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Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.58; (P) 133.31; (R1) 133.88; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 134.04 will resume the rebound from 129.62 towards 137.90 resistance again. On the downside, break of 130.62 should resume the fall from 137.90 through 129.62 to retest 127.20 low.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3417; (P) 1.3453; (R1) 1.3478; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is back on the downside with breach of 1.3405 support. Fall from 1.3860 is likely resuming and further decline should be seen to 1.3224/61 support zone. As the decline is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3976, strong support should be seen around 1.3224/61 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3552 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3860 resistance.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 1.3282) is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

AUDUSD rebounded off the 0.6625 support level, which is also near the lower boundary of the short-term upward sloping channel. Currently, the market is standing above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and is approaching a bearish crossover within the 50- and the 200-day SMAs near 0.6740.

Technically, the MACD oscillator is holding above its trigger line in the negative region, while the RSI is pointing upwards above the neutral threshold of 50, suggesting that more bullish moves may be on cards.

If the price action jumps above the SMAs, there is scope to test the 0.6790 resistance. Clearing this key level would see additional gains towards 0.6857. This is considered to be a strong resistance area which has been rejected a few times in the past. Rising above it would see prices re-test the 0.7030 peak.

If the 0.6625 support fails, then the focus would shift to the downside towards 0.6560. This level is the previous bottom and if it is breached, this would increase downside pressure and bring about a reversal of the trend. From here, AUDUSD would be on the path towards the 0.6385 low.

Overall, AUDUSD has been positive in the near-term since bottoming at 0.6560. In the long-term view, the price is appearing negative as it stands beneath the descending trend line.

WTI oil futures (May delivery) posted a fresh 15-month low of 64.36 in mid-March after breaking below their long-lasting rectangle pattern. However, the commodity bounced strongly and jumped above both its downward sloping channel and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), while it is currently battling with a fortified area that includes the 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fibo.

The momentum indicators currently suggest that bullish forces are strengthening near their overbought territories. Specifically, the MACD histogram is gaining ground above both zero and its red signal line, while the RSI has flatlined slightly below the 70-overbought mark.

If buyers try to push the price even higher, they might initially struggle to conquer the 83.18 congested area that includes the 200-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 6.62-130.5 uptrend. Surpassing that barrier, the price may ascend to test the November peak of 92.50. Further advances could cease at the 23.6% Fibo of 101.26.

On the flipside, should the price reverse lower, the recent support zone of 79.50 could act as the first line of defense. A break below that region could turn the spotlight to 75.80, which overlaps with the 50-day SMA. Even lower, the price could retreat towards 72.60 before the 50.0% Fibo of 68.56 gets tested.

In brief, WTI oil futures have been in a strong recovery after hitting a 15-month low and reaching extremely oversold conditions. However, for the medium-term picture to turn bullish, the price needs to close above the 83.18 ceiling.

The USDCHF pair most likely forms a triple zigzag pattern Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ. Its final part, wave Ⓩ, is under development.

The primary wave Ⓩ can end in the form of a standard intermediate zigzag (A)-(B)-(C). Wave (A) is a 5-wave bearish impulse, wave (B) has a horizontal internal structure of a double three W-X-Y.

At the time of writing, the formation of the final intermediate wave (C) is taking place. Perhaps it will be at 76.4% of impulse (A), and will end near 0.872 in the form of an ending diagonal.

And what if the development of correction (B) continues? Let's consider an alternative scenario, where it can take the form of a triple three consisting of sub-waves W-X-Y-X-Z.

The minor sub-waves W-X-Y-X have been completed. It is necessary to wait for the development of the minor wave Z.

Probably, the bulls will send the market to 0.943, that is, to the maximum of the wave Y.

