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Key Takeaways

• Surging global bond yields intensified pressure on equity markets as the US 30-year Treasury yield approached the critical 5.20% level, reinforcing fears that the Federal Reserve may shift toward future rate hikes instead of cuts.
• Markets are highly focused on NVIDIA earnings, with options markets implying a massive post-results valuation swing that could determine the near-term direction of AI-related equities and the broader Nasdaq 100.
• Asia-Pacific markets are mixed due to rising yields and currency stress in today's Asia opening session.
• Chart of the day: Gold (XAU/USD) bearish breakdown from 1-month range, eyeing next intermediate supports at $4,415 and $4,319.

Top Macro Headlines

• Inflation worries fuel massive global bond sell-off: Wall Street fell on Tuesday for the third consecutive session as intensifying inflation panic pushed long-dated US bond yields to their highest levels since 2007. The 30-year US Treasury yield is flirting with the critical 5.20% threshold.
• Fed rate hike pressures intensify: The massive bond rout reflects a structural shift in monetary policy expectations. US futures are now indicating a greater than 50% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year, effectively eliminating previous hopes for a rate cut.
• Bessent outlines hardline Iran stance: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on global allies to forcefully disrupt Iran's financing networks. He announced a comprehensive review of the US sanctions list to make it easier for financial institutions to root out sophisticated terrorist financing schemes. Concurrently, oil markets saw a brief reprieve after J.D. Vance cited progress in US-Iran peace talks, leading President Trump to hold off on a scheduled attack.
• Japan cranks up FX intervention warnings: With the Japanese Yen sliding through 159 per USD toward the critical 160 level, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama delivered a harsh warning at the G7 meeting in Paris, stating that Tokyo is fully prepared to step back in to defend the currency.
• NVIDIA earnings loom amid options-driven swings: Markets are bracing for NVIDIA’s highly anticipated quarterly earnings report on Wednesday. Options data indicate that the chipmaker is set for a staggering $350 billion market cap price swing following the release.

Key Macro Themes

• The sovereign yield storm vs. tech valuations: Soaring bond yields are driving up discount rates, directly threatening the present value of future earnings for high-growth tech firms. This yield breakout comes at an incredibly vulnerable moment, as hyperscalers take on record debt to fund an estimated $700 billion in AI capital expenditure this year.
• Central bank “rock and a hard place” scenarios: Multi-year macro shocks are pushing central banks into intense policy trade-offs. For example, the brutal UK labor data, showing a 100,000 drop in April payrolls, directly conflicts with Wednesday's impending hot inflation data, leaving the Bank of England with a choice between supporting growth and containing prices.
• Diminishing returns on FX intervention: Sources suggest Japan has already deployed roughly 10 trillion yen since late April to defend its currency. The yen's quick relapse to 159 per USD underscores that massive intervention capital is failing to buy central banks' sustainable breathing room against the widening US yield advantage.

Global Market Impact

Equities: Wall Street pulled back, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dropping 0.7% and the Nasdaq falling 0.8%. Decliners were led by communication services, consumer discretionary, and materials, down 1.3% to 2.3%.

Fixed Income: Sovereign debt markets faced a violent sell-off. The long end of the curve buckled under inflation fears, sending the 30-year US yield flirting with 5.20%, its highest point since 2007.

FX: The US Dollar Index remained dominant. The Japanese Yen slipped past 159 per USD to print an intraday high of 159.25 on Tuesday, 19 May, entering the acute intervention danger zone. India's Rupee slumped further, printing a record closing low for the sixth consecutive session to hit a record low of 96.52 per USD in today’s Asia opening session.

Commodities: WTI and Brent crude oil remained firm in the past 24 hours, recording gains of 1% on Tuesday, 19 May. Non-yielding precious metals plunged on yield pressures, with spot Gold dropping 1.8% and silver cratering 5%.

Asia Pacific Impact

• Regional equity bloodbath except Singapore: Asia-Pacific stock markets absorbed severe shocks. South Korea's KOSPI suffered a brutal 3.3% sell-off on Tuesday, 19 May, leading regional losses as the tech-heavy gauge reacted to rising risk-free rates and structural hardware supply-chain vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, Singapore’s Straits Times Index bucked the trend, surging by 1.5% to a new record high, supported by defensive dividend stocks. However, rising bond yields triggered profit-taking today, with STI dropping by 0.7% at the open and steep losses seen in the Nikkei 225, down 1.2%, ASX 200, down 0.8%, and Hang Seng Index, down 0.6%. Meanwhile, KOSPI traded almost unchanged, and China A50 rose by 0.2%.
• Currency degradation and intervention tensions: The broad surge in the greenback and global yields forced intense pressure onto regional currencies. The multi-day record lows for the Indian Rupee and the Yen's collapse past 159 per USD are stoking severe cross-border capital flight risks.

Top 3 Events to Watch Today

1. UK CPI and PPI (Apr) - 2.00 pm SGT Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100, UK gilts
2. FOMC Minutes - 2.00 am SGT Impact: All asset classes
3. NVIDIA Q1 Earnings Release - after close of US session Impact: NVIDIA shares, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, semiconductor and AI-related stocks

Chart of the Day: Gold Bearish Breakdown from 1-Month Range Support

Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 20 May 2026. Source: TradingView.

Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a bearish breakdown from its former one-month range support at $4,486. In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to exhibit bearish momentum conditions below the 50 level.

Watch the $4,580 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the minor bearish trend for the next intermediate supports to come in at $4,415 and $4,319, also close to the key 200-day moving average.

However, a clearance and an hourly close above $4,580 negates the bearish tone for a potential corrective rebound to retest the next intermediate resistances at $4,645 and $4,715, also the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

Key Highlights

• Gold started a fresh decline below the $4,600 support.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $4,660 on the 4-hour chart.
• WTI Crude Oil regained traction and climbed above $105.
• EUR/USD could continue to move down toward 1.1550.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold failed to surpass $4,800 and trimmed gains against the US Dollar. The price dipped below $4,700 and $4,600 to enter a bearish zone.

The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price even declined below $4,550, the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours), and the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours). A low was formed at $4,480, and the price is now consolidating losses.

On the upside, immediate resistance is $4,590. The next major resistance sits near $4,625. The main resistance could be near $4,660 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $4,773 swing high to the $4,480 low.

There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,660. A clear move above $4,660 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $4,700 or even $4,720.

If there is another decline, Gold might find bids near the $4,480 level. The first major support sits at $4,450. The next support could be $4,400, below which the price might slide to $4,320. The main support sits at $4,200. Any more losses might call for a test of $4,065 or even $4,000 in the coming days.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price regained bullish momentum above $105 and might continue to rise in the short term.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• FOMC Meeting Minutes.

This week, US 10-year Treasury yield has surged through its March-April range in a violent breakout that has pushed yields to fresh 52-week highs and their highest levels since early 2025. This is not just another inflation scare. Markets are beginning to reprice the entire higher-for-longer story all over again — and this time, the move is being fueled by geopolitics, oil, and a rapidly shifting acceptance that the Federal Reserve may need to revert to tightening.

The turning point came after President Donald Trump returned from China without securing a breakthrough on Iran. Markets had hoped Beijing might use its leverage to help pressure Tehran into ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, Trump appeared to leave empty-handed, leaving oil markets firmly convinced the energy shock is not ending anytime soon. Brent crude has remained pinned near $110, keeping inflation fears elevated and destroying confidence that price pressures will cool quickly enough for the Fed to ease policy.

That has cornered the Federal Reserve. Recent CPI and PPI reports already showed inflation remaining stubbornly resilient even before the latest oil surge fully feeds through the economy. Now traders are rapidly capitulating on earlier expectations for rate cuts and instead confronting the possibility that rates may need to stay elevated well into next year — or even rise further. Fed fund futures are now pricing around a 60% probability of another Fed hike before year-end.

The implications are becoming increasingly dangerous for other asset classes. Equities have managed to ignore higher yields for months thanks to AI enthusiasm and resilient earnings. But a risk-free rate approaching 5% changes the valuation equation dramatically. At the same time, soaring Treasury yields are acting like a global vacuum cleaner for capital, sucking money back into Dollar assets and placing enormous strain on emerging market currencies and global liquidity conditions. The Indian Rupee’s collapse to record lows is looking less like an isolated event and more like an early warning sign.

Technically, the next key focus for 10-year yield is 100% projection of 3.96 to 4.48 from 4.23 at 4.75. That level now represents a major near-term line in the sand.

Decisive break above 4.75 could quickly accelerate the move toward 161.8% projection at 5.07, a level dangerously close to the multi-decade highs seen in 2023 and one that could significantly intensify pressure across equities, currencies, and global financial conditions more broadly.

For now, near-term bias remains firmly to the upside as long as 4.48 resistance-turned-support continues holding on any pullback.

The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged in May, extending its policy pause to a full year as authorities signaled little urgency to deliver additional monetary easing despite slowing domestic momentum. The 1-year loan prime rate was held at 3.00%, while the 5-year LPR, widely used as a reference for mortgage pricing, remained at 3.50%, matching market expectations.

The decision highlights Beijing’s cautious approach toward broad-based stimulus. Although recent Chinese data have shown renewed weakness in consumption, investment, and lending demand, policymakers appear comfortable maintaining current settings for now. Interbank liquidity conditions remain ample, while the tone of the PBoC’s latest quarterly report suggested officials are still prioritizing financial stability and measured policy support over aggressive easing.

The cautious stance also reflects the increasingly difficult external environment. Rising global energy prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions are complicating policy decisions across Asia, while rate cuts could add pressure on the Yuan at a time when Dollar strength and higher US yields are already tightening global financial conditions.

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson signaled support for keeping interest rates steady while also validating market expectations that rates could remain elevated for much longer than previously anticipated.

Speaking on Tuesday, Paulson also welcomed the recent shift in market pricing away from aggressive rate-cut expectations. “The way the market has moved in reaction to economic news over the last few months largely aligns with my own thinking,” she said. While emphasizing that policy was currently “in a good place,” Paulson added it was “healthy” for investors to consider scenarios where rates remain unchanged for an extended period, “as well as scenarios where further tightening becomes necessary.”

Still, Paulson did not suggest the Fed was preparing to hike imminently, noting that