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• Market expectations call for a significant deceleration in job growth (58k–65k), with sticky Average Hourly Earnings (+0.4% m/m) being the "danger zone" for potential stagflation.
• A strong NFP (> 100k) could see DXY rise toward 100.40 as rate cuts are priced out; a weak NFP (< 50k) could push DXY down toward 98.00 on bets of a Fed pivot.
• Dow Jones (DJIA) Implications, a moderate, "Goldilocks" number (70k–90k) would support equities, while a "Stagflation" shock (low jobs, high wages) or negative NFP would likely trigger a fresh sell-off.

Markets are gearing up for the March NFP release and yet focus ahead of the meeting is largely focused on the situation in the Middle East. Despite this, the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report remains the fundamental "north star" for the Federal Reserve.

Here is your preview for the March 6 jobs report and its expected impact on the markets.

The Macro Backdrop: War and AI reality checks

The market narrative has shifted violently this week. The "AI honeymoon" period of early 2026 met a jarring reality as President Trump signaled that "Operation Epic Fury", the joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran could be a protracted engagement.

With the Strait of Hormuz facing potential blockades and Brent crude surging into the $80s, the "low-hire, low-fire" labor regime is being tested by a new inflation shock channel: energy.

The immediate focus for Friday is whether the cooling labor market will provide the Fed enough cover to cut rates despite these rising inflationary risks.

NFP Consensus and Key Data Points

Market expectations for the data (to be released March 6) suggest a significant deceleration from the previous month’s surprise strength:

• NFP Headline Forecast: 58k – 65k (Down from January’s 130k).
• Unemployment Rate: Expected to hold steady or edge up to 4.4%.
• Average Hourly Earnings: Forecasted at +0.4% m/m. This is the "danger zone" for the Fed; sticky wage growth combined with high oil prices creates a stagflationary headache.
• The "ADP Bellwether": Wednesday's ADP private payrolls came in at 63k, slightly beating the 50k estimate. However, a downward revision to the previous month’s figures dampened any bullish dollar sentiment, setting a cautious stage for Friday.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Implications for the US Dollar Index (DXY)

The DXY has been oscillating near the 99.50 resistance level, buoyed by safe-haven flows due to the Iran conflict.

• Bullish Scenario (NFP > 100k): A surprise beat would likely be interpreted as a sign of economic resilience. Traders would price out a March rate cut, potentially propelling the DXY toward the 100.40 barrier. In a "war economy," a strong labor market allows the Fed to keep rates high to fight energy-driven inflation.
• Bearish Scenario (NFP < 50k): A significant miss would validate the "hard landing" fears. The DXY could retreat toward the 98.00 support level as markets bet the Fed will be forced to pivot to support the economy, despite the geopolitical noise.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, March 4, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Implications for the Dow Jones (DJIA)

The Dow has recently endured a "tailspin," including a 1,200-point intraday slide earlier this week. It currently hovers around the 48,500 mark.

• The "Goldilocks" Outcome (70k – 90k): Equities would likely cheer a moderate number. It would suggest the economy is cooling enough to justify future easing without signaling a total collapse in consumer demand. This could see the Dow reclaim the 49,000 handle.
• The "Stagflation" Shock (Low Jobs + High Wages): If payrolls miss (under 50k) but wage growth remains hot (+0.5% or higher), the Dow could face a fresh sell-off. This scenario traps the Fed: they cannot cut rates to help the economy because wages and oil are fueling inflation.
• The "Recession" Fear (Negative NFP): Any print near zero or negative would likely trigger a flight from equities into bonds and gold, as the narrative shifts from "geopolitical volatility" to "fundamental economic decay."

Dow Jones Daily Chart, March 4, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

The market will try to determine if the American worker is strong enough to withstand both the "Epic Fury" of geopolitics and the quiet encroachment of AI on traditional roles.

Gold bulls have long been waiting for geopolitical troubles to justify the metal's record prices.

However, markets often play rough games with high expectations, as we recently saw with Nvidia and Microsoft earnings. This aligns with the adage "Buy the rumor, sell the news."

Similar profit-taking moves have previously occurred in silver, platinum, and palladium, so investors might have thought gold would be exempt, given its reputation as a true safe-haven.

However, the recent unexpected market behavior in relation to geopolitical conflict is surprising. Despite ongoing tensions and heavy military activity in the Middle East, stocks actually rallied after Trump assured the protection of the Strait of Hormuz.