Markets

US CPI and the March Fed meeting minutes were the main events defining trading yesterday. The former showed headline prices easing a full percentage point to an annual 5% but a core gauge accelerating from 5.5% to 5.6% on the bank of sticky services/housing inflation. US bond yields whipsawed with the 2-y losing 20 bps from intraday highs, followed by a 15 bps rebound in the hours thereafter. The 10-y fell but then recouped all of the 12 bps drop. The minutes later revealed the Fed balancing risks of a credit crunch following the SVB collapse and stubbornly high inflation. They raised rates by 25 bps and the updated dot plot suggested one more in store even as Fed staff warned for a mild recession. But that’s less than what officials expected to do before the financial turmoil erupted, according to the minutes. Given the uncertain outlook, there’s a need for “flexibility and optionality”. The sky in the meantime cleared up a bit, something which several Fed governors including Daly yesterday, acknowledged. Yet, the overall dovish tone of the minutes in the end still prevented the 2-y yield (-6.4 bps) a close above 4%. Longer maturities underperformed with the 10-y eventually losing 3.5 bps and the 30-y adding 0.4 bps. The US induced decline in German Bund yields was quickly followed by a vigorous rebound, leading to net gains of 5.6 bps (30-y) to 9 bps (2-y). Strong Bund underperformance brought EUR/USD within striking distance of the 1.10 big figure. Dollar weakness also did its part. The trade-weighted index fell from 102.12 to 101.50. EUR/GBP managed to close above 0.88 for the first time since end-March. BoE governor Bailey in an after-market speech said that financial stability issues won’t distract the central bank from its fight against inflation through higher rates, adding that it has different tools to address the matter. Equities struggled. The Euro Stoxx 50 erased a 1.5% gain to trade flat, Wall Street ended a choppy session in the red (Nasdaq -0.85%).

The Australian dollar is the top performer during Asian trading this morning on the back of a stronger-than-expected labour market report. The USD trades stable with EUR/USD hovering near yesterday’s closing levels close to but below 1.10. US cash yields eke out gains of up to 2.5 bps at the front. The 2-y yield remains close near the 4% barrier. Today’s economic calendar contains jobless claims and US PPI numbers. Seeing the market’s over-sensitiveness for downside surprises, core bond yields face larger risks for losing further ground, especially in the US. The dollar in such a case may break through support at around EUR/USD 1.10(33). Doing so immediately brings 1.1185/86 on the radar. The UK industrial update this morning slightly disappoints but sterling in a first reaction trades little changed.

News Headlines

The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate as expected unchanged at 4.5% for a second meeting running. Quantitative tightening continues to complement the restrictive policy stance. It also sticks with a tightening bias if needed to return inflation to the 2% target. Canadian money markets discount a flat policy rate path until December, when they discount a 25 bps rate cut. BoC governor Macklem pushed back against that scenario at the press conference. The BoC expects CPI inflation (5.2% Y/Y in February) to quickly fall to around 3% mid 2023 and then decline more gradually to target by end 2024. Risks are tilted to the upside because inflation expectations are coming down slowly, service price inflation and wage growth remain elevated, and corporate pricing behavior has yet to normalize. Canadian demand is still exceeding supply and the labour market remains tight. Canadian Q1 growth looks to be stronger than anticipated in January with solid consumption and a bounce in exports. The former could take a hit as households renew mortgages at higher rates and as restrictive policy works its way through the economy more broadly. The latter might come under pressure in coming months as US growth is expected to slow considerably. The BoC projects GDP to grow by 1.4% this year (from 1%), 1.3% in 2024 (from 1.8%) and 2.5% in 2025.

March Australian labour data printed very strong this morning. Recall that February jobs data also delivered a big positive surprise (+63.6k). Employment grew by 53k (vs 20k expected) with full time job gains even bigger at 72.2k. Part time jobs fell by 19.2k. The unemployment rate stabilized at a near 50-yr low of 3.5% (vs 3.6% expected) with the participation rate unchanged at 66.7% as well. Australian money markets aren’t convinced yet that back-to-back payroll strength will tempt the RBA into delivering a (final?) 25 bps rate hike at the May policy meeting. The Aussie dollar trades slightly strong this morning against a weak USD (AUD/USD 0.67).

CL_F (Crude Oil) favors higher in 5 wave Impulse Elliott Wave sequence as wave 1 before pullback starts. It placed (B) at $64.12 low on 3/20/2023. Above (B) low, it placed ((i)) at $71.67 high & ((ii)) at $66.82 low. ((ii)) was 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of ((i)). It favored ended ((iii)) at $81.81 high on 4/04/2023 high as extended ((iii)). Within ((iii)), it placed (i) at $74.37 high, (ii) at $72.61 low, (iii) at $81.69 high, (iv) at $79.00 low & (v) ended at $81.81 high as ((iii)) as 2.0 Fibonacci extension of ((i)). It ended ((iv)) at $79.37 low as double as shallow correction on 4/11/2023. Above ((iv)) low, it favors higher in ((v)) of 1.

Above ((iv)) low of $79.37, it ended (i) of ((v)) at $81.85 high & (ii) at $81.28 low. It ended (iii) at $83.53 high & favors pullback in (iv) before upside resumes in (v) to finish ((v)) as wave 1. Impulse sequence expects to finish with momentum divergence in fifth wave against third wave before correction starts. So, if it erases the momentum divergence with more upside, then it can be the part of nest within impulse sequence before pullback starts. Once it finished wave 1 as impulse sequence, it expect to pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings against 3/20/2023 low before turning higher. It expects to remain supported at extreme areas in pullback.

CL_F (Crude Oil) 60 Minute Elliott Wave Chart

CL_F (Crude Oil) Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iUJVQDykZs

USD/CHF breaks lower

The US dollar tumbled over cooling inflation in March. The price action has remained under pressure after it dropped below the daily support of 0.9070. A limited rebound saw stiff selling pressure at 0.9120 with a shooting star indicating little buying interest. Such a reversal pattern in a supply zone is significant, making it a major ceiling in the short-term. The pair has reached June 2021’s low of 0.8940 and its breach may further depress the exchange rate towards 0.8900. The support-turned-resistance at 0.9030 is a fresh hurdle.

USD/CAD tests support

The Canadian dollar held against its US counterpart as the BoC rejected rate cuts for this year. On the daily chart, the pair is testing the demand zone (1.3400) at the start of the February rally. However, a bearish MA cross suggests mounting downward pressure, which means that the price is in a broad consolidation before a breakout would dictate the next move. 1.3410 is a key floor from the latest rebound and its breach would trigger a bearish continuation. 1.3510 is the first resistance to clear before a recovery could materialise.

US Oil breaks major resistance

WTI crude rallies as lower US CPI may point to the end of the tightening cycle. After consolidating their gains following a parabolic rise the bulls managed to push past January’s high of 82.20, which would pave the way for an extended recovery towards 88.00 with 85.00 as an intermediate resistance. Medium-term sentiment could be turning around. As the RSI shot into the overbought area, the bulls may need to catch their breath with the former resistance at 81.40 as a fresh support. Further down, 79.30 would be a key floor.

DXY:

The momentum of the DXY chart is currently bearish, which suggests that we may see further price drops in the near future. At the time of writing, the price is trading around 101.63.

If the bearish trend continues, the price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level of 100.86. This support level is a swing low support and also coincides with a 138.20% Fibonacci Expansion level, which makes it a strong level of support.

If the price breaks through the 1st support level, the next support level is the intermediate support level at 101.45, which is a multi-swing low support level that the price has bounced off multiple times in the past. This level is also a good level of support, as it has been tested multiple times before.

On the resistance side, we have the 1st resistance level at 102.03. This is an overlap resistance level, as well as a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level, which makes it a strong level of resistance that the price may struggle to break through.

If the price were to break through the 1st resistance level, the next resistance level is the 2nd resistance level at 102.80, which is a swing high resistance level. This level marks the high point of a previous bullish trend, and therefore it may also be a strong resistance level.

EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD chart is currently bullish, which suggests that we may see further price increases in the near future. At the time of writing, the price is trading around 1.0985.

