Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2857; (P) 1.2951; (R1) 1.3034; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral for the moment. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.2847 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 1.3011 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3141 high. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.2847 will argue that larger correction is underway and target 1.2589 support next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3895. Break there will target 1.4248 key long term resistance (2021 high) next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2678 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8563; (P) 0.8588; (R1) 0.8610; More...

Further decline cannot be ruled out in USD/CHF. However, some support could be seen from 100% projection of 0.9439 to 0.8818 from 0.9146 at 0.8525 to bring rebound. Break of 0.8629 minor resistance will turn bias to the downside for 55 4H EMA (now at 0.8683) and above.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.8756 (2021 low) indicates break out from the long term range pattern. For now, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9146 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.8317 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.97; (P) 139.48; (R1) 140.19; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Strong resistance is expected from 55 4H EMA (now at 139.87) to complete the recovery from 137.22. Break of 137.22 and sustained trading below 137.90 resistance turned support will confirm the larger bearish case, and target 127.20 and below. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 4H EMA will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 145.06 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Sustained break of 137.90 resistance turned support should confirm this case and target 127.20 (2023 low) and below. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 145.06 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3142; (P) 1.3193; (R1) 1.3218; More....

USD/CAD is staying in range above 1.3091 and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. With 1.3386 resistance intact, outlook stays bearish. On the downside, break of 1.3091 will larger decline to 61.8% projection of 1.3653 to 1.3115 from 1.3386 at 1.3054. However, firm break of 1.3386 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 are viewed as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) only. But even so, deeper decline is expected as long as 1.3386 resistance holds. Further fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.2758. Meanwhile, break of 1.3386 will be a sign that the correction has completed and bring stronger rally back to retest 1.3976.

Markets

UK markets scaled back Bank of England tightening bets after June CPI numbers. After four consecutive months of substantial upward surprises, they declined more than forecast. At 7.9% Y/Y for the headline reading and 6.9% Y/Y for the core gauge, the UK central bank’s jobs remains far from done though. We stick to our August 50 bps rate hike call even as UK money markets reduced the odds to 50/50. The expected policy rate peak is lowered from 6% to 5.75%. UK Gilts in a daily perspective outperformed vs German Bunds and US Treasuries. UK Gilts yields fell by 10 bps (30-yr) to 19 bps (2-yr). EU and US bonds in a Pavlov-reaction joined the Gilt rally, but eventually retraced their steps. German yields rose by 1.6 bps (2-yr) to 5.2 bps (10-yr), even undoing part of the ECB Knot triggered downleg on Tuesday (neutral comments on outcome September ECB meeting coming from a hawkish voice). From a technical point of view, the German 10-yr yield received support from the 200d moving average which earlier came to the rescue in March, May and June (2x). The uptrend line connecting April/May/June/July lows remains in place as well. US yields ended 0.2 bps (2-yr) to 5.4 bps (30-yr) lower with disappointing housing data playing a temporary role. Sterling underperformed with EUR/GBP temporarily rising towards 0.87 before closing at 0.8657. The King’s money remains in the defensive this morning. Cable fell back below 1.30 to close at 1.2940. EUR/USD closed at 1.1201 from an open at 1.1228, further establishing a topping off pattern after a test of 1.1274 resistance earlier this week. Stock markets ended mixed with the US slightly outperforming. Today’s eco calendar remains thin with US weekly jobless claims the main event. Consensus expects a stabilization around 240k. Prints in the direction of 260k can trigger another dovish market reaction. Corporate earnings can influence trading via risk sentiment. US equity futures are down following misses by Netflix and by Tesla.

News and views

Australian employment again grew at a faster than expected pace in June. The Australian economy added a net 32.6k jobs, down from a 76.5k gain in May, but more than the 15k rise expected. The rise was entirely due to full time job growth. Part-time jobs declined modestly (-6.7k). The unemployment rate stays at 3.5%, near the all-time low (3.4%) reached in October last year. The number of unemployed people declined 11k. The Australian bureau of statistics assessed that “The rise in employment in June saw the employment-to-population ratio remain at a record high 64.5%, reflecting a tight labour market in which employment has recently increased in line with population growth. In addition to there being over a million more employed people than before the pandemic, a much higher share of the population is employed. In June 2023, 64.5% of people 15 years or older were employed, an increase of 2.1 percentage points since March 2020.” Tight labour market conditions continue to put pressure on the Reserve bank of Australia to further raise its policy rate at the Aug 1 policy meeting, after pausing at 4.1% early July. The Australian 2-y yield jumped 11.9 bps to 3.98% after a decline in line with global market developments of late. The Aussie dollar gained from the AUD/USD 0.6770 area before the data release to currently trade near 0.683.

