               
Y-T-D       + 359            + 60                +83           - 9     

Last week , GBP USD ended the cycle from 02/02/2017 peak which unfolded as a double three Elliott wave structure with a FLAT in the Y leg. Pair slightly exceeded 123.6 Fibonacci extension (1.2145) of the first 3 swings lower from 2/2 peak before making a push higher today. With the bounce seen today, it has become more clearer that pair has ended the cycle at least from 2/24 (1.2570) high at least and as dips hold above 1.2132 low, pair can extend into the bounce . In the near-term , the pair ended 3 waves bounce and it's expected to pullback lower against the recent low 1.2132 . The pair should hold above that level for 1 more leg higher at least and could reach as highs as 50 – 61.8 Fibonacci retracement area that comes around 1.2420 – 1.2486 area.

If GBP USD makes another low, it should still be in the same cycle from 2/2 (1.2706) and decline could then be labelled as an ABC from 02/02 peak and the new low will be part of wave (( v )) of C New low, if seen, should be short-lived and we can see the pair bouncing again from 1.2100 – 1.2009 are.

GBP USD 1 Hour Chart

In this technical blog we are going to take a quick look at the USD CAD Elliott wave structure from January 31 cycle (1.2967), in which the pair was expected to do a double three Elliott wave, where wave Minute wave ((w)) ended at 1.3209 & Minute wave ((x)) at 1.3006, up from there Minutte wave (w) ended at 1.3208. Thus pair was expected to trade higher while short term dips remained above 1.3006 low. Below is the 1 hour weekend updated chart from Feb 25, showing correction of cycle from 1.3006 low in Minutte wave (x) pullback as 11 swings sequence Triple three structure towards 1.3078-1.3027 blue box area.

USD CAD 1 Hour weekend chart from Feb 25

Afterwards pair was expected to resume higher from the blue box area as far as pivot from 1.3006 low remains intact or was expected to see a 3 wave bounce at least. Since then pair has rallied nicely from the blue box area (1.3078-1.3027) and broke above 1.3208 peak suggesting the next leg higher has started as shown below the February 28 1 hour NY updated chart.

USD CAD 1 Hour NY chart from February 28

The proposed pullback in Minutte wave (x) ended at 1.3051 low, while above there & more importantly above 1.3006 low, pair was expected to resume higher towards (1.3256-1.3306) 100%-123.6% fib ext area of first 3 swings to end the cycle from January 31 low. But then, pair exceeded the 1.618% Fibonacci extension area (1.3382) area & move from 1.3051 looks extended thus favoring the idea of 5 swings up from 1.3070 (2/16) low at least and possible become a FLAT from 1/31 low (1.2965). Area between 1.3382-1.3460 was expected to end wave ((iii) before pair pulled back in wave ((iv)) to correct the cycle from 1.3051 low and turned higher again in wave ((v)) of C as the updated chart from March 3 2017 below is showing.

USD CAD 1 hour NY chart from March 3

Pair made the 3 swing pullback in Minute wave ((iv)) & resumed higher again as expected for final push higher, The pullback in Minute wave ((iv)) ended in the pair at 1.3367 low, although pair has reached the minimum extension area already & have enough number of swings in placed to suggest the cycle from 1/31 lows could be done but while above 1.3367 low pair has scope to see another leg higher towards 1.3635 area approximately before pair ends the cycle from 1/31 lows & does the 3 wave pullback at least. Cycle from 1/31 low is already mature and can end soon which is why we do not like chasing longs at this stage.

USD CAD 1 hour chart from March 07

USD/CHF - 1.0072

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 1.0093

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.0091

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 1.0124

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 1.0119

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The greenback met renewed selling interest at 1.0114 earlier today and has dropped again, suggesting the erratic fall from 1.0171 top is still in progress, however, break of support at 1.0065 is needed to retain bearishness and signal recent erratic rise from 0.9861 has ended and bring further fall to 1.0035-40 but support at 1.0009 should remain intact, bring rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the  meantime. Above 1.0114 would bring test of indicated resistance at 1.0142 but break there is needed to signal low is formed instead, bring further gain towards last week’s high at 1.0171.

