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EUR/USD rebounded strongly last week and hit as high as 1.0698. The strong break of 1.0630 resistance indicates completion of corrective pull back from 1.0828. More importantly, whole rise from 1.0339 is possibly resuming. But still, such rise is still seen as a correction and the larger down trend should resume after it completes.

Initial bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside this week for 1.0828. Break there will target 100% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0494 at 1.0983. But upside should be limited there to completion the corrective rise and bring reversal. Meanwhile, on the downside, break of prior resistance at 1.0630 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0494 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress and there is no clear sign of completion. We'd expect more downside towards 0.8223 (2000 low) as long as 1.1298 resistance holds. However, firm break of 1.1298 should now confirm long term reversal.

USD/JPY jumped to as high as 115.49 last week but formed a temporary top there and retreated. The break of 114.94 resistance indicates completion of corrective fall from 118.65, with a double bottom pattern (111.58, 111.68). Hence, while some consolidation could be seen this week. Another rise is expected later to retest 118.65 high.

Initial bias in USD/JPY is neutral this week for consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by 113.60 support and bring another rally. Above 115.49 will turn bias to the upside to target a test on 118.65. decisive break there will extend whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 high next. However, break of 113.60 will invalidate our view and turn bias back to the downside for 111.58/68 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD dropped further to as low as 1.2133 last week but lost some downside momentum. Mild bullish convergence condition is seen in 4 hour MACD. Some consolidations could be seen this week first but overall outlook is unchanged. That is consolidation pattern from 1.1946 is completed at 1.2705 and fall from there would break through 1.1946 low eventually to resume the larger down trend.

Initial bias in GBP/USD is neutral this week first for consolidations. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2346 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2133 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1946/86 support zone. Break of 1.1946 will confirm our bearish view and resume the larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 is still in progress. Current momentum suggests that the down trend will go deeper than originally expected to 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532.

USD/CHF's edged higher to 1.0169 last week but continued to lose upside moment. Bearish divergence is seen in 4 hour MACD. But retreat was contained well above 1.0008 support so far. The development is so far consistent with our view that while rise from 0.9860 might extend, there is no evidence to support breaking 1.0342 high.

Initial bias in USD/CHF remains neutral this week for. Further rise is expected with 1.0008 intact. Above 1.0169 will turn bias to the upside to extend rise from 0.9860. However, based on neutral medium term outlook, we'd be cautious on topping below 1.0342. On the downside, break of 1.0008, however, will indicate completion of the rebound from 0.9860. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.9860.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection from 1.0327 resistance argues that USD/CHF is staying in a medium term sideway pattern. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone.

Meanwhile firm break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.7490 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. The close below 55 day EMA is consistent with our preferred case that whole rise from 0.7150 has completed at 0.7740. While some consolidations could be seen initially this week, deeper decline is expected ahead to target 0.7158 support level.

Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7531 resistance and bring another decline. Below 0.7490 will extend the fall from 0.7740 to target 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, break of 0.7631 resistance will dampen our bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7740 instead.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8185) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we're not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We'll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

USD/CAD's rise from 1.2968 extended last week to high as 1.3534. Subsequent pull back and bearish divergence condition suggests that a short term top could be formed ahead of 1.3598 resistance. Some consolidations could be seen first but another rise is expected later to push USD/CAD through 1.3598 to extend the medium term rise from 1.2460.

Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Downside of pull back should be contained well above 1.3211 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.3008 to 1.3534 at 1.3209) and bring rise resumption. Above 1.3534 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3598 high. Break there will extend the medium term rise from 1.2460 to next fibonacci level at 1.3838.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We'd look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 wold at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It's taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road.

GBP/JPY breached 138.53 support briefly last week but quickly recovered. It's staying in range of 138.53 and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 148.42 are viewed as a consolidation pattern.

Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 138.53 support will bring deeper decline to 136.44 support and possibly below. However, we'd expect strong support at 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 142.79 will turn bias back to the upside for 144.77 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern with a test on 122.36 low next. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

In the longer term picture, while price actions from 122.36 would develop into a medium term correction, fall from 195.86 is still seen as resuming the down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). Hence, after the correction from 122.36 completes we'd expect another fall through 116.83 low.

EUR/JPY's rebound from 118.23 short term bottom continued last week and reached as high as 122.82. Outlook is unchanged that correction from 124.08 has completed at 118.23 after defending 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39). Rise from 109.20 is likely resuming.

Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 124.08 high. Break will resume whole medium term rally from 109.20 and target 126.09 key resistance next. On the downside, below 121.88 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat before staging anther rally.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rise from 109.20 is still in progress. Focus is now on 126.09 key resistance level. Sustained break will confirm completion of the whole decline from 149.76. And rise from 109.20 is of the same degree as the fall from 149.76. In such case, further rally would be seen to 104.04 resistance and possibly above before topping. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.209 low.

In the long term picture, medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. Decisive break of 126.09 will indicate that such decline is completed and EUR/JPY has started another medium term rally already. Before that, deeper fall is mildly in favor towards 94.11 low. Overall,, long term rang trading will continue.

EUR/AUD's strong rebound from 1.3642 short term bottom continued last week and reached as high as 1.4178. The development added more credence to the case of medium term trend reversal after defending key support level at 1.3671, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD.

Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.4289 resistance first. Sustained break there will affirm our bullish view and target 1.4721 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4064 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But downside should be contained above 1.3874 support and bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We'd expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn't over yet. We'll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, break of 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

EUR/GBP's rise from 0.8402 extended last week and reached as high as 0.8782. Outlook is unchanged that rise from 0.8420 is the third leg of corrective pattern from 0.8303. Initial bias stays on the upside for 0.8851 resistance and above.

Meanwhile, price actions from 0.8303 are seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9304. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance from 100% projection of 0.8303 to 0.8851 from 0.8402 at 0.8950 to limit upside.

On the downside, below 0.8704 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

In the long term picture, firstly, price action from 0.9799 is seen as a long term corrective pattern and should have completed at 0.6935. Secondly, rise from 0.6935 is likely resuming up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Thirdly, this is supported by the impulsive structure of the rise from 0.6935 to 0.9304. Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we'd expect another medium term up trend to target 0.9799 high and above.