The People’s Bank of China set its daily fixing for USD/CNY much stronger than expected. According to a Bloomberg survey, the deviation/bias was the strongest since November of last year. The fixing is another sign that the PBOC is unhappy with recent yuan weakness, which at the same time is a ‘logical consequence’ of China keeping a more supportive monetary policy compared to most other major central banks. Aside from the stronger fixing, the PBOC also changed some rules with respect to capital inflows as it allowed banks to borrow more overseas, supporting capital inflows. There was also market talk of large lenders selling foreign currency in the domestic FX market to support the yuan. USD/CNY currently trades near 7.1775 compared to a close near 7.223 yesterday.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6741; (P) 0.6780; (R1) 0.6811; More...

AUD/USD rebounds notably after drawing support from 55 4H EMA, but stays below 0.6894/8 resistance zone. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6898 resistance will firstly confirm resumption of rise from 0.6457. Secondly, that should also confirm completion of the fall from 0.7156 at 0.6457. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.6457 to 0.6898 from 0.6594 at 0.7035, and then 0.7156 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 (2022 low). Break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.6169 to 0.7156 from 0.6457 at 0.7444. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6703) holds.

Australian Dollar is making a notable rebound today, largely supported by strong employment data, rebound in Copper price, and a resurgence in Chinese Yuan. In tandem, New Zealand Dollar is closely trailing the second strongest performer. British Pound languishes as the worst performer, still feeling the drag from yesterday's lower-than-expected UK CPI Data. Dollar and Japanese Yen are also experiencing weakness, seemingly reacting to the extended rally in US stock markets overnight. Euro and Canadian Dollar display mixed performance at the moment.

In an interesting development, People's Bank of China announced an increase in a parameter on cross-border corporate financing under its macro-prudential assessments. This strategic move is aimed at enhancing cross-border financing and continuing to expand the sources of cross-border funds for businesses and financial institutions. Analysts interpret this step as a clear intention to maintain RMB above 7.2 handle.

USD/CNH pull backed sharply from 7.2360 today. But overall technically outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 7.2853 are seen as a corrective pattern for now. Strong support from 55 D EMA (now at 7.132) maintains near term bullishness. As long as 7.1036 cluster support holds (38.2% retracement of 6.810 to 7.2853 at 7.1037), another rise is still in favor through 7.2853 to 7.3745. If realized, resumed selloff in CNH would exert some pressure on Aussie again.

In Asia, Nikkei closed down -1.23%. Hong Kong HSI is down-0.06%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.84%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.02%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0009 at 0.466. Overnight, DOW rose 0.31%. S&P 500 rose 0.24%. NASDAQ rose 0.03%. 10-year yield dropped -0.0047 to 3.742.

BoE Ramsden: CPI inflation remains much too high

BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said yesterday, "CPI inflation has begun to fall significantly but remains much too high. The Monetary Policy Committee has consistently stressed that monetary policy decisions will address the risk of more persistent strength in domestic wage and price settling."

He went on to warn, "If there is evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required."

Ramsden also mentioned BoE's efforts in reducing its holdings of gilts and corporate bonds, which he expects to decrease by a total of GBP 100B by October. However, he pointed out that the central bank has almost completely run off its portfolio of corporate debt, possibly paving way for it to sell more government bonds.

In light of these factors, Ramsden stated, "These factors support a carefully considered increase in the pace of reduction in the stock of gilts in the 12 months ahead." However, he also stressed caution, noting, "I emphasize careful — like the MPC, I want Quantitative Tightening (QT) to set a gradual and predictable pace for unwind and to let it operate in the background, after all."

Japan's export to US up 11.7% yoy in Jun, to EU up 15%, to China down -11%

Japan's exports rose by 1.5% yoy to JPY 8744B in June. The significant rise in exports to US by 11.7% yoy and to EU by 15.0% yoy was offset by the -11.0% yoy decline in exports to China (marking the most significant drop since January).

