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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0608; (P) 1.0636; (R1) 1.0653; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside at this point. Current fall is part of the decline from 1.1138. Next target is 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536 next. On the upside, above 1.0664 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Current fall from 1.1138 is seen as the third leg. While deeper decline is would be seen to 1.0447 and possibly below. Strong support should emerge from 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 to complete the correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2421; (P) 1.2460; (R1) 1.2484; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral first and more consolidations could be seen. But recovery recovery should be limited by 1.2577 minor resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, firm break of 1.2419 will resume the decline from 1.2892 to 100% projection of 1.2892 to 1.2538 from 1.2708 at 1.2354. Firm break there will target 161.8% projection at 1.2207 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Fall from 1.2892 is seen as the third leg. Deeper decline would be seen to 1.2036 support and possibly below. But strong support should emerge from 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2452 at 1.1417 to complete the correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9101; (P) 0.9126; (R1) 0.9141; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. But further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9151 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9268.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom as tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rise would be seen as long as 0.8728 support holds. But upside should be limited by 0.9243 resistance, at least on first attempt. However, decisive break of 0.9243 will argue that the trend has already reversed and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.34; (P) 153.89; (R1) 154.83; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend is in progress for 155.20 fibonacci projection level next. On the downside, below 153.37 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3744; (P) 1.3769; (R1) 1.3814; More...

USD/CAD's rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rally from 1.3176 would target 100% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3540 from 1.3477 at 1.3841. On the downside, below 1.3724 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6422; (P) 0.6458; (R1) 0.6477; More...

AUD/USD's break of 0.6442 support confirms resumption of whole fall from 0.6870. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6643 at 0.6378. Decisive break there will pave the way to 0.6269 low, and possibly further to 100% projection at 0.6215. On the upside, above 0.6429 minor resistance will turn intraday bias and bring consolidations, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which is still in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Dollar is capitalizing on its strong position and extends its rally om Asian session today, as risk aversion grips global markets. US stocks, which initially showed gains overnight, ultimately closed significantly lower as Treasury yields climbed in response to robust economic data. The sentiment continued in Asia, with major markets opening lower, and followed by extended decline. lower open.

Amid these developments, China's economic data presented a mixed picture, providing little to uplift overall market sentiment. Strong Q1 GDP from China was overshadowed by a batch of weak March data. Further dampening sentiment, S&P Global downgraded the credit rating of Chinese developer Longfor from BBB- to BBB+ yesterday, assigning a negative outlook. These developments in China have cast a shadow over global market sentiment.

In the currency markets, Dollar stands out as the strongest performer of the day, with Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollar also showing resilience. Conversely, Australian Dollar is facing the most significant pressure, followed by New Zealand Dollar and Swiss Franc. Euro and Sterling are holding middle ground as market participants shift their focus to upcoming economic releases, including UK employment data and wage growth, German ZEW economic sentiment, and Canadian CPI.

Technically, AUD/CAD's extended decline affirms that case that corrective recovery from 0.8725 has completed with three waves up to 0.9005. Deeper decline would be seen to 0.8799 support next. Firm break there will argue that whole fall from 0.9063 is ready to resume through 0.8725 support. Let's see if Canadian CPI today would prompt the downside breakout.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -2.22%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.93%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.42%. Singapore Strait Times is down -1.29%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0089 at 0.875. Overnight, DOW fell -0.65%. S&P 500 fell -1.20%. NASDAQ fell -1.79%. 10-year yield rose 0.129 to 4.628.

Fed's Daly stresses patience on rate cuts, no urgency required

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized a cautious approach to interest rate reductions. Given the current economic and labor market strength, coupled with persistently high inflation rates, she highlighted the lack of urgency to lower interest rate policy.

"The worst thing to do is act urgently when urgency is not required," Daly remarked at an event.

