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• A two-week US-Iran ceasefire was reached, immediately unwinding the "fear trade" that had been building in global markets.
• Oil prices tumbled dramatically, with US Crude (WTI) falling approximately 15%, easing concerns about "War Inflation".
• The ceasefire is viewed as only a tactical pause; traders are cautioned to remain vigilant as geopolitical headlines could quickly turn sentiment.

After weeks of trading on the edge of a precipice, global markets have finally caught a break. In what can only be described as a classic "Trumpian" 11th-hour maneuver, a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has been reached, just hours before a deadline that threatened to set the Middle East and global energy markets ablaze.

The relief across trading floors this Wednesday morning is palpable. For weeks, we’ve watched the Strait of Hormuz effectively become a no-go zone, choking off 20% of the world’s energy supply and sending volatility into overdrive. But with the announcement of Iran’s “workable 10-point plan,” the "fear trade" is unwinding as quickly as it built up.

Market Reaction: Crude Crumbles, Risk-On Returns

The most dramatic moves, unsurprisingly, are in the energy pits. Oil prices, which had been flirting with disastrous levels, have seen a massive flush-out. U.S. Crude (WTI) futures tumbled roughly 15%, sliding back under the psychological $100 handle to trade around $96.30. Brent Crude followed suit, dropping 13% to the $94.70 mark.

From a technical perspective, this is a massive relief valve for global inflationary pressures. We’ve been discussing the "War Inflation" theme for weeks; this de-escalation provides a much-needed cooling period.

Equities and FX are also seeing a "relief rally":

• Asia-Pacific: The Nikkei jumped 5%, while South Korea’s KOSPI surged 6%, even triggering a brief volatility halt.
• S&P 500 & Europe: Futures are pointing to a gap up, with European STOXX 50 futures leaping over 5%.
• The Dollar Index (DXY): The "safe-haven of choice" during the tumult has been knocked back to 98.83, a one-month low.

Gold (XAU/USD): Interestingly, Gold remains resilient, climbing 2.5% to $4,820. This suggests that while the immediate "shooting war" fears are fading, investors aren't ready to completely abandon hedges just yet and the hopes that inflationary pressure may prove short-lived remains in place for now..

The Outlook: A Two-Week Window of Opportunity

The "Iran 10-point plan" is being viewed as a workable framework for longer-term stability, but we must remain cautious. This is a two-week ceasefire, a tactical pause rather than a permanent peace.

Iran's 10-point plan includes the following terms:

• Commitment to non-aggression
• Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz
• Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment
• Lifting of all primary sanctions
• Lifting of all secondary sanctions
• Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
• Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions
• Paying compensation to Iran
• Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
• Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon

Trump says this plan is "a workable basis."

Part of the ceasefire plan allows Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, per CNN.

A regional official said this money would be used for the reconstruction of Iran.

Source: TruthSocial, X

For the day ahead, keep an eye on:

• Supply Chain Normalization: Markets will be looking for physical confirmation that tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz without incident.
• Dollar Weakness: If the DXY continues to slide, it could provide further tailwinds for the AUD and EUR, which have already seen significant bounces this morning.

Chart of the day - WTI Oil

The H4 chart for WTI illustrates a "liquidation candle," with price plummeting nearly 15% following the US-Iran ceasefire. The vertical drop saw oil slice through the 100-period SMA (purple) and psychological support at $100.00 with ease, signaling a massive shift in sentiment.

Currently, WTI is searching for a floor near the $96.30 mark. The RSI (14) has dipped sharply to 33.5, hovering just above oversold territory, which suggests the initial panic selling may be slowing. However, with price now trading well below the 100 SMA, the immediate bias remains bearish.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: If the slide continues, the 200-period SMA (yellow) near $88.00 and the horizontal support at $90.00 are the next major targets.
• Resistance: Any relief bounce faces a stiff hurdle at the $98.97 (100 SMA) and the previous breakdown point at $100.00.

WTI US Oil Four-Hour Chart, April 8, 2026

Source: TradingView

To conclude, markets have moved from the "brink" to the "bench." The ceasefire buys time, and for now, sentiment is king. Traders should enjoy the relief rally but keep their protective stops tight, geopolitical headlines can still turn the tide in minutes

The US dollar has shifted into a corrective phase following its previous rally, while market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. The weakening of the dollar has already led to a moderate pullback in USD/JPY and USD/CAD from recent highs, reflecting profit-taking and reduced activity ahead of a key event.