Risk assets are decidedly rebounding, with cryptocurrencies surging to monthly highs as well as global Stock Markets; This proves how unusual these war flows have been.

So, why are safe havens selling off?

The US Department of Defense has certainly demonstrated its capabilities to rapidly damage key Iranian positions, alongside the Israeli Air Force.

Investors fear a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, so the idea of shorter operations is providing a sense of relief, as reflected in the market.

Investors also just received yet another report of US economic strength with another beat in Services PMI (56.1 vs 53.5 estimates), along with firming Private ADP Employment. Difficult to justify metal-boosting rate cuts with such solid data.

Friday will provide more clarity on that aspect with the monthly NFP data for February; Expect this one to rock Market expectations again!

Let’s conduct a multi-timeframe analysis of gold, as its recent price action has formed a double top. Will this signal the start of a real downtrend?

Gold (XAU/USD) Multi-timeframe analysis

Weekly Chart

Gold Weekly Chart, March 4, 2026, Source: TradingView

Gold is now facing high-importance hurdles ahead.

After failing to regain its January $5,600 top despite the fundamental shift, sellers could now take the upper hand. This could particularly be the case when looking at the Weekly RSI forming a bearish divergence.

However, a counter-argument could maintain demand for Gold – Remaining above its Key weekly pivot zone, particularly above $5,100, proves that the action can still remain in balance on the higher timeframe.

Any break lower will also see streaks of support, with the most immediate major support a the December highs around $4,550.

Gold Daily Chart

Gold Daily Chart, March 4, 2026, Source: TradingView

Gold sends out a more gloomy picture on the Daily timeframe, with the two recent bearish candles located at relative spikes forming a double-top.

While today's small rebound shows hesitancy, looking forward, as long as bulls can't manage to overtake the $5,379 highs from yesterday, technicals point to downside ahead.

Crossing back below $5,100 would allow sellers to re-take control of the short-term action, hinting at a retest of the mid-Feb lows ($4,844).

Breaking this level would then mark an official re-entry within the 2025 bull channel – $4,200 is its current lower bound (however it remains far from now).

Levels of interest for Gold trading:

Support Levels:

• $5,100 Major Pivot turned support (Short-term: sellers in control below – Testing)
• $4,850 to $4,900 Key Support (Mid-Feb Lows)
• Pivotal Support and December record $4,400 to $4,500 (Bearish below)
• Channel lows $4,200

Resistance Levels:

• $5,250 Pivot Zone (+/- $50)
• $5,400 Wartime Resistance
• Current All-time Highs Resistance – $5,500 to $5,600

Gold 4H Chart

Gold 4H Chart, March 4, 2026, Source: TradingView

Gold is now rejecting its intraday key 50-period moving average acting as resistance.

A key test of the upward trendline will provide a last chance for bulls to re-take the short-term hand, before the double top materializes into a more consequential correction.

Watch for a break and 4H close below $5,100.

Safe Trades!

• US Stock Benchmarks absolutely smash previous days selling with huge rallies today.
• Since Trump's security pledge in the Middle East, Stocks have been exploding.
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500.

Global Stock Indexes remain undefeated, and no war nor Capital Market trouble seems to be providing damage in their ever-resilient rise.

No analyst or traders could have predicted such a resilient behavior from Investors amid the ongoing heavy War currently ongoing in the Middle East.

US and Israeli armies are certainly striking rough blows to the Islamic regime's military capacities; Recent communication from both the US President and Secretary of War are reassuring Participants in the fact that the ongoing conflict has low probabilities of repeating mistakes seen in Iraq or Afghanistan: A prolonged and damaging war, without much to count for it.

As expressed in our week-opening analysis, two of the most anxiety-prone elements in this war are how long it takes, and how heavy of an impact it has on Oil prices.

For now, the length of the war is projected to be lasting around 4 to 5 weeks – this still has the potential to change, but current updates sound optimistic.

On Oil, the commodity has somewhat stabilized in the $72 to $75 range (WTI). Yes, ships are scared to pass through Strait of Hormuz but the outlook isn't so grim right now with multiple reports of a damaged Iranian Navy.

Any explosion in Oil prices or complication in operations has the potential to dampen mood significantly – Black Gold is certainly the most volatility-prone element of them both.

Another element helping Equities is this morning's streak of positive US data, including a strong beat on US Services PMIs and ADP private employment.