Rise in US-bound exports was primarily driven by shipments of cars and mining machinery. Meanwhile, dip in exports to China was attributed the decreased shipments of steel, chips, and nonferrous metal, which led to an overall double-digit decline.

Japan's imports contracted by -12.9% yoy to JPY 8701B. The decrease in value of imports is primarily linked to drop in crude, coal, and liquefied natural gas.

As a result, Japan recorded a trade surplus of JPY 43B, the first such instance in nearly two years since July 2021.

In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 3.3% mom to JPY 8269B. Imports rose 0.5% mom to JPY 8822B. Trade balance reported JPY -553B deficit, versus expectation of JPY -550B.

Australia employment grew 32.6k, but demand met by people working more hours

Australian's June employment data showed persistent tightness in the job markets. The 32.6k growth in employment significantly surpassed expectations of 15.0k. Employment-population ratio remained at record high. Monthly hours worked outpaced employment growth, suggesting that labor demand was met by people working more hours.

Among the 32.6k job growth, rise of 39.3k full-time employment was offset by a decrease of -6.7k in part-time roles. Unemployment rate remained steady at 3.5%, below expectation of 3.6%. Participation rate dipped slightly from 66.9% to 66.8%. Monthly hours worked rose 0.3% mom, faster than growth in employment at 0.2% mom.

Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, stated: "The rise in employment in June saw the employment-to-population ratio remain at a record high 64.5 per cent, reflecting a tight labour market in which employment has recently increased in line with population growth."

He further emphasized that the current labour market is stronger than it was prior to the pandemic. Jarvis elaborated, "In addition to there being over a million more employed people than before the pandemic, a much higher share of the population is employed. In June 2023, 64.5 per cent of people 15 years or older were employed, an increase of 2.1 percentage points since March 2020."

Jarvis also highlighted the ongoing demand for labour, saying: "The strength in hours worked since late 2022, relative to employment growth, shows the demand for labour is continuing to be met, to some extent, by people working more hours."

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6741; (P) 0.6780; (R1) 0.6811; More...

AUD/USD rebounds notably after drawing support from 55 4H EMA, but stays below 0.6894/8 resistance zone. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6898 resistance will firstly confirm resumption of rise from 0.6457. Secondly, that should also confirm completion of the fall from 0.7156 at 0.6457. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.6457 to 0.6898 from 0.6594 at 0.7035, and then 0.7156 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 (2022 low). Break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise from 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.6169 to 0.7156 from 0.6457 at 0.7444. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6703) holds.

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Revised
23:50	JPY	Trade Balance (JPY) Jun	-0.55T	-0.66T	-0.78T	-0.77T
01:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence Q2	-3		-4
01:30	AUD	Employment Change Jun	32.6K	15.0K	75.9K	76.5K
01:30	AUD	Unemployment Rate Jun	3.50%	3.60%	3.60%	3.50%
06:00	CHF	Trade Balance (CHF) Jun	4.82B	4.23B	5.48B
06:00	EUR	Germany PPI M/M Jun	-0.30%	-0.40%	-1.40%
06:00	EUR	Germany PPI Y/Y Jun	0.10%	0.00%	1.00%
08:00	EUR	Eurozone Current Account (EUR) May		2.5B	3.6B
12:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 14)		245K	237K
12:30	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Jul		-15.5	-13.7
14:00	USD	Existing Home Sales Jun		4.27M	4.30M
14:00	EUR	Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jul P		-16	-16
14:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage		45B	49B

Total employment: +32.6k from +76.5k (revised up from +75.9k); unemployment rate: 3.5% from 3.5% (revised down from 3.6%); participation rate: 66.8% from 66.9%.

In June, employment gained 32.6k, or 0.2%, slightly higher than Westpac’s forecast for a +25k lift, but well above the market median forecast for a more modest +15k increase. Over the first half of 2023 the pace of employment growth has held up to a remarkable degree, the three-month average change still above +40k/mth. This is much higher than the pace seen over the second half of 2022 (+26k/mth), and almost exactly on par with the pace seen over last year as a whole (+42k).

While the pace of employment growth has shown very few signs of letting up, this has not compromised the quality of jobs growth being seen. Around 86% of new jobs over the last six months have been for full-time work as opposed to part-time work, full-time having risen +218.4k year-to-date compared to the +35.9k year-to-date gain for part-time.