An additional factor influencing the market remains geopolitical tensions, which continue to affect global financial flows. Fluctuations in energy prices and persistent escalation risks are limiting the formation of устойчивых trends, increasing the dependence of currency pairs on incoming macroeconomic data.

Today, investor focus will be on the Federal Reserve minutes, which may help clarify the regulator’s stance on the future path of interest rates. The market will assess the tone of policymakers’ comments, particularly the balance between inflation risks and signs of economic slowdown. Depending on the tone, the market may either extend the dollar’s corrective move or revive demand for the US currency.

USD/JPY

Following a test of the key psychological resistance level at 160.00, USD/JPY has formed an “evening star” candlestick pattern. Technical analysis suggests a potential continuation of the downward correction if the pair holds below 159.20. If buyers manage to secure a move above 160.00, a retest of the yearly highs may follow.

Key events for USD/JPY:

• Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US Mortgage Market Index
• Today at 21:00 (GMT+3): FOMC Minutes
• Today at 21:35 (GMT+3): Speech by Fed’s Christopher Waller

USD/CAD

USD/CAD has formed a “dark cloud cover” pattern after a repeated test of the 1.3950 level. If the pair consolidates below 1.3880, the decline may extend towards 1.3780–1.3800. A break above 1.3970 would invalidate the bearish scenario.

Key events for USD/CAD:

• Today at 13:00 (GMT+3): Canada Leading Economic Index
• Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories
• Today at 18:00 (GMT+3): Canada Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI

The market remains in a corrective and anticipatory phase ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes. The current weakening of the dollar may continue if the Fed adopts a softer tone, while more hawkish signals could restore demand for the US currency and limit the extent of the pullback.

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Markets

Markets overnight again had to cope with a TACO-like U-turn regarding the conflict with Iran and the impact on the on energy supply affecting the global economy. Pakistan (PM Shehbaz Sarif) proposing a 10-point plan from Iran to the US apparently ‘convinced’ the US not to start a devastating attack on Iranian infrastructure and to agree to a 2-week ceasefire. Demands from both sides as put down in an earlier US-15 point plan and a new Iranian plan suggest that high hurdles have to be overcome. Even so, president Trump accepted the proposal as a workable basis to start negotiations. One of many key points that still have to be resolved/clarified is the framework on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The US sees a complete, immediate and safe opening of the Strait as part of the ceasefire agreement. Iran from his side mentions that ‘for a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed forces’. How this (and multiple other unresolved topics) will turn out both political and logistically still has to become clear. Even so, for markets the ceasefire trigged a logical Pavlov decompression move. After a modest rise early in US dealings, US yields already drifted gradually lower on rumours that Pakistan was actively working on a proposal. US yields already closed the session lower between 6 bps (2-y) and 1.6 bps (30-y). This morning the easing continues in an extended bull steepening move (2-y minus additionally 6.5 bps, 30-y minus 2.6 bps). At the close of the European markets, tension/fears of an escalation still were riding high with Bund yields closing between 10.8 (5-y) and 6.7 bps (30-y) higher. US equities yesterday closed the session little changed. The EuroStoxx 50 lost 1.05%. Already yesterday in the pre-ceasefire era, the dollar hardly profited with DXY closing well below the 110 barrier (99.86). Idem for EUR/USD (close 1.1595).

This morning’s relief after the ceasefire lifts all/multiple boats in a broad risk-on move. Asian equities jump sharply higher (Nikkei +5.45%, Kospi +7%). Brent oil tumbles form $110+ p/b levels yesterday to currently hovering near $94 p/b. The dollar eases further (DXY 98.75, EUR/USD 1.1685). We also keep a close at the re-evaluation on European interest rate markets. Yesterday, rising inflationary risks pushed expectations for a an April ECB rate hike close to 70% with cumulative 75 bps tightening discounted from the end of the year. To what end will the ceasefire make markets question that the impact of the recent developments already pushed price developments in line with the adverse scenario which they saw creating (pre-emptive) ECB action? In a scenario of oil holding in the $90-$100 range and plenty of political and logistical issues still to be solved, interest rate markets might still keep a scenario of at least two ‘pre-emptive’ ECB rate hikes in a not-that distant future. Given recent modest USD gains considering the level of tension, there is room for EUR/USD to move higher in the 1.14/1.18 ST trading range.

News & Views

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% this morning. Since its February meeting, events in the Middle East materially altered the outlook and balance of risks. The RBNZ didn’t completely update February forecasts for inflation but gave an indication for the short term by raising the prognosis for Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 respectively to 3% (from 2.8%) and 4.2% (from 2.7%). Today’s decision balances the potential benefits of responding pre-emptively to the risk of higher medium-term inflation against the cost of unnecessarily stifling the economic recovery. The Monetary Policy Committee is nevertheless vigilant to any generalized inflationary pressure and stands ready to act to return inflation to its medium-term target. Any signs of significant second-round inflationary effects or increases in medium-term inflation expectations would require decisive and timely increases in the policy rate to re-anchor inflation expectations. For now, the central bank believes that weak demand and spare productive capacity should constrain the degree to which higher costs can be passed on. It eyes the magnitude and duration to the disruption to global supply chains and energy markets and the way they influence price- and wage-setting behavior. The kiwi dollar extends cease-fire gains against USD after the hawkish hold with NZD/USD rising from 0.5730 to 0.5830.

The Reserve Bank of India left its policy change unaltered at 5.25% and kept a neutral stance, retaining flexibility to respond judiciously to incoming information. It is vigilant to upside inflation risks linked to the intensity and duration of the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting damage to energy and other infrastructure. CPI inflation for 2026-27 is projected to be at 4.6% with Q1 at 4%; Q2 at 4.4%; Q3 at 5.2%; and Q4 at 4.7%. The RBI has a 4% inflation target with a 2%-6% tolerance band.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6592; (P) 1.6653; (R1) 1.6686; More...

EUR/AUD's break of 1.6561 minor support suggests that corrective rebound from 1.6125 has already completed at 1.6842, after rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 1.6733)/ Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.6125. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, though, break of 1.6842 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.6125 at 1.7053.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7207) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8708; (P) 0.8725; (R1) 0.8739; More…

EUR/GBP is still bounded in consolidations below 0.8740 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 0.8740 will resume the rebound from 0.8610 short term bottom to 0.8788 resistance next. However, break of 0.8675 will bring retest of 0.8610 low instead.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be resume to resume through 0.8863. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 184.48; (P) 184.83; (R1) 185.44; More...

EUR/JPY's rise from 180.78 resumed by breaking through 184.75 resistance and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rally should be seen to retest 186.86 high. On the downside, below 184.21 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 182.56 will extend the corrective pattern from 186.86 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 186.86 and some more consolidations would be seen. Nevertheless, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 176.21) holds, the larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 211.52; (P) 211.92; (R1) 212.60; More...

GBP/JPY is staying below 213.29 resistance despite current strong rebound. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 213.29 will resume the rise from 207.20 and target a retest on 214.98 high. On the downside, below 209.58 will bring deeper fall to 207.20 to extend the corrective pattern from 214.98.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 203.13) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9216; (P) 0.9241; (R1) 0.9277; More....

EUR/CHF is staying in range trading and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.8979 at 0.9235 will pave the way to 0.9394 key resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8979 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.9281) holds, the larger down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still expected to continue through 0.8979 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rise through 0.9394 resistance, even as a corrective move.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3869; (P) 1.3900; (R1) 1.3917; More...

USD/CAD's fall from 1.3965 extended lower last week and focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 1.3840 to 1.3965 at 1.3780. Decisive break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.3840 has completed, and bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 1.3665 and below. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 1.3780 will retain near term bullishness for another rise through 1.3965 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6923; (P) 0.6951; (R1) 0.7004; More...

AUD/USD's strong rally today indicates that corrective fall from 0.7187 has already completed at 0.6832. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 0.7187 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to bring another fall the extend the corrective pattern. On the downside, below 0.6962 resistance turned support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.6706 cluster support holds, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) should still be in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). However, firm break of 0.6706 will dampen this bullish case, and bring deeper fall back to 0.6420 support, and possibly below.