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USD/CHF's rally from 0.8851 accelerated higher last week and there is no sign of topping. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 0.9146/60 cluster resistance. On the downside, break of 0.8982 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.8874 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.8551 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the downtrend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rally would be seen to 0.9146 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.8551 at 0.9160). Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. However, decisive break of 0.9146/60 will indicate trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9537.

In the long term picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed. With 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359 intact, outlook is neutral at best.

AUD/USD stays in consolidation above 0.6356 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is expected as long as 0.6520 resistance holds. Break of 0.6356 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is possibly still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, while fall from 0.8006 might extend lower, the structure argues that it's merely a correction to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). In case of downside extension, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal. But still, momentum of the next move will be monitored to adjust the assessment.

USD/CAD's deep decline last week argues that rise from 1.3091 might have completed at 1.3693 already. Fall from there is probably another leg in the corrective pattern from 1.3976 high. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidation above 1.3378 temporary low. But risk stays on the downside as long as 1.3548 resistance holds. Below 1.3378 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.3091 to 1.3693 at 1.3321.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a corrective pattern to the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper decline could be seen as the pattern is now extending. But downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3796 at 1.2991. Rise from 1.2005 is still expected to resume after the correction completes.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3082) holds.

GBP/JPY's fall from 186.75 extended lower last week but recovered after forming a temporary low at 180.78. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. But further decline is expected as long as 183.34 resistance holds. Break of 180.78 will target to 176.29 support next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 186.75 is currently seen as a corrective move only. As long as 176.29 support holds, larger up trend from 123.94 (202 low) should still be in progress. Break of 186.75 will target 195.86 (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 176.29 will confirm medium term topping, and bring lengthier and deeper consolidations.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) in still in progress but started losing upside momentum as seen in W MACD. Further rise will remain in favor, though, as long as 176.29 support holds, to retest 195.86 (2015 high).

EUR/JPY stayed in consolidation above 156.57 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Risk stays on the downside with 158.64 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 156.57 support, and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 156.91) will argue that fall from 159.75 is a larger scale correction. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 151.39 support. Nevertheless, above 158.64 would bring retest of 159.75 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.39 support holds, rise from 114.42 is still expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 139.05 at 163.06. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest long term resistance at 169.96.

In the long term picture, rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 114.42 at 170.07 which is close to 169.96 (2008 high).

EUR/GBP's strong rebound last week raises the chance of bullish trend reversal. Initial bias stays on the upside this week with immediate focus on 0.8700 resistance. Decisive break there carry larger bullish implication and bring stronger rally to 0.8874 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by this resistance will maintain bearish outlook that larger down trend is not over. Break of 0.8629 resistance turned support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8568 support first.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Decisive break there will argue that this decline has completed with three waves down to 0.8491. Rise from 0.8491 could then be another leg inside the pattern that targets 0.8977 and above. However, rejection by 0.8700 will keep the down trend alive for another fall through 0.8491 at a later stage.

In the long term picture, long term range pattern is extending. But rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is expected to resume at a later stage, to 0.9799 (2009 high).

EUR/AUD turned into sideway trading above 1.6452 last week, but upside is capped well below 1.6793 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and outlook stays bearish. On the downside, break of 1.6452 will resume the fall from 1.7062, as a larger scale correction, to 1.6000 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6793 will dampen this view and bring retest of 1.7062 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 is probably correcting whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt.

In the longer term picture, it's still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). But in either case, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5846 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691.

EUR/CHF's strong rebound last week argues that a medium term bottom could be in place at 0.9513, on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for further rally to 38.2% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9513 at 0.9735. Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 0.9873. On the downside, however, below 0.9602 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as the cross is capped well below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9809). That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) could still resume through 0.9407 (2022 low). However, sustained trading above the 55 W EMA will raise the chance that 0.9470 is already a long term bottom. Further rise would then be seen to 1.0095 resistance to indicate bullish trend reversal.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish as it's staying well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0391). Break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming, or the multi-decade down trend is expected to continue.

U.S. Highlights

• The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged at its September meeting, but updated projections showed that the median FOMC member expects rates to remain above 5% through 2024, reinforcing the higher for longer message.
• The economy is likely to feel some drag from the UAW strike, which announced additional action at 38 parts and distribution facilities across 20 states, as contract negotiations continue to progress slowly.
• The theme of “higher-for-longer” had pushed mortgage rates higher, which weighed on both homebuilding activity and existing home sales in August.

Canadian Highlights

• The economic data headline this week was a faster than expected acceleration in inflation in August. Markets are now positioned for another Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate hike in the next six months.
• The BoC is at a crossroads as nascent signs of renewed inflation pressures collide with an economy that is losing its heat. We see enough bending in the Canadian economy to allow the BoC to hold the policy rate at 5.00% in October.
• Retail spending is one example of cooling demand. While sales rebounded modestly in July, they fell in real terms, a trend expected to continue into August. Overall, the consumer is showing signs of losing steam.

