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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2391; (P) 1.2419; (R1) 1.2472; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 1.2545 is still extending. Outlook remains bullish with 1.2343 support intact. On the upside, above 1.2545 will target 1.2759 fibonacci level first. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.2343 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.0351 medium term term bottom (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Further break of 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095 could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.3895. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.1801 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8904; (P) 0.8929; (R1) 0.8950; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as it's still bounded in consolidation from 0.8858. Further decline is expected with 0.9070 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.8858 will resume the down trend from 1.0146 to 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.8767, which is close to 0.8756 long term support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, break of 0.9070 support turned resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is in progress for 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal. Sustained break of 0.9058 support turned resistance will be the first sign of medium term bottoming. However, decisive break of 0.8756 will carry larger bearish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6665; (P) 0.6706; (R1) 0.6734; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation pattern from 0.6563 is still extending. On the downside, break of 0.6619 will indicate that decline from 0.7156 is resuming through 0.6563 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6804 will bring stronger rally back to 61.8% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6929.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3487; (P) 1.3525; (R1) 1.3578; More....

Immediate focus stays on 1.3552 resistance in USD/CAD. As noted before, price actions from 1.3976 are seen as a corrective pattern with fall from 1.3860 as the third leg. Decisive break of 1.3552 will argue that such corrective pattern has completed. Further rally should then be seen back to 1.3860/3976 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3302) is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.68; (P) 147.12; (R1) 147.84; More....

EUR/JPY's rally resumed by breaking through 147.85 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Decisive break of 148.38 will resume larger up trend to 149.75 long term resistance. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 146.39 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 140.44) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. Decisive break there will resume long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.92; (P) 166.50; (R1) 167.48; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment, and further rally is expected as long as 165.38 support holds. On the upside, break of 167.95 will resume the rebound from 155.33 to 169.26 resistance. However, firm break of 165.38 will argue that the corrective pattern from 172.11 is starting another falling leg. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 162.75 support and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 holds, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9792; (P) 0.9800; (R1) 0.9814; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside as the decline from 0.9996 is in progress. The fall is seen as part of the whole correction from 1.0095. Deeper fall would be seen to 0.9704 and below. On the upside, however, break of 0.9846 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9989) and 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. That is, down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8810; (P) 0.8835; (R1) 0.8858; More...

EUR/GBP is still staying in range below 0.8864 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 0.8864 will extend the rebound from 0.8717 to 0.8924 resistance. Further break there should confirm completion of the choppy decline from 0.8977, and should resume larger rise from 0.8545 through 0.8977 high. However, decisive break of 0.8717 support will resume the decline from 0.8977 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains rather mixed for now, except that price actions from 0.9267 (2022 high) are part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). With 0.8720 support intact, rise from 0.8545 is in favor to continue through 0.8977. However, firm break of 0.8720 will argue that such rebound has completed, and open up deeper fall through this support level.

EURCHF is hovering around the 0.9790 area, having recorded a good move since the March 31 high of 0.9989. It is trading well inside the wide 0.9741-1.0006 rectangle that has dominated price action since October 13, 2022, but EURCHF is closing in on the lower boundary for this structure. EUR bears may enjoy another bearish breakout, but the overall technical picture is not on their side at the moment.

The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is trading at the highest since the significant September-December 2021 downleg. This means that a sideways move or a dip in the ADX would result in a pause in the current bearish move. It could get even worse for EUR bears as the stochastic oscillator is sending a double message. A bullish divergence has formed as the higher low in the EURCHF has been matched with a lower low in the stochastic. In addition, this indicator is hovering at its oversold area and hence a break higher would offer the EUR bulls sufficient evidence to take over the market reins.

Should this be the case, EUR bulls would have to overcome the 0.9823-27 range first. This is defined by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June 9, 2022 – September 26, 2022 downtrend respectively. Higher, the 50- and 100-day (SMAs) at the 0.9886-0.9899 area could prove tougher to crack.

On the other hand, the bears would have to deal with the 0.9741 level first, the lower boundary of the current rectangle. If successful, the November 14, 2022 low at 0.9706 appears to be a stronger support area, as seen at the mid-March breakout. Even lower, the 0.9650-0.9665 range, set by the January 15, 2015 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, could be targeted.

To sum up, EURCHF bears would prefer a continuation of the current short-term bearish move. However, strong evidence points to a sideways move, and potentially a reversal, soon.

In its latest monthly report, Bundesbank revealed that German economy performed better than anticipated in the first quarter of 2023. Despite persistently high inflation negatively impacting private consumption, industry experienced a stronger recovery. Additionally, goods exports saw a sharp increase, and construction industry temporarily boosted production. Improved economic performance during the winter months was also reflected in the labor market. Early indicators suggest further positive developments ahead.

Inflation rate fell notably to 7.8% in March, a 1.5 percentage point decrease from February. Bundesbank attributes this decline to a base effect. However, core inflation rate, excluding energy and food, climbed by 0.5 percentage points to reach a historic high of 5.9%. In the coming months, Bundesbank expects inflation rate to continue falling somewhat, particularly due to decreasing energy prices and a potential gradual easing in prices of food, other goods, and services. However, underlying price pressure is expected to remain high overall in the coming months.

Full Bundesbank monthly report release here.