If the bullish trend continues, the price could potentially make a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level of 1.1022. This resistance level is a swing high resistance and also coincides with a -27% Fibonacci Expansion level, which makes it a strong level of resistance.

If the price breaks through the 1st resistance level, the next resistance level is the 2nd resistance level at 1.1056, which is a swing high resistance level that marks the high point of a previous bullish trend. This level also coincides with a 161.80% Fibonacci Extension level, which makes it a strong level of resistance.

On the support side, we have the 1st support level at 1.0932, which is an overlap support level. This level has been tested multiple times before and has shown strength in holding the price up.

If the price were to drop further, the next support level is the 2nd support level at 1.0833, which is a swing low support level that the price has bounced off multiple times in the past. This level is also a good level of support, as it has been tested multiple times before.

It’s worth noting that there is an intermediate support level at 1.0971, which is a pullback support level. This level may provide a temporary halt to any downward momentum that the price may experience.

GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD chart is currently bearish, which suggests that we may see further price drops in the near future. At the time of writing, the price is trading around 1.2485.

If the bearish trend continues, the price could potentially make a bearish reaction off the 1st resistance level of 1.2521 and drop to the 1st support level of 1.2428. This support level is an overlap support level and has shown strength in holding the price up.

If the price were to break through the 1st support level, the next support level is the 2nd support level at 1.2343, which is also an overlap support level that the price has bounced off multiple times in the past.

On the resistance side, we have the 1st resistance level at 1.2521, which is a pullback resistance level and also coincides with a 61.80% Fibonacci Projection level. This makes it a strong level of resistance that the price may struggle to break through.

If the price were to break through the 1st resistance level, the next resistance level is the 2nd resistance level at 1.2588, which is a swing high resistance level that marks the high point of a previous bullish trend. This level also coincides with a 138.20% Fibonacci Extension level, which makes it a strong level of resistance.

USD/CHF:

The USD/CHF chart is currently bearish, and this is supported by the fact that the price is in a bearish descending channel. At the time of writing, the price is trading around 0.8985.

If the bearish trend continues, the price could potentially make a bearish break off the 1st support level of 0.8944 and drop towards the 2nd support level of 0.8892. This support level is a swing low support level that the price has bounced off multiple times in the past.

If the price were to break through the 1st support level, it may further support the bearish momentum of the chart, especially given that the price is already in a bearish channel. This could potentially result in a drop towards the 2nd support level at 0.8892, which is also a strong level of support that the price may bounce off of.

On the resistance side, we have the 1st resistance level at 0.9034, which is a pullback resistance level. This level may provide a temporary halt to any upward momentum that the price may experience.

If the price were to break through the 1st resistance level, the next resistance level is the 2nd resistance level at 0.9116, which is an overlap resistance level that the price has struggled to break through in the past.

It’s worth noting that there is also an intermediate resistance level at 0.9007, which is a pullback resistance level. This level may provide a temporary halt to any upward momentum that the price may experience.

USD/JPY:

The USD/JPY chart currently shows bullish momentum, with the potential for further price rises in the near future. The current trading price is around 132.68.

However, there is also a possibility for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level of 131.81. This support level has been tested multiple times in the past and is considered a strong level of support. Additionally, it coincides with a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level, further strengthening its significance.

If the price were to break through the 1st support level, the next level of support is the 2nd support level at 130.53. This is another overlap support level that the price has bounced off of in the past.

On the resistance side, we have the 1st resistance level at 133.76, which is an overlap resistance level that has proven to be difficult for the price to break through in previous attempts. This level also coincides with a 50% Fibonacci Retracement level, making it a strong level of resistance that may prevent the price from continuing its bullish momentum.

If the price were to break through the 1st resistance level, the next resistance level is the 2nd resistance level at 135.08. This is another overlap resistance level that the price may struggle to break through, as it also coincides with a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level.

AUD/USD:

The AUD/USD chart is currently bullish, which suggests that we may see further price rises in the near future. At the time of writing, the price is trading around 0.6708.