U.S. – Higher for Longer

Over the past eighteen months the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates eleven times, bringing the policy rate 5¼ percentage points (ppts) higher. On Wednesday, the FOMC opted to hold rates steady for the second time in the past three meetings, as it fine-tunes its approach to the level it deems sufficiently restrictive to return price stability to the economy. The Fed adopted the same policy decision it implemented in June - a hawkish pause if you will - indicating their expectation that one further rate hike is in the cards for 2023. In response, Treasury yields jumped to their highest level since 2007, with the ten-year yield rising by 12 basis points (bps) on the week to 4.4%, while equities fell with the S&P 500 down 2.3% as of the time of writing.

Accompanying the FOMC decision on Wednesday, the updated summary of economic projections (SEP) showed that the median FOMC member is projecting a de-facto soft landing for the U.S. economy. The median member expects the unemployment rate to rise only 0.3ppts by the end of next year. For reference, the U.S. unemployment rate just rose by 0.3ppts in August alone. The Fed’s expectation that inflation will be at 2.5% by the end of 2024 remained unchanged. However, the number of rate cuts for next year was pulled in, with the median FOMC member expecting the policy rate to be only 25bps below the current level at the end of 2024 - 50 basis points higher than in the June SEP (Chart 1). While these projections are decidedly hawkish, Chair Powell continued to emphasize that the Fed’s future decisions will depend on incoming data and its implications for the trajectory of inflation.

On that front, we saw in the housing data released this week that the interest rate sensitive sector continues to feel the strain of higher rates, as homebuilding activity faltered in August on slowing demand for new homes. With mortgage rates back above 7%, a similar curtailment of demand was seen in existing home sales in August, which declined for a third consecutive month (Chart 2). Price growth, however, has continued to push higher, as the highest mortgage rates in 22 years has left many would-be sellers locked-in to their lower rates, limiting resale supply. This dynamic is being monitored by the Fed but is unlikely to influence monetary policy discussions due to the lagged and proxied measurement of shelter costs in the CPI and PCE indexes.

Looking ahead, there is no shortage of upcoming events that will be on the Federal Reserve’s radar. This includes the UAW strike, which was extended to an additional 38 parts and distribution facilities this morning as negotiations continue to progress slowly. In the most recent round of strike action, the UAW has targeted General Motors and Stellantis, citing negotiation progress with Ford as the reason for the company’s exclusion. This is expected to create additional disruptions on top of the roughly 7.5% hit to U.S. production stemming from the first round of strike action. Also on the horizon is a looming shutdown of the federal government, with only a few days left before the October 1st deadline. Adding to the impacts expected from the end of the moratorium on student debt repayment, it is clear that the Federal Reserve’s data-dependency approach is set to become more challenging over the near-term.

Canada – Inflation Testing the Bank of Canada's Hand

Summer may be coming to an end, but Canada's inflation report just offered up some unwelcome heat. Headline CPI accelerated for a second straight month in August reaching 4.0% year-on-year (y/y). On top of that, core inflation measures increased, which surely rang some alarm bells at the Bank of Canada (BoC). Whether the inflation data is hot or just uncomfortably warm is up for debate, but markets have raised their bets for another interest rate hike down the road. Prior to Tuesday's inflation release, markets were pricing a roughly 20% chance of another quarter-point hike at the October 25th policy meeting. Those odds swiftly increased to 50% post-data, with a full quarter-point hike fully priced by the first quarter of next year (Chart 1). As interest rate expectations rise, the 5-year Government of Canada yield rose to 4.25%, its highest level in 16 years.

Soaring energy prices over the month of August were expected to drive an increase to headline inflation. But it was more than this, as shelter costs accelerated for both renters and homeowners facing higher mortgage payments. There was finally some relief on food prices, which fell for the first time in two years, but still sport the highest year-on-year increase across major CPI categories. On core readings, the average of the BoC's CPI-Trim and CPI-Median measures has moved back to 4.0%, the highest reading since April this year. Any way you slice it, inflation pressures remain broad-based. As shown in Chart 2, the share of components in the CPI basket running at higher than 3% and 5% y/y are considerably higher than pre-pandemic levels, and the highest since the pre-inflation targeting days of the BoC.

The BoC faces a difficult road ahead, as nascent signs of renewed inflation pressures collide with an economy that is losing its heat. Our base case is for the BoC to keep the overnight rate on hold at 5.00% next meeting. However, the BoC will need to see evidence of further slowing in upcoming data to feel comfortable staying on the sidelines. The first such data point was today's pulse check on the consumer. Retail sales for July (+0.3% m/m) came in a touch weaker than Statistics Canada's advance estimate, and broadly in line with our own internal spending data which pointed to a rebound. However, controlling for price effects, retail spending edged down, with further deceleration expected in August. This aligns with our view that the resiliency of the consumer is beginning to fade and will continue to do so into next year.

We see enough bending in the Canadian economy to support a cooling in inflation pressures ahead, with enough time to allow the lagged impacts of monetary policy to continue working through the system. The Bank does have over a month to see how the data unfolds before it's next announcement in late October. The data to watch the most closely include another inflation report, plus data on jobs and wages and the BoC’s surveys of consumers and businesses including measures of inflation expectations. Stay tuned.

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