US Data this morning – MarketPulse Economic Calendar

This also tags along with strong rebounds in Global Stock Indexes, also starkly rebounding today with the Nikkei closing up 2% and European Benchmarks up about the same.

Let's spot if this move has the potential to last by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Current Session's Stock Heatmap

Current picture for the Stock Market (11:24 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 4, 2026

Defensive Blue Chips, traditionals and Energy Stocks are now seeing rejection as Wall Street turns a new rush towards Tech.

High-beta semiconductors and softwares are marking a decent recovery in the past week and leading Equities in their resilient run – They could indeed sustain less damage from any effect from a prolonged war; Actually, they would mostly benefit from high information flows and military need for technologies!

Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels

Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – March 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The DJIA is now breaking out of its descending channel but will face key hurdles at the 49,000 resistance zone and its 4H 50-period Moving Average just below (48,975).

The morning rally is nothing short of impressive, but some profit-taking seems to be going through as traders look for quick-trades amid ongoing uncertainty – And that is certainly a way to protect trading accounts!

• Rejecting the 4H MA would mark a rough stall in the middle of the range, indicative of further potential downside ahead.
• Breaking back above however relaunches hopes for an all-time high run!

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 4H 50-period MA – 48,975
• 49,000 to 49,250 Key psychological resistance
• January ATH Resistance 49,500 to 49,700
• Index All-Time highs 50,512

Support Levels

• November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Morning Support
• Psychological Pivot at 48,000
• August Support 47,500 to 47,650
• 47,000 Next Main support
• 45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)

Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels

Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – March 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Nasdaq is indeed flexing its muscles by rebounding back above the key 25,000 level and bulls are not letting the Index correct.

Breaking the 200-period MA (25,170) would confirm the breakout and should hint at a swift run towards 25,500 – This stands as long as sentiment remains positive.

Keep a close eye on the tech sector!

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 4H 200-period MA 25,170
• Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,170 (testing)
• 25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistance

Support Levels

Mini-intraday Pivot 24,750

• 24,400 to 25,600 Key Support (Range Support)
• February Support 24,150 to 24,300 – Morning lows
• October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

S&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels

S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – March 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The S&P 500 confirms its powerful range yet again, and will now face a strong test at the 6,900 Mid-Range resistance.

Closing back above would point to a quick test of the 6,950 resistance.
Rejecting it however could easily retest previous session's trough at 6,710.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900 (testing)
• Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975
• Current ATH 7,020
• All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)

Support Levels

• Mini-Pivot 6,820 to 6,840
• 6,770 to 6,800 Psychological Support
• Previous day lows 6,710
• February lows 6,710 to 6,730
• 6,680 to 6,700 Next Support
• 6,400 Major psychological support

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!

Nasdaq-100: ⬆️ Buy

• Nasdaq-100 reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 25455.00

Nasdaq-100 index recently reversed from the support zone between the multi-month support level 24270.00 (which has been reversing the price from September), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.

The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier short-term correction 2 of the higher order impulse wave (3) from February.

Given the clear daily downtrend, Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 25455.00 (top of the earlier wave 1).

USDCHF: ⬇️ Sell

• USDCHF reversed from resistance zone
• Likely to fall to support level 1.5765

USDCHF currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the key resistance level 0.7830 (former multi-month support from September), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from January.

The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the impulse waves C of the intermediate ABC correction (4) from January.

Given the strong daily downtrend, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.5765 (former support from July).

• DAX is attempting a recovery following a 6% drop.
• The global energy shock is fueling stagflation anxiety, notably causing a record 12% plummet in the South Korean KOSPI index.
• Market performance is mixed: Technology and defense stocks are providing upward momentum, while disappointing earnings from Adidas and Bayer are weighing on the index.
• The technical outlook is bullish, with buyers returning to test the 24000 psychological level, hinting at a potential move to the upside.

The DAX index is attempting a recovery today following two sessions of aggressive selling driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Market sentiment saw a slight boost after President Trump suggested the US Navy might escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic chokepoint currently remains at a standstill, causing significant disruptions to global energy flows.

Despite the diplomatic overtures, oil prices have continued their ascent climbing 14.5% so far this week, while European natural gas prices have surged a staggering 60% over the last two days following the shutdown of Qatari LNG facilities and the closure of the Strait.The economic impact of these spikes is being felt acutely across energy-dependent regions.

While the DAX shed 6% over the last two sessions, the South Korean Kospi plummeted 12% overnight, reflecting a growing global anxiety over potential stagflation. This is the KOSPI benchmarks largest drop on record as South Korea is heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil.