There is a potential for a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level of 0.6726. This resistance level is an overlap resistance level that the price has struggled to break through in the past. Additionally, it coincides with a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level, making it a strong level of resistance that may be difficult for the price to break through.

If the price were to break through the 1st resistance level, the next resistance level is the 2nd resistance level at 0.6784, which is a multi-swing high resistance level. This level does not have any significant Fibonacci levels coinciding with it, but it has been a strong level of resistance in the past.

On the support side, we have the 1st support level at 0.6666, which is an overlap support level that the price has bounced off of in the past. The next level of support is the 2nd support level at 0.6623, which is a multi-swing low support level.

NZD/USD:

The overall momentum of the NZD/USD chart is currently bearish, triggered by a break below an ascending support line.

There is a potential for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level of 0.6180. This support level is a multi-swing low support level, and if the price were to break through it, we could see a further drop towards the 2nd support level of 0.6142. This level is also an overlap support level and coincides with a 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement level.

On the resistance side, we have the 1st resistance level at 0.6227, which is an overlap resistance level. This level coincides with a 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level, making it a relatively weak level of resistance. The next resistance level is the 2nd resistance level at 0.6281, which is an overlap resistance level and coincides with a 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.

USD/CAD:

The USD/CAD chart is currently showing a bearish momentum, suggesting that we may see further price declines in the near future. At the time of writing, the price is trading around 1.3442.

There could potentially be a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level at 1.3341. This support level is an overlap support level that the price has bounced off multiple times in the past.

If the price were to break through the 1st support level, the next support level is the intermediate support level at 1.3412, which is a multi-swing low support level that the price has also bounced off multiple times in the past.

On the resistance side, we have the 1st resistance level at 1.3518, which is an overlap resistance level that the price has struggled to break through in the past.

If the price were to break through the 1st resistance level, the next resistance level is the intermediate resistance level at 1.3454, which is another overlap resistance level that the price may struggle to break through.

DJ30:

The DJ30 chart is currently showing bearish momentum, indicating a potential continuation towards the 1st support level at 33367.04. This support level is a pullback support and if price were to break below it, the next support level is the 2nd support at 32954.51, which is also a pullback support.

On the resistance side, we have the 1st resistance level at 33849.58, which is a multi-swing high resistance level that the price has struggled to break through in the past. This resistance level coincides with a 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level, making it a strong level of resistance that the price may struggle to break through. If price were to break above the 1st resistance level, the next resistance level is the 2nd resistance level at 34194.15, which is a swing high resistance level.

In addition, RSI is displaying bearish divergence versus price, suggesting that a reversal might occur soon. This indicates a potential for a bearish reversal in the near future.

There is an intermediate support level at 33599.03, which is an overlap support level that the price has bounced off multiple times in the past.

GER30:

The GER30 chart is currently showing bearish momentum, as it broke below an ascending support line, suggesting that we may see further price declines in the near future.

Price could potentially react bearishly off the 1st resistance level of 15713.94 and drop towards the 1st support level of 15480.74. The 1st support level is an overlap support level that has held the price multiple times in the past, making it a strong level of support. The 2nd support level is at 15302.80, which is a pullback support level and could also provide some support if the price were to continue to drop.

On the resistance side, we have the 1st resistance level at 15713.94, which is a multi-swing high resistance level that the price has struggled to break through in the past. The 2nd resistance level is at 15929.73, which is a swing high resistance level.

Additionally, the RSI is displaying bearish divergence versus price, suggesting that a reversal might occur soon, which could further support the bearish momentum on the GER30 chart.

BTC/USD:

The BTC/USD chart is currently showing a bullish momentum, suggesting that we may see further price rises in the near future. The first support level is at 28645, which is a pullback support level that the price has bounced off multiple times in the past. The second support level is at 26505, which is an overlap support level that the price has also bounced off multiple times in the past.

On the resistance side, we have the first resistance level at 31761, which is a swing high resistance level. If the price were to break through the first resistance level, the next resistance level is the second resistance level at 32951, which is also a swing high resistance level.