This is not wholly different to the dynamics seen during the earlier stages of employment’s recovery from COVID-19, but it stands out in contrast to the pre-pandemic years, when full-time employment constituted only a slighter majority of jobs growth (~60%).

Emphasising this point further, seasonally adjusted hours worked remains in a strong up-trend, once again exceeding the growth in employment with a 0.3% lift in June. Having risen 3.0% year-to-date, the gains in hours worked is well above what observed over the same period last year (1.9%).

The employment-to-population ratio, after having reached a fresh record high in May, managed to nudge even slightly higher in June, albeit holding flat to one decimal place at 64.5%. The participation rate eased only slightly from its historic high in May, from 66.9% to 66.8%, seeing the labour force grow by a solid 21.8k in June. With employment also lifting strongly during the month, the unemployment rate held near fifty-year lows, at 3.5%. In fact, June’s unemployment print is the second-lowest reading in this cycle, only 0.04ppt above the low observed in October 2022.

Other indicators of labour market slack were also in line with this sentiment. The underemployment rate – which measures those who are employed but wish to work more hours – held at 6.4% in June. Benefiting from the fall in unemployment, the underutilisation rate – which combines unemployment and underemployment – fell slightly to 9.9%.

Also worthy of note, the unemployment rate in NSW fell 0.1ppt to a record low of 2.9%. Declines were also seen in Qld (–0.3ppt to 3.6%); WA (–0.1ppt to 3.6%) and Tas (–0.7ppt to 3.5%), while the unemployment rate held flat in Vic (3.7%) and nudged up slightly in SA (+0.2ppt to 4.2%).

Overall, the June Labour Force Survey has provided yet another robust and well-rounded read on the labour market. The tone of the survey at this stage is consistent with our labour market view, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to only 4.0% by the end of this year, given the near-term resilience from labour demand and robust growth in labour supply.

DXY:

The DXY chart indicates a bearish overall momentum, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward movement towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support at 99.42 is identified as an overlap support, serving as a significant level to watch for potential buying interest. Additionally, there is an intermediate support at 99.65, representing a multi-swing low support.

On the upside, the 1st resistance level at 100.84 is considered a pullback resistance, potentially hindering further upward movement. Furthermore, there is an intermediate resistance at 100.53, recognized as a swing high resistance.

EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD chart currently exhibits a bearish overall momentum, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward movement towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support level at 1.1086 holds significance as a pullback support, coinciding with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level. Additionally, there is an intermediate support level at 1.1175, identified as a swing low support.

Conversely, on the upside, the 1st resistance level at 1.1282 serves as a notable overlap resistance. Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 1.1366 aligns with the 161.80% Fibonacci extension, adding to its significance.

EUR/JPY:

The EUR/JPY chart currently indicates a bullish overall momentum. There is a potential for a bullish bounce off the 1st support level, leading the price towards the 1st resistance.

The 1st support level at 156.11 is identified as a pullback support and aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level. Additionally, the 2nd support level at 155.19 is recognized as an overlap support and coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level.

On the upside, the 1st resistance level at 157.20 represents a multi-swing high resistance. Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 157.95 is also identified as a multi-swing high resistance. These resistance levels may pose challenges to further price advancement.

EUR/GBP:

The EUR/GBP chart currently indicates a bullish overall momentum. There is a potential for a bullish bounce off the 1st support level, leading the price towards the 1st resistance.

The 1st support level at 0.8649 is identified as an overlap support and coincides with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level. Additionally, the 2nd support level at 0.8614 is recognized as an overlap support and exhibits Fibonacci confluence with the 61.80% and 50% Fibonacci Retracement levels.

On the upside, the 1st resistance level at 0.8686 represents a swing high resistance and aligns with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 0.8730 is identified as a multi-swing high resistance and coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level.

GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD chart currently demonstrates a bullish overall momentum, indicating the potential for a continuation of the upward movement towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st support level at 1.2847 is identified as an overlap support, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, thereby providing a strong foundation for potential price bounces. Additionally, the 2nd support level at 1.2686 acts as another overlap support, aligning with the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level.

On the upside, the 1st resistance level at 1.2999 represents a significant pullback resistance, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 1.3143 is characterized as a multi-swing high resistance, adding to its importance.