Over two days the tech-heavy index has lost more than 18% of its value while the currency KRW has slumped to a 17-year low.

The trajectory of the market now hinges on the duration of the conflict and whether energy prices ease. A prolonged standoff increases the risk of a sustained energy shock, which could cement the stagflationary pressures currently being priced in by traders.

According to sources, Qatar would need 2 weeks to restart gas liquefaction after a full shutdown. Once restarted, Qatar would need at least another 2 weeks to reach full capacity, which could lead to a temporary shock in prices if the conflict was to reach a swift conclusion.

Performance within the DAX remains a mixed bag of sector-specific reactions and corporate earnings.

Technology stocks are providing some upward momentum, with Infineon Technologies rising 3.7%, while defense stocks are seeing a modest recovery.

However, individual earnings reports are weighing on the index; Adidas shares dropped 7% on disappointing results (now down 5%), and Bayer fell 4.76% after providing a weak 2026 profit outlook that overshadowed a fourth-quarter earnings beat.

Source: LSEG

Trade Idea - Potential DAX Buy Opportunity

The DAX selloff saw the index drop below the psychological 24000 handle for the first time since December 2025.

The foray has proved short-lived thus far with buyers returning as the index tested the descending channel it broke out of in December 2025.

On the daily chart, the current daily candle is eyeing a close back above 24000 while at the same time printing an inside bar hammer candle.

This would hint at a move to the upside in the days ahead.

DAX Index Daily Chart, March 4, 2026

Source: TradingView

For those looking to get involved, we drop down to a one-hour chart.

Price is caught between the 20 and 50-day MAs with a retest of the 24000 handle presenting the best risk to reward opportunity for would be bulls.

If such a pullback does not materialize, traders may wait for a break of the 50-Day MA at 24210 and look for an opportunity to get involved with targets resting at the 100-day MA around 24700 and potentially 25000 as well.

DAX Index, One-Hour Chart, March 4, 2026

Source: TradingView

The ISM Services index rose sharply in February, climbing 2.3 points to 56.1. This marks the highest reading since mid-2022 and extends the expansion streak to 20 consecutive months. Growth also broadened across industries, with 14 reported expansions, up from 11 in January.

The supplier deliveries index remained in expansionary territory for a 15th straight month, edging down slightly to 53.9. Readings above 50 continue to signal slower deliveries, consistent with firmer demand conditions and ongoing capacity constraints in parts of the services economy.

New Orders rebounded forcefully in February, jumping 5.5 points to 58.6. This follows January’s pullback and suggests that demand momentum has recovered. Business activity also strengthened further, rising to 59.9, its highest level since late 2022.

New export orders staged a notable turnaround, surging back into expansionary territory to 57.2 after January’s sharp contraction. This rebound suggests that the earlier weakness tied to trade frictions and travel disruptions may have been temporary, though volatility remains elevated.

Price pressures moderated, but remain intense. The prices index fell 3.6 points to 63.0, its lowest level in nearly a year, but continues to signal widespread cost increases. Employment improved modestly, rising to 51.8, pointing to continued, albeit measured, job growth in the services sector.

Key Implications

February’s report points to a clear reacceleration in service sector demand, with new orders, business activity, and exports all strengthening meaningfully. Respondents highlighted firm underlying momentum, noting that “stronger consumer demands, interest rate stabilization, improved supply chain and stronger services activity” are driving new business, while others cited demand being pulled forward due to cost pressures from data center and infrastructure investment. The extent of strength in demand in this release likely weakens the case for imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

While price pressures eased modestly in February, they remain elevated and widespread, reinforcing concerns about sticky services inflation. One respondent noted that “costs remain high for technology, facilities, utilities, and contracted services" and that "labor expenses are also increasing due to competitive hiring” while another emphasized that supply chains have adapted but not normalized from a pricing perspective. Combined with slower supplier deliveries, these dynamics suggest inflation risks remain skewed to the upside, supporting a more cautious Federal Reserve stance on near term policy easing.