In addition, there is an intermediate resistance level at 30568, which is a multi-swing high resistance level. If the price were to break through this level, it could potentially trigger a stronger bullish acceleration towards the first resistance level.

US500

US500 shows signs of bullish momentum as it continues to trade above a major ascending trend line. This suggests that further bullish moves may be on the horizon. However, RSI is displaying bearish divergence versus price, which could potentially signal a reversal in the near future.

Currently, the price could potentially make a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level at 4136.46. The 1st support level is located at 4058.30 and is a strong overlap support that also coincides with an ascending trend line, further strengthening its significance. In the event of a pullback, the 2nd support level at 4007.53 could provide additional support as it is also an overlap support.

On the other hand, the 1st resistance level at 4136.46 is a multi-swing high resistance that could potentially halt the bullish move. If the price manages to break through this level, the next level to watch out for is the 2nd resistance level at 4175.39, which is a swing high resistance.

ETH/USD:

The overall momentum of the ETH/USD chart is bullish, with the price currently above a major ascending trend line, suggesting further bullish momentum is on the cards.

Looking at the chart, we can see that the price could potentially make a bullish continuation towards the first resistance level at 1941.05. Before reaching this level, the price may find support at the first support level of 1835.50. This level is an overlap support and is also on an ascending trend line, which acts as support.

If the price were to break below the first support level, the second support level at 1768.78 may provide additional support. This level is also an overlap support and coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level.

On the other hand, if the price were to break above the first resistance level, it may rise towards the second resistance level at 2018.72. This level is a swing high resistance level and may provide a strong resistance to the price movement.

WTI/USD:

The overall momentum of WTI appears to be bearish. The price could potentially experience a bearish reaction off the first resistance and drop to the first support. The first support is at 80.76, which is an overlap support, while the second support is at 77.83, which is a swing low support. The first resistance is at 85.48, which is a swing high resistance, while the intermediate resistance is at 83.25, which is also a swing high resistance.

Additionally, RSI is displaying bearish divergence versus the price, suggesting that a reversal might occur soon. Overall, it appears that the price could potentially continue to drop towards the first support level, especially given the bearish momentum on the chart. Traders should keep an eye on these key support and resistance levels and monitor any potential reversals or breakouts that could signal a shift in momentum.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Gold has been displaying bullish momentum on the chart, with the price above a major ascending trend line. This suggests further bullish momentum could be on the cards for XAU/USD.

If the bullish momentum continues, the price could potentially move towards the 1st resistance at 2031.31. This level is an important swing high resistance level, and coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci projection.

In terms of support levels, the 1st support level is at 1985.77. This level is an overlap support level, and is also on the ascending trend line which acts as support. The 2nd support level is at 1947.64, which is a swing low support level.

Additionally, there is an intermediate support level at 2009.34, which is also an overlap support level.

UK economy experienced a slowdown in February, with no monthly growth (0.0% mom) in GDP, falling short of the 0.1% mom growth expected by analysts. The disappointing result follows a 0.4% mom growth in January. The data reveals that services contracted by -0.1% mom after a 0.7% mom growth in January, while production fell by -0.2% mom following a -0.5% mom contraction in January. In contrast, construction sector saw growth of 2.4% mom, rebounding from a -1.7% mom contraction in January.

In the three months to February, GDP grew by a mere 0.1% when compared to the three months to November. During this period, services grew by 0.1%, production declined by -0.2%, and construction experienced growth of 0.9%. The lackluster performance raises concerns about the overall health of the UK economy.

Full UK GDP release here.

Also published, industrial production came in at -0.2% mom, -3.1% yoy, versus expectation o f0.3% mom, -3.7% yoy. Manufacturing production was at 0.0%mom, -2.4% yoy, versus expectation of 0.3% mom, -4.7% yoy. Goods trade deficit narrowed slightly to GBP -17.5B, versus expectation of GBP -17.0B.