GBP/JPY:

The GBP/JPY chart currently indicates a bearish overall momentum. There is a potential for a bearish continuation towards the first support level.

The first support level at 179.72 is identified as a multi-swing low support, suggesting its significance in providing potential price stability. Additionally, the second support level at 178.33 exhibits Fibonacci confluence with the -27% Fibonacci Expansion and 145.00% Fibonacci Extension, further emphasizing its potential as a support level.

On the upside, the first resistance level at 181.58 represents a multi-swing high resistance and aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci Projection. Furthermore, the second resistance level at 182.31 is recognized as a swing high resistance and coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement.

USD/CHF:

The USD/CHF currency pair currently demonstrates a bearish overall momentum, suggesting the potential for a continuation of the downward movement towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support level at 0.8529 is significant as it aligns with the 100% Fibonacci Projection. This level may act as a strong support zone, attracting buying interest and potentially halting the price decline. Additionally, the 2nd support level at 0.8445 corresponds to the -61.8% Fibonacci Expansion, further reinforcing its significance as a potential area of support.

On the upside, the 1st resistance level at 0.8759 is identified as a pullback resistance, which may impede upward price movement. It is important to monitor price action around this level, as a failure to break above it could maintain the bearish momentum.

USD/JPY:

The USD/JPY currency pair currently exhibits a bearish overall momentum, indicating the potential for a continuation of the downward movement towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support level at 138.78 is identified as a pullback support and coincides with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. This level is expected to provide a strong foundation for potential price rebounds. Additionally, the 2nd support level at 137.54 acts as an overlap support, further reinforcing its significance in providing potential price support.

On the upside, the 1st resistance level at 139.96 is characterized as an overlap resistance, which could pose a barrier to upward price movement. Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 140.92 also acts as an overlap resistance, adding to its importance in limiting the potential upward movement.

USD/CAD:

The USD/CAD pair is currently showing a strong bearish trend with high confidence, suggesting a potential continuation of the bearish momentum towards the 1st support level.

The 1st line of support is at 1.3099, acting as a swing low support that could potentially halt the bearish movement. Should the price decline further, the 2nd support level at 1.3057, identified as a support level that corresponds to a Fibonacci confluence at the 61.8% projection and 127.2% extension levels, could serve as a robust barrier against further price drop.

On the flip side, if the trend reverses, the 1st resistance at 1.3232, a multi-swing high resistance and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, could challenge the price advancement. A further upward movement could meet the 2nd resistance level at 1.3278, a pullback resistance coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, potentially impeding further price ascension.

AUD/USD:

The AUD/USD pair currently displays a strong bullish trend with high confidence, suggesting a potential continuation of this upward momentum towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st line of support is at 0.6757, recognized as an overlap support and aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This could potentially halt any bearish retracement. If the price descends further, the 2nd support level at 0.6699, another overlap support coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, could serve as a significant rebound zone.

Conversely, if the bullish trend continues, the price may face resistance at the 1st level of 0.6901, identified as an overlap resistance. A further upward trend might encounter the 2nd resistance level at 0.6977, a resistance level which corresponds with a Fibonacci confluence at the 78.6% projection, 161.8% extension and -27% expansion levels. This could potentially hinder the price’s upward movement.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is showing a strong bullish trend with high confidence, primarily due to the price being above a significant ascending trend line, which suggests a potential continuation of the bullish momentum.

If the price starts to retract, the 1st support level is at 0.6246, which is an overlap support coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, providing a potential floor for the price. If the price falls further, the 2nd support level at 0.6109, another overlap support and also the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, could halt further decline.

However, if the bullish momentum continues, the price could face resistance at 0.6305, an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If the price continues to climb and surpasses this level, the next challenge could come from the 2nd resistance level at 0.6403, which is a swing high resistance. These resistance levels could potentially halt the price’s upward movement.

DJ30:

The DJ30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) chart currently exhibits a bullish overall momentum. There is a potential for a bullish bounce off the 1st support level, followed by a potential upward movement towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st support level at 34,957.43 is identified as a pullback support and aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level. Additionally, the 2nd support level at 34,611.92 acts as a pullback support and coincides with the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement level.

On the upside, the 1st resistance level at 35,260.19 represents a swing high resistance. If the price breaks above this level, it could further advance towards the 2nd resistance level at 35,495.01, which is also identified as a swing high resistance. These resistance levels may pose challenges to further price advancement.