Daly also expressed her reservations about the consequences of misjudging the necessary intensity of policy adjustments. She requires more evidence of inflation consistently moving towards 2% target before considering easing monetary policy.

China's GDP grows 5.3% yoy in Q1, but March data weak

China's GDP grew 5.3% yoy in Q1, above expectation of 5.0% yoy. Comparing to Q4, GDP grew 1.6% yoy. By sector, primary industry was up 3.3% yoy, secondary industry rose 6.0% yoy, tertiary industry rose 5.0% yoy.

In March, retail sales rose 3.1% yoy, below expectation of 5.1% yoy. Industrial production rose 4.5% yoy, below expectation of 6.0% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 4.5% ytd yoy, above expectation of 4.3%.

USD/CNH is steady after the release with focus on 7.2815 resistance. firm break there will resume whole rebound from 7.0870 and target 100% projection of 7.0870 to 7.2318 from 7.1715 at 7.3163. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 7.2354 support holds, in case of retreat.

Looking ahead

UK employment and German ZEW economic sentiment are the main focus in European session. Later in the day, Canada CPI will take center stage. US will release housing starts and building permits, and industrial production.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6422; (P) 0.6458; (R1) 0.6477; More...

AUD/USD's break of 0.6442 support confirms resumption of whole fall from 0.6870. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6643 at 0.6378. Decisive break there will pave the way to 0.6269 low, and possibly further to 100% projection at 0.6215. On the upside, above 0.6429 minor resistance will turn intraday bias and bring consolidations, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which is still in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Economic Indicators Update

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below $68,000 and $65,000.
• BTC is facing hurdles near $68,000 and a bearish trend line on the 4-hour chart.
• Crude oil price corrected gains below $86.20.
• Gold price also dipped below the $2,380 and $2,365 support levels.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price failed to stay above $68,000 and started a fresh decline amid a rise in Israel-Iran tensions. BTC traded below the $66,000 and $65,000 support levels to move into a short-term bearish zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price traded below a key bullish trend line with support at $68,550. It even settled below the $67,000 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4 hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4 hours).

Finally, it tested the $60,000 zone and recently started a decent recovery wave. There was a move above the $64,000 and $65,000 levels.

However, it struggled near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $72,874 swing high to the $59,744 low. Immediate resistance is near the $67,000 level. The first key resistance is near the 100 simple moving average (red, 4 hours), $68,000, and a connecting bearish trend line.

The next resistance is near $68,500. A successful close above $68,500 might start another steady increase. In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise toward the $72,500 level.

Immediate support is near the $64,750 level. The next major support sits at $62,850. Any more losses might send the price toward the $60,000 support zone.

Economic Releases

• US Industrial Production for March 2024 (MoM) – Forecast +0.4%, versus +0.1% previous.
• Fed's Williams speech.

China's GDP grew 5.3% yoy in Q1, above expectation of 5.0% yoy. Comparing to Q4, GDP grew 1.6% yoy. By sector, primary industry was up 3.3% yoy, secondary industry rose 6.0% yoy, tertiary industry rose 5.0% yoy.

In March, retail sales rose 3.1% yoy, below expectation of 5.1% yoy. Industrial production rose 4.5% yoy, below expectation of 6.0% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 4.5% ytd yoy, above expectation of 4.3%.

USD/CNH is steady after the release with focus on 7.2815 resistance. firm break there will resume whole rebound from 7.0870 and target 100% projection of 7.0870 to 7.2318 from 7.1715 at 7.3163. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 7.2354 support holds, in case of retreat.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized a cautious approach to interest rate reductions. Given the current economic and labor market strength, coupled with persistently high inflation rates, she highlighted the lack of urgency to lower interest rate policy.

"The worst thing to do is act urgently when urgency is not required," Daly remarked at an event.

Daly also expressed her reservations about the consequences of misjudging the necessary intensity of policy adjustments. She requires more evidence of inflation consistently moving towards 2% target before considering easing monetary policy.