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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6357; (P) 1.6397; (R1) 1.6463; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral with focus on 1.5434 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6216 should confirm short term topping, after rejection by 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Intraday bias will be back on the downside in this case, to 1.6033 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.82; (P) 146.26; (R1) 146.78; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Current rise from 137.37 is in progress and further further rally should be seen back to retest 148.38 high. On the downside, below 145.13 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral. But outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 142.53 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 139.78) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Decisive break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.55; (P) 166.07; (R1) 166.75; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 155.33 is resuming and further rally should be seen to 69.26 resistance next. For now, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 162.75 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 holds, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Market picture

Bitcoin is consolidating around the $30K mark for the third day, moving in a tight $20.7-30.3K range. Yesterday’s news from the US had a moderately negative impact on the price but did not cause any sustained pressure.

With the market pulling back from local highs earlier in the day, cryptocurrency capitalisation is now around 1% higher than 24 hours ago. Bitcoin added 0.5%, Ethereum 2.7%, and the top altcoins ranged from -0.2% (XRP) to +5.5% (Solana).

The $30,000 mark was significant for Bitcoin in 2021 and the first half of 2022, acting as a market mode switch. Last year, bitcoin consolidated around this price for about five weeks before plunging sharply. There is a greater chance of a mirror dynamic, with the bulls taking a long time to gather their strength before making a decisive move higher.

The entire cryptocurrency market could follow a similar dynamic to the flagship cryptocurrency.

Bank of America noted that there had been a substantial outflow of bitcoins from cryptocurrency exchanges to users’ wallets. This occurs when investors intend to hold BTC for the long term, suggesting that the pressure from sellers may be easing.

News background

According to Pew Research, around 70% of Americans with varying degrees of awareness of cryptocurrency projects do not plan to invest in digital assets soon. High volatility, high-profile bankruptcies and regulatory uncertainty have all played a role.

A European Commission agency has published a document calling for stricter identity checks on users of cryptocurrency exchanges and crypto ATMs.

The Spanish government’s tax agency (AEAT) has stepped up efforts to collect taxes from local holders of digital assets. Officials will notify 328,000 traders.

The Binance.US exchange announced that it was delisting trading pairs involving TRON (TRX) after rumours surfaced online that Tron founder Justin Sun had been arrested by Hong Kong law enforcement. Sun later denied the rumours.

Argentina’s National Commission of Values (CNV) approved a futures index for Bitcoin as part of its strategic innovation programme. The index would be the first such product in Latin America.

Hello Traders in this article we will go through LTCUSD. Litecoin has been trading higher within a cycle from 03.11.2023. After it completed wave ((iii)) higher from that cycle within it’s wave ((iv)) pullback it found buyers within equal legs area.

Here at Elliott Wave Forecast we have developed a system that allow us to spot areas of the market in which we can expect a reaction in favor of the current trend or minimum a 3 waves reaction. This way we are able to enter the market with a defined risk and entry, alongside with a target area.

In the case of Litecoin we had completed the first leg lower in (a) and connector bounce in (b) of ((iv)) and we were able then to project the area of (c) of ((iv)). This is what we call equal legs area. From there we expect buyers to enter for wave ((v)) higher or produce a minimum of 3 waves reaction higher at least. Let’s have a look on LTCUSD 1 hour cycle from 03.28.2023.

LTCUSD 1 hour London update 03.28.2023

As we can see it has entered the equal legs area 87.93 – 83.74 within wave (c) of ((iv)). From that area we expected a reaction higher within wave ((v)) or minimum 3 waves reaction higher.

Let’s fast forward now to the 1 hour London update from 04.11.2023 to see what ended up happening.

LTCUSD 1 hour London update 04.11.2023

From the low of 85.69 Litecoin has traded higher into wave (i), completed pullback in wave (ii) and extending higher in wave iii of (iii). We can soon expect it to end wave (iii) pullback in (Iv) before it makes one more high into (v). Consequently this will be ending wave ((v)) and cycle from 03.11.2023. You can learn what’s next for Litecoin amongst other cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Matic & Dogecoin by becoming a member. Cryptos belong to our Group 2 instruments.

Cable remains firm and probing through psychological 1.2500 barrier in early European trading on Thursday, as markets digested UK data.

UK economic growth was flat in February, against expectations for a minimal expansion by 0.1%, but immediate negative impact was offset by upward revision of January’s figure to 0.4% from 0.3%, which offered fresh support after the pound was lifted by Wednesday’s US CPI below expectations.

The action is underpinned by rising positive momentum and moving averages in full bullish setup on daily chart and extending strong advance from past two days.

Bulls eye key barrier at 1.2525 (2023 high, posted on Apr 4), break of which would open way towards net target at 1.2759 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.4249/1.0348 downtrend).

Confirmation of higher low at 1.2343 (Apr 10) adds to bullish outlook, though bulls may face headwinds at 1.2525 target as stochastic is about to enter overbought territory on daily chart.

Potential dips are expected to offer better buying opportunities and should be ideally contained by rising 10DMA (1.2434).

Caution on sustained break below rising 20DMA (1.2346) which would sideline immediate bulls.

Res: 1.2525; 1.2600; 1.2694; 1.2759.
Sup: 1.2476; 1.2443; 1.2346; 1.2274.

Australian dollar extends rally into third straight day, supported by better than expected Australia’s jobs data in March, which adds to bullish sentiment, boosted by Wednesday’s below expectations US CPI data.

Fresh advance cracks Fibo 61.8% retracement of 0.6793/0.6619 pullback and contribute to signals of higher low at 0.6619, though the action faces another significant obstacle at 0.6743 (200DMA).

Sustained break here is needed to reinforce near-term bullish structure for test of the base of thick daily cloud (0.6769), where bulls may face increased headwinds on the way to full retracement of 0.6793/0.6619 bear-leg.

Technical studies on daily chart are improving (moving averages 10/20/30 turned to bullish setup and 14-d momentum is heading north after returning to positive territory) and support the action.

Today’s close above broken daily Tenkan-sen (0.6706) is needed to keep bulls in play.

Res: 0.6743; 0.6769; 0.6779; 0.6793.
Sup: 0.6726; 0.6706; 0.6678; 0.6660.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0935; (P) 1.0968; (R1) 1.1024; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside with focus now on 1.1032 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 0.9534 to 1.1273 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.0972 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 1.0830 support will now indicate rejection by 1.1032, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0711 support and below.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress with 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0460 intact. The strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.0625) was also a medium term bullish sign. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2424; (P) 1.2459; (R1) 1.2520; More...

Immediate focus is now back on 1.2524 resistance as GBP/USD's rebound extends today. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend to 1.2759 fibonacci level first. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095. Rejection by 1.2524 will bring more corrective trading first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.2343 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.0351 medium term term bottom (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Further break of 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095 could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.3895. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.1801 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9006; (P) 0.9055; (R1) 0.9081; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Current down trend from 1.0146 should target 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.8767, which is close to 0.8756 long term support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, above 0.9005 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9439 resistance holds, and fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is still in progress. Prior rejection by 55 week EMA was a medium term bearish sign. Sustained of 0.9058 will resume such decline towards 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal.