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USD/JPY's fall from 161.94 resumed by breaking through 141.67 support last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 139.26 fibonacci level. Decisive break there would carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, above 143.03 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 147.20 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 161.94 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26, which is close to 140.25 support. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound. But in any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 149.35 resistance holds. Sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the long term picture, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 133.19).

GBP/USD's correction from 1.3265 short term top extended lower to 1.3000 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.3000 will bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2961) and possibly below. On the upside, firm break of 1.3265 resistance will resume larger rally to 1.3364 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 38.2% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3141 from 1.2298 at 1.3364. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2664 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.2298 support holds, rise from 1.0351 long term bottom is expected to continue. The strong break of 55 M EMA (now at 1.2811) is a sign of bullish trend reversal. Yet, break of 1.4248 structural resistance is needed confirm. Otherwise, price actions from 1.0351 could just be part of a consolidation pattern.

USD/CHF recovered to 0.8548 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and more sideway trading could be seen. But further decline will remain in favor as long as 0.8548 resistance holds. Break of 0.8374 will resume the fall from 0.9223 to retest 0.8332 low. Decisive break there will indicate larger down trend resumption. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 0.8548 resistance will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.8747 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.9223 as the second leg. Strong support could be seen from 0.8332 to bring rebound. Yet, overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8332, however, will resume larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Rejection by 55 M EMA suggest that this fall is in progress. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.

AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6621 last week but drew support from 38.2% retracement of 0.6348 to 0.6823 at 0.6642 and recovered. Upside is capped below 0.6766 resistance and initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.6621 and sustained trading 0.6642 will target 61.8% retracement at 0.6529. Nevertheless, break of 0.6766 will bring retest of 0.6823 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. Firm break of 0.6798/6870 resistance zone will target 0.7156 resistance. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 0.6169/6361 to bring rebound.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It's unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.3439 continued last week but failed to break through 1.3617 resistance decisively. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and another fall remains in favor. On the downside, below 1.3545 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.3439 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.3617 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) is extending with another falling leg. While deeper decline could be seen, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.

GBP/JPY fell further to 183.70 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook will stay cautiously bearish as long as 189.72 resistance holds. Below 183.70 will resume the fall from 193.45 to retest 180.00 low. Firm break there will extend whole decline from 208.09 to 175.94 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

In the longer term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 208.09 is at least a medium term top. It's still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But it's at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 169.35).

EUR/JPY's fall from 163.86 extended lower last week but turned sideway after hitting 155.45. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook will stay cautiously bearish as long as 160.01 support turned resistance holds. Below 155.45 will bring retest of 154.40 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1785.41 to 153.15 support, and possibly further to 152.11 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It's still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 145.95).

EUR/GBP was still bounded in consolidation above 0.8399 last week and outlook is unchanged. Stronger recovery might be seen but upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8624 to 0.8399 at 0.8485. Break of 0.8399 will bring retest of 0.8382 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, sustained break of 0.8485 will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.8538 and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.8624 resistance holds, down trend from 0.9267 is expected to continue. Firm break of 0.8382 will target 0.8201 (2022 low). However, decisive break of 0.8624 will indicate that such down trend has completed, and turn outlook bullish for 0.8764 resistance next.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD retreated after edging higher to 1.6629 last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. For now, the favored case remains that corrective fall from 1.7180 has completed at 1.6256 already. On the upside, above 1.6629 will resume the rebound for retesting 1.7180 high. However, firm break of 1.6457 minor support will dampen this week and turn bias back to the downside for 1.6256 again.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by the deeper than expected fall from 1.7180. Yet as long as 1.5996 support holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage. Firm break of 1.7180 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5999) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

EUR/CHF edged lower to 0.9305 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first, and outlook remains bearish as long as 0.9444 resistance holds. On the downside, below 0.9305 will resume the fall from 0.9579 to retest 0.9209 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, decisive break of 0.9444 will argue that the fall from 0.9579 has completed as a corrective move. Intraday bias will be turned bias to the upside for 0.9579.

In the bigger picture, medium term corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 0.9928 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.