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UK PMI Services was finalized at 49.9 in December, up from November's 48.8. S&P Global said fractional fall in activity was recorded at the end of 2022. Inflation rates were down but still high. Employment was unchanged, ending long period of jobs growth. PMI Composite was finalized at 49.0, up from prior month's 48.2.

Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

"Around 40% of the survey panel expect a rise in business activity over the next 12 months, while 16% forecast a decline. Survey respondents commented on squeezed disposable incomes, elevated recession risks and a housing market downturn as key factors likely to constrain demand in the year ahead.

"Although service providers widely noted concerns about global economic headwinds and stubbornly high inflation, there were also many reports citing positivity about factors within their control, including forthcoming product launches, expansion into new markets and planned business investment."

Full release here.

AUDUSD has been in a recovery mode since mid-October when its long-term downtrend hit a bottom at the 32-month low of 0.6169. However, the pair's rebound appears to be fading as the price has been constantly held down by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

The momentum indicators currently suggest that bullish forces are subsiding but remain in charge. Specifically, the MACD histogram is holding above both zero and its red signal line, while the RSI is pointing downwards in the positive territory.

If the positive momentum strengthens and the price crosses above the 200-day SMA, the recent high of 0.6892 could prove to be the first resistance point. Piercing through that zone, the bulls might aim for 0.7008 before the spotlight turns to the August peak of 0.7136. Any further advances could then cease at the June high of 0.7282.

Alternatively, should the pair reverse lower, the recent support of 0.6687 could act as the first line of defense. Diving beneath that zone, the price might decline to test the December low of 0.6628. Should that floor collapse, the 0.6584 region may then provide downside protection.

Overall, AUDUSD seems to be in a consolidation mode as the 200-day SMA has repeatedly capped its upside.  Therefore, a successful close above that crucial barrier could spark an upside rally.

WTI crude falters over fears of a forced recession by central banks across the globe. The price hit resistance at last month’s swing high (82.00), suggesting that the pessimism still prevails. A combination of profit-taking and renewed selling has driven the commodity below 78.00 and 74.00, exacerbating the liquidation. The psychological level of 70.00 is the last level to gauge buying interest, and its breach may cause a bear market. 76.40 is the first hurdle and only a bounce above 79.90 may shore up confidence.

Gold stays high amid the US dollar’s softness across the board. On the daily chart, the precious metal has found solid demand along the 20-day moving average and is on its way to last June’s peak at 1880. A bullish breakout would lay the foundation for an extension to the support-turned-resistance of 1940 from last April’s sell-off. On the hourly time frame, an overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback, but the bullish drive would remain intact as long as the price is above 1840. 1815 on the MA would be another support.

The US dollar struggles as the Fed minutes confirms a slower pace in its interest rate increases. Last April’s low of 0.9200 has offered some support and the surge above 0.9340 prompted sellers to trim their exposure. Follow-up bids above the fresh resistance 0.9400 will be needed to keep the momentum going and cement a reversal. The current pullback may attract bargain hunters, but a failure to contain it above 0.9200 would signal weakness, opening the door to a bearish drift in the weeks to come.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0552; (P) 1.0593; (R1) 1.0646; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.0481 will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Deeper fall would be seen back to 1.0289 support and below. On the upside, however, firm break of 61.8% projection of 0.9729 to 1.0481 from 1.0289 at 1.0754 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.1041.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Rejection by 1.0609 will suggest that price actions from 0.9534 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern. Thus, medium bearishness is retained for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0609 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1981; (P) 1.2034; (R1) 1.2111; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.1899 and sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 1.1938) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2445 at 1.1645 next. However, strong rebound from 55 day EMA, followed by break of 1.2124 resistance, will argue that the pull back from 1.2445 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting this high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.4248 (2021 high). Further rise is expected as long as 1.1644 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 1.4248. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.1916) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.82; (P) 131.77; (R1) 133.61; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook remains bearish as long as 134.49 resistance holds. On the downside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 148.44 to 133.61 from 138.16 at 128.99 could trigger downside acceleration to 100% projection at 123.33. Nevertheless, break of 134.49 will turn bias to the upside for 138.16 resistance intact.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top was in place at 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 131.65) would raise the chance of bearish trend reversal. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 137.54) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9241; (P) 0.9310; (R1) 0.9367; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and risk stays mildly on the upside with 0.9199 short term bottom intact. Break of 0.9397 will resume the rebound from 0.9199 to 55 day EMA (now at 0.9460) and above. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.9199 will resume whole decline from 1.0146 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8756 (2021 low) has completed at 1.0146, well ahead of 1.0342 long term resistance (2016 high). Based on current downside momentum, fall from 1.0146 might be a medium term down trend itself. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8756 to 1.0146 at 0.9287 will pave the way to 0.8756. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9545 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6741; (P) 0.6814; (R1) 0.6910; More...

AUD/USD is still bounded in range of 0.6628/6892 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.6892 at 0.6616 will indicate rejection by 0.66871 fibonacci level. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6445. On the upside, break of 0.6892 will resume the rally from 0.6169.

In the bigger picture, it's still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend reversal. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6894) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.