GER30:

The GER30 (DAX) chart currently indicates a bearish overall momentum. There is a potential for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support level at 16,005.38 is identified as an overlap support and coincides with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level. Additionally, the 2nd support level at 15,753.24 acts as an overlap support and aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci Projection level.

On the upside, the 1st resistance level at 16,213.38 represents a multi-swing high resistance and coincides with the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement level. Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 16,375.18 is identified as a swing high resistance. These resistance levels may limit further price advancement.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is displaying bearish divergence versus price, indicating a potential rapid decline in price. This further supports the bearish outlook for the GER30 chart.

US500

The US500 (S&P 500) chart currently demonstrates a bearish overall momentum. There is a potential for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support level at 4523.0 is identified as a pullback support and coincides with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level. Additionally, the 2nd support level at 4455.7 acts as an overlap support and aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level.

On the upside, the 1st resistance level at 4577.9 represents a swing high resistance. Furthermore, the 2nd resistance level at 4635.8 is also identified as a swing high resistance. These resistance levels may impede further price advancement.

BTC/USD:

The BTC/USD chart currently indicates a bullish overall momentum. There is a potential for a bullish continuation towards the first resistance level.

The first support level at 29,589 is identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating its significance in providing potential price stability. Additionally, the second support level at 28,202 is considered a pullback support, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement.

On the upside, the first resistance level at 31,232 represents an overlap resistance and exhibits Fibonacci confluence with the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection and 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting its importance as a potential barrier. Furthermore, the second resistance level at 31,817 is recognized as a swing high resistance.

ETH/USD:

The ETH/USD chart demonstrates a bullish momentum, indicating the potential for a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st support level at 1872.11 is considered good due to its status as an overlap support and aligning with the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement level. Additionally, the 2nd support at 1825.50 acts as a multi-swing low support.

On the upside, the 1st resistance level at 1947.61 represents a multi-swing high resistance and coincides with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. Furthermore, the 2nd resistance at 2026.48 is identified as a swing high resistance.

WTI/USD:

The WTI/USD chart currently shows a weak bullish momentum with low confidence. It is suggested that the price could potentially drop to the 1st support in the short term before bouncing back and rising towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st support level is at 73.76, which has been identified as an overlap support. This could potentially provide a rebound point for the price in the event of a further decline.

The 2nd support level is at 72.50, recognized as an overlap support and also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This adds significance to the level as a potential barrier to further price declines.

On the flip side, if the price reverses its course and begins to climb, it may face resistance at 76.99, which is identified as an overlap resistance. This could potentially hinder the price’s upward movement.

A further rise in price might encounter the 2nd resistance at 78.77, another overlap resistance level. This level might act as a barrier to further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

The XAU/USD (Gold) chart currently demonstrates a bullish overall momentum, suggesting the potential for a bullish breakout of the 1st resistance level and a subsequent rise towards the 2nd resistance level.

The 1st support level at 1963.18 is identified as a pullback support, providing a foundation for potential price rebounds. Additionally, the 2nd support level at 1939.25 serves as another pullback support, further reinforcing the bullish outlook.

On the upside, the 1st resistance level at 1979.56 is characterized as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential barrier to upward price movement. However, if the price successfully breaks through this resistance level, it could lead to a bullish surge towards the 2nd resistance level at 2005.72, which is identified as a pullback resistance.

Japan's exports rose by 1.5% yoy to JPY 8744B in June. The significant rise in exports to US by 11.7% yoy and to EU by 15.0% yoy was offset by the -11.0% yoy decline in exports to China (marking the most significant drop since January).

Rise in US-bound exports was primarily driven by shipments of cars and mining machinery. Meanwhile, dip in exports to China was attributed the decreased shipments of steel, chips, and nonferrous metal, which led to an overall double-digit decline.

Japan's imports contracted by -12.9% yoy to JPY 8701B. The decrease in value of imports is primarily linked to drop in crude, coal, and liquefied natural gas.

As a result, Japan recorded a trade surplus of JPY 43B, the first such instance in nearly two years since July 2021.

In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 3.3% mom to JPY 8269B. Imports rose 0.5% mom to JPY 8822B. Trade balance reported JPY -553B deficit, versus expectation of JPY -550B.

Full Japan trade balance release here.