GBP/USD - 1.2225

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2218

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2194

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2165

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2165

Original strategy :

Bought at 1.2215, Target: 1.2320, Stop: 1.2180

Position : - Long at 1.2215

Target :  - 1.2320

Stop : - 1.,2180

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 1.2215, Target: 1.2320, Stop: 1.2180

Position : - Long at 1.2215

Target :  - 1.2320

Stop : - 1.2180

Current rally above indicated resistance at 1.2195 suggests a temporary low is possibly formed at 1.2135 last week and consolidation with upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline, hence further gain to 1.2260-65 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2471-1.2135) would be seen, however, break of 1.2301-03 (previous resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement) is needed to signal low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 1.2340-45 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) later.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 1.2215. Below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2194) would defer and risk weakness to 1.2170 but said support at 1.2135 should hold. Only break there would abort and signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.2100.

EUR/USD - 1.0668

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.0685

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.0667

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.0609

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.0589

Original strategy  :

Buy at 1.0640, Target: 1.0740, Stop: 1.0610

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.0640, Target: 1.0740, Stop: 1.0610

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has retreated after rising to 1.0714 earlier today, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.0640 (previous resistance now support) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited and bring another rise later, above 1.0714 would signal the erratic rise from 1.0493 low is still in progress and may extend gain to 1.0740-45 (1.5 times projection of 1.0495-1.0640 measuring from 1.0525) but loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0760 (1.618 times projection of 1.0495-1.0640 measuring from 1.0525).

In view of this, we are looking to buy euro on further pullback as 1.0540 should limit downside, bring another rise later. Below another previous resistance at 1.0615 would abort and signal top has been formed, risk further fall to 1.0575-80 first. 

Intraday price action on EURUSD is looking quite impulsive to the upside. We see this bullish run as part of a more complex correction, a W-X-Y that may be in final stages. That said, current price activity is pointing nicely to the upside within wave Y, after sub wave iv finds a base around the 38.2 or 50.0 Fibonacci ratio.

EURUSD, 1H

USD/JPY - 114.68

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 114.66

Kijun-Sen level                  : 114.83

Ichimoku cloud top             : 115.10

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 114.73

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback recovered after finding support at 114.48 and minor consolidation is in store, reckon upside would be limited to 115.00 and near term downside risk remains for the fall from 115.51 top (last week’s high) to bring at least a retracement of recent upmove to 114.26 support but downside should be limited to 114.00-05 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 111.69-115.51) and price should stay well above strong support at 113.56-61), bring rebound later.

In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside for now. Above 115.00 would suggest an intra-day low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 115.25-30 but still reckon said resistance at 115.51 would cap upside. Only break there would revive bullishness and extend recent upmove to previous resistance at 115.62, then towards 115.90-00. 

EUR/GBP - 0.8719

 
Recent wave: Major double three (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C) is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.

Trend: Near term down

Original strategy  :

Buy at 0.8660, Target: 0.8760, Stop: 0.8620

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 0.8660, Target: 0.8760, Stop: 0.8620

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

 
As the single currency has finally retreated after rising to 0.8788 last week, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 0.8690-00 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.8655-60 and bring another rise later, break of said resistance at 0.8788 would extend the rise from 0.8403 low to 0.8800, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 0.8825-30 and price should falter well below 0.8850.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy euro on further subsequent pullback as 0.8655-60 should limit downside. Below 0.8620-25 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, risk test of 0.8600 but support at 0.8547 should remain intact. 

Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.

USD/CAD - 1.3451

 
Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway for headway to 1.4700

Trend:  Near term up

 
Original strategy       :

Buy at 1.3350, Target: 1.3550, Stop: 1.3290

Position: -

Target:  -

Stop: -

 
New strategy             :

Buy at 1.3350, Target: 1.3550, Stop: 1.3290

Position: -

Target:  -

Stop:-

Although the greenback rose to as high as 1.3535 last week, the subsequent retreat has retained our view that consolidation below this level would be seen and initial downside risk is for pullback to 1.3400, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.3370-75 support and renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.3350-55 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3056-1.3535) and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.3535 would extend recent upmove for further gain to 1.3570-75 and possibly towards 1.3600 but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3640-50, bring retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy on further pullback as 1.3350 should limit downside. Only below 1.3295-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3056-1.3535) would signal top is formed, risk correction to 1.3250-60 but price should stay well above indicated previous resistance at 1.3212 (now support), bring another rise later.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.