Markets

Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, markets this week already discounted a first bunch of risks related to energy supply, inflation and other sources of potential damage for the overall economy. A measured assessment simply remains illusive. However, for this kind of integrated risk-off move to reverse, markets need a clear perspective on an end game or an educated guess on how long this uncertainty might last. However this kind of visibility apparently won’t be available anytime soon. In the mean time, all kind of noise and rumors from “well-informed sources” are swirling, pushing markets back and forth. We pick out some. US president Trump ‘engaging’ the US to escort tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and/or providing financial insurance. The NYT reporting Iran indirectly reached out to the CIA to look for terms end the war (later denied by Iran). In the meantime war headlines continuously flashing on the screens, including on Turkey intercepting a projectile fired from Iran. Later, also US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth repeated that they haven’t reached a mission accomplished situation. Of course, the conflict in the Middle East isn’t the only source of uncertainty investors have to cope with. At the start of US dealings, US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that the US might move to a global trade tariff of 15% still this week. Just to be followed by another headline suggesting the EU might be exempt from that US universal tariff, evidently again referring to people familiar with the matter. This chaotic news complex left investors at different markets drawing mixed conclusions. European equities (EuroStoxx 50), after losing abound 6% this week, are rebounding 1.5%. US indices also open with minor gains. Energy markets, a key source of uncertainty and inflation fears, show a mixed picture, with the Dutch gas reference contract easing from €60+/MWh levels to currently trade near €50/Mwh. At the same time, Brent oil holds well north of $80/b. After the recent bear steeping, mirroring the Fed’s and ECB’s inflation concerns, EMU and US interest rate markets apparently reached a first reflation point. German yields are changing between -1 bp (2-y) and +2 bps (30-y). (Much) too early to draw any conclusions. US yields are changing less than 2 bps across the curve. February ADP US private job growth printed at a solid 63k, but was understandably largely ignored. The US Services ISM might face a similar fate later today. On FX markets, the ‘USD safe haven run’ is taking a breather. DXY eases back below 99 (98.8). EUR/USD shows tentative signs of bottoming after touching an new YTD low yesterday (currently 1.1635). The yen also gained modestly (USD/JPY 157.3 from 157.75). Japanese Fin Min Katayama reiterated that the government might act to address excessive currency moves.

News & Views

Czech inflation fell by 0.1% M/M in February with the headline number slowing further below the 2% inflation target: from 1.6% Y/Y to 1.4% Y/Y. Details showed food and non-alcoholic beverage prices falling by 1.5% M/M with annual price growth in that category slowing from 1.3% to 0.4%. Energy prices were flat on the month to be 7.8% lower compared to last year. Underlying core inflation measures remain sticky above the CNB-target, ranging between 2.7% Y/Y and 3.1% Y/Y. Czech goods prices fell 0.5% in February (-0.7% Y/Y) but services inflation remains extremely sticky at 0.5% M/M and 4.5% Y/Y. In the global turmoil, the Czech market didn’t respond to the more benign numbers. Czech National Bank deputy governor Frait today said that recent global developments may limit room for a potential slight easing of Czech monetary policy if major central banks refrain from lowering their interest rates. EUR/CZK holds below first resistance at 24.40 today.

Swiss prices increased for the first time since June, rising by 0.6% M/M in February. On an annual level, price growth remained the same at 0.1%. The monthly increase is due to several factors including rising prices for housing rentals and for air transport. Hotels and other accommodation providers also recorded a price increase, as did international package holidays. Prices for food and vegetable juices fell. Swiss core inflation, excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel rose by 0.2% M/M and 0.4% Y/Y. Goods prices rose by 0.2% M/M (-1.4% Y/Y) while services prices increased by 0.9% M/M (1% Y/Y). It’s the final print before the March SNB meeting. With the policy stuck at the 0% border, focus went to the CHF-rate recently, prompting strong verbal interventions by the central bank. SNB vice-president Martin today repeated that willingness and readiness which is higher given the recent political events. The Swiss franc nevertheless holds below EUR/CHF 0.91 at historically strong levels.

US service sector activity strengthened sharply in February, with the ISM Services PMI rising from 53.8 to 56.1, well above market expectations of 53.8, marking the highest level since July 2022. The data point to a broad-based acceleration in the services economy, which continues to be a key driver of overall US growth.

Underlying components showed strong momentum across demand and activity indicators. The Business Activity index climbed from 57.4 to 59.9, while New Orders surged from 53.1 to 58.6. Employment index also improved, rising from 50.3 to 51.8. Price pressures, however, eased slightly. Prices index declined from 66.6 to 63.0.

According to the ISM, the latest reading indicates the services sector is "heating up", with key activity and order components reaching their strongest levels since 2024. Historically, a Services PMI of 56.1 corresponds to roughly a 2.5% annualized increase in US real GDP.

Full US ISM services release here.