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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2602; (P) 1.2627; (R1) 1.2663; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidations from 1.2574 is extending. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.6905) holds. Below 1.2574 will resume the fall from 1.2892 to 1.2517 structural support first. Decisive break there will suggest that rise from 1.2036 has completed at 1.2892 already, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. But upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2517 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8977; (P) 0.8986; (R1) 0.9004; More....

USD/CHF is staying in consolidation below 0.9019 temporary top and intraday bias stays neutral. Another retreat might be seen but downside should be contained by 0.8884 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Break of 0.9019 will resume larger rally from 0.8332. Next target is 100% projection projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9062.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom as tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rise would be seen as long as 0.8728 support holds. But upside should be limited by 0.9243 resistance, at least on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6518; (P) 0.6532; (R1) 0.6555; More....

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Break of 0.6503 support will indicate that larger fall from 0.6870 is ready to resume, and turn bias to the downside for 0.6442 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6633 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3567; (P) 1.3590; (R1) 1.3610; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral with focus on 1.3612 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 1.3176 towards 1.3897 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 1.3419 support will argue that rebound from 1.3176 has completed. Near term outlook will be turned bearish for 1.3357 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.54; (P) 191.15; (R1) 191.94; More.....

GBP/JPY is extending consolidation below 193.51 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 187.94 support holds. On the upside, break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 178.32 to 191.29 from 187.94 at 195.95, which is close to 195.86 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), and is in progress for long term resistance (2015 high). Break of 187.94 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.54; (P) 163.88; (R1) 164.43; More...

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation from 165.33 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside of current retreat should be contained by 55 4H EMA (now at 163.41) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 153.15 to 163.70 from 160.20 at 166.71. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA will turn bias to the downside for deeper fall to 160.20 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low), which is still in progress. Next target is 169.96 (2008 high). Break of 160.20 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8567; (P) 0.8576; (R1) 0.8586; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral with current retreat. But further rise will remain in favor as long as 0.8529 minor support holds. Rebound from 0.8497 is seen as at least correcting the fall from 0.8764. Above 0.8601 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8497 to 0.8577 from 0.8503 at 0.8632.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.9267 has completed, despite loss of downside momentum as seen in D MACD. As long as 0.8713 resistance holds, the down trend will remain in favor to resume through 0.8491 low at la later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6538; (P) 1.6569; (R1) 1.6602; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.6439 support holds. On the upside, above 1.6677 will target 1.6742 first. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 1.6127 and target 1.6844 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9710; (P) 0.9729; (R1) 0.9767; More..

EUR/CHF is staying below 0.9786 temporary top despite today's recovery. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. but downside of retreat should be contained by 0.9630 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9786 will resume the rally from 0.9252 towards 1.0095 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.9252 already, on bullish convergence condition in W MACD. Rise from there would now target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.9535) holds.

Swiss Franc traded broadly lower in Asian session today, amidst a backdrop of general market inactivity with all other major pairs and crosses staying inside Monday's range. Still, it remains to be seen whether the Franc's sell-off could extend beyond last week's lows, a downturn initiated by SNB's unexpected rate cut.

Meanwhile, Euro and Sterling appears to be benefitting slightly from buying against Swiss Franc. But Aussie is slightly stronger Australian despite weak consumer sentiment data. These contrast the softer performance of Dollar and Yen alongside Franc.

As European session presents limited data, with German Gfk consumer sentiment being an exception, market participants are shifting their focus towards the US, where upcoming durable goods orders and consumer confidence data may inject some much-needed volatility into the markets.

Technically, Bitcoin is back above 70k handle with this week's strong rebound. The development argues that correction from 73812 might have completed at 60769 already, after drawing support from medium term channel. Next focus is 73812 high and firm break there will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 38496 to 73812 from 60769 at 82594.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.14%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.25%. China shanghai SSE is down -0.52%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.91%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0060 at 0.742. Overnight, DOW fell -0.41%. S&P 500 fell -0.31%. NASDAQ fell -0.27%. 10-year yield rose 0.035 to 4.253.

Fed's Bostic eyes single rate cut in 2024, credits robust economy

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated his anticipation just one interest-rate reduction within this year. Also, the first cut could happen later than previously envisioned, as Fed can "afford to be patient" as long as the economy holds up.

Bostic's noted that as long as the economic indicators—such as GDP growth, employment rates, and business activity—remain robust, "I'm not in a hurry to get inflation down to 2%."

"If it continues on a trajectory, I'm happy with that," he added.

Australia's Westpac consumer sentiment dips -1.8% mom, RBA triggers sharp decline

In March, Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index in Australia dropped by -1.8% mom to 84.4. This downturn is attributed to renewed concerns about the near-term economic outlook, with fears regarding inflation and interest rate hikes only easing marginally.

The survey revealed a significant shift in sentiment in responses to the RBA's latest policy decision. Sentiment scores were markedly higher at 94.9 for those surveyed before the decision, compared to a lower 79.3 for those surveyed afterwards.

The persistence of consumer concerns, notably regarding inflation and interest rates, was evident. Many had harbored hopes for a more reassuring update from RBA on these fronts. Yet, the central bank's governor did not entirely dismiss the prospect of additional rate hikes. This stance likely contributed to dampening consumer sentiment, as individuals grappled with the implications for personal finances and economic conditions at large.

Looking ahead

Germany Gfk consumer sentiment is the only feature in European session. Later in the day, US will release durable goods orders, hour price index and consumer confidence.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9710; (P) 0.9729; (R1) 0.9767; More..

EUR/CHF is staying below 0.9786 temporary top despite today's recovery. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. but downside of retreat should be contained by 0.9630 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9786 will resume the rally from 0.9252 towards 1.0095 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.9252 already, on bullish convergence condition in W MACD. Rise from there would now target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.9535) holds.

Economic Indicators Update