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• GBPUSD maintains weak bias in near term
• Falls from 4-month high
• MACD and RSI suggest horizontal move

GBPUSD climbed to a new four-month high in the previous week, but it reversed lower again, falling beneath the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 1.3140 to 1.2035 at 1.2720.

The next major support level for traders to have in mind is the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2615, with the technical oscillators confirming another bearish wave. The MACD oscillator is falling beneath its trigger line in the positive territory, while the RSI is flattening above the 50 level.

If price action remains above the 50.0% Fibonacci of 1.2590, there is scope to test the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.2720. Clearing this key level would see additional gains towards the four-month peak of 1.2795. This is considered to be a strong resistance area which has been rejected a few times in the past. Rising above it could see prices re-test the 1.3000 round number, taken from the peak on July 27.

If 1.2590 support fails, then the focus would shift to the downside towards 1.2495, which overlaps with the 200-day SMA. If breached, that would increase downside pressure, and perhaps bring about a reversal until the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.2460 and the 50-day SMA at 1.2400. From here, GBPUSD would be on the path towards the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.2300 ahead of the short-term ascending trend line at 1.2200.

Overall, GBPUSD has been bullish since bottoming at 1.2035. However, near-term weakness is expected to remain as long as technical oscillators are still losing some steam. 

Daily Pivots: (S1) 179.99; (P) 180.59; (R1) 181.20; More...

GBP/JPY's rebound from 178.32 accelerates higher today and focus is back on 184.43 resistance. Firm break there will argue that pull back from 188.63 has completed and bring retest of this high. Nevertheless, rejection by 184.43, followed by break of 178.32, will resume the whole fall from 188.63 to 38.2% retracement of 148.93 to 188.63 at 173.46.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 188.63 medium term top are currently seen as a correction to the up trend from 148.93 (2022 low) only. As long as 172.11 resistance turned support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in favor to resume through 188.63 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.11; (P) 155.71; (R1) 156.59; More..

EUR/JPY's breach of 157.67 resistance suggest that rebound from 153.15 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 159.00). On the downside, break of 153.15 will resume whole fall from 164.39 to 61.8% retracement of 139.05 to 164.29 at 148.69.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 164.29 medium term top are tentatively seen as a correction to rise from 139.05 for now. As long as 148.48 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) could still resume through 164.29 at a later stage.

Japanese Yen's decline gained momentum following dovish comments by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda in the post-meeting press conference. Ueda reaffirmed the central bank's readiness to take "additional easing steps if necessary," highlighting the "extremely high" level of uncertainty surrounding the economy.

Addressing the possibility of a policy adjustment in January meeting, Ueda downplayed the likelihood of an abrupt rate hike, stating, "I don't think the chance is high for us to say abruptly that we will hike rates at a subsequent meeting." He also mentioned that "we won't see much new data" to come before the meeting, except branch managers' meeting which will provide insights into regional economies.

Ueda spoke about various policy scenarios under consideration, recognizing the high degree of uncertainty in current economic forecasts. He noted the difficulty in outlining a clear exit strategy from the ultra-loose monetary policy due to the unpredictability of achieving sustainable and stable inflation at the target level. Ueda assured that once the BoJ foresees conditions aligning with their targets, more information will be disclosed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8600; (P) 0.8624; (R1) 0.8660; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral as consolidation from 0.8548 is still extending. Further decline is expected as long as 0.8648 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8548 will resume the decline from 0.8764 to retest 0.8419 low next. However, sustained break of 0.8648 will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. This decline is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Break of 0.8201 will target 100% projection of 0.9499 to 0.8201 from 0.9267 at 0.7969. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8764 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6177; (P) 1.6303; (R1) 1.6383; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6206 is extending. Outlook remains bearish as long as 1.6478 resistance holds. On the downside, firm break of 1.6206 will resume whole fall from 1.7062. Next target is 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6319 from 1.6844 at 1.6106.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6844 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.6000 would bring further fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5343.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9454; (P) 0.9477; (R1) 0.9494; More...

EUR/CHF is still extending the consolidation from 0.9402 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper decline is expected with 0.9543 resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 0.9407 will confirm larger down trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.9995 to 0.9416 from 0.9683 at 0.9325. However, sustained break of 0.9543 will bring further rally back to 0.9683 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish as long as 0.9683 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.9407 (2022 low) will resume long term down trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 (2020 high) to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6687; (P) 0.6711; (R1) 0.6731; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations could be seen first. But further rally is expected as long as 0.6539 support holds. As noted before, fall from 0.7156 could have completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Above 0.6734 will target 0.6894 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.6269 is seen as the third leg of the pattern. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3363; (P) 1.3386; (R1) 1.3422; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3479 support turned resistance holds. Rise from 1.3091 could have completed at 1.3897 already. Sustained trading below 1.3378 support will bring deeper fall to 1.3091 support next.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by deeper then expected fall from 1.3897. But after all, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern that's in progress. Larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0900; (P) 1.0916; (R1) 1.0939; More...

No change in EUR/USD's outlook as consolidation from 1.1008 is still extending. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0722 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.1016 will resume the whole rise from 1.0447 to retest 1.1274 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and below.