Sample Category Title
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8666; (P) 0.8692; (R1) 0.8708; More...
Outlook in EUR/GBP is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. Further decline is expected as long as 0.8758 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8660 will resume recent decline to 100% projection of 0.8977 to 0.8717 from 0.8874 at 0.8614. Nevertheless, break of 0.8758 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. This is part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Deeper fall would be seen through 0.8545 support. his will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8874 resistance holds.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6182; (P) 1.6261; (R1) 1.6309; More...
Outlook in EUR/AUD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is expected with 1.634 minor resistance intact. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, fall from 1.6785 might be a correction to whole up trend from 1.4281. Break of 1.6134 will target 38.2 retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828, which is inside 1.5254/5976 support zone. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.6354 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6785 high instead.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.4281 (2022 low). Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691 next. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5976 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9726; (P) 0.9740; (R1) 0.9753; More...
Outlook in EUR/CHF is unchanged as choppy decline form 0.9995 could extend lower. But strong support should be seen from 0.9704 to bring rebound. Break of 0.9847 will argue that the fall has completed and turn bias back to the downside. However, firm break of 0.9704 will resume the whole decline from 1.0095 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670.
In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. The pair is also capped below 55 W EMA (now at 0.9963). Down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0850; (P) 1.0870; (R1) 1.0870; More...
Despite some loss of downside momentum as seen in 4H MACD, further decline is still expect3ed in EUR/USD with 1.0941 resistance intact. Fall from 1.1094 short term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 0.9534. Deeper decline would be seen to 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498. On the upside, though, above 1.0941 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.1094 high.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2470; (P) 1.2503; (R1) 1.2560; More...
GBP/USD is still staying in range of 1.2434/2678 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, firm break of 1.2434 will confirm short term topping at 1.2678, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 1.1801 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2678 at 1.1789), as correction to whole up trend from 1.0351. On the upside, however, break of 1.2678 will resume larger up trend from 1.0351 instead.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1801 support holds, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759 will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.1801 will indicate rejection by 1.2759, and bring deeper decline, even as a correction.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8937; (P) 0.8962; (R1) 0.8982; More...
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8993 resistance will confirm short term bottoming at 0.8818, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.9040) and possibly above. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.8767, which is close to 0.8756 long term support, to bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal. Sustained break of 0.9058 support turned resistance will be the first sign of medium term bottoming. However, decisive break of 0.8756 will carry larger bearish implications.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.73; (P) 136.02; (R1) 136.40; More...
Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rally from 133.73 should be on track to retest 137.76/90 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume whole rebound from 127.20. On the downside, break of 133.73 will resume the fall from 137.76 through 133.00 instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3504; (P) 1.3534; (R1) 1.3589; More....
Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again with break of 1.3478 minor support. Overall, it's seen as extending the triangle consolidation pattern from 1.3976. Above 1.3566 will resume the rebound towards 1.3666 resistance and then 1.3860. However, firm break of 1.3313 support will invalidate this view and indicate that deeper correction is underway.
In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3321) holds, up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below the EMA and 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 will raise the chance of bearish reversal. Deeper should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2758 next.
UK payrolled employees dropped -136k in Apr, unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in Mar
UK payrolled employees dropped -0.5% mom, or -136k in April, comparing with March. That is the first decline in total payrolled employees since the COVID pandemic. Comparing with April 2022, payrolled employees rose 1.0% yoy or 297k. Claimant counts rose 46.7k, above expectation of 31.2k. Median monthly pay rose 7.4% yoy.
In the three months to March, unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 3.9%, comparing to the previous quarter. Employment rate rose 0.2% to 75.9%. Average earnings including bonus rose 5.8% 3moy. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 6.7% 3moy.
EURJPY Capped by 20-day SMA Before Bullish Move Can Continue
EURJPY is capped by the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around 148.20 after the rebound off the 146.35 support level.
The short-term bias looks negative as the MACD keeps losing ground below its red signal line, while the RSI seems to be making its way down near its 50-neutral mark.
The 20-day SMA currently at 148.20 could be a trigger point for steeper bullish action if the pair manages to break the line. Higher resistance could run towards the 15-year high of 151.65, registered on May 2 through more buyers could be waiting to enter the 152.00 psychological region.
However, if the pair reverses back to the downside, investors could move first at 146.35 and then at 145.55. If the price continues to drop, support could next come somewhere near the 50- and the 200-day SMAs at 145.35 and 143.13 respectively.
In the near-term picture, the bounce off 146.35 turned the outlook from negative to neutral again. Chances for another bullish move are still rising as the 50-day SMA keeps rising above the 200-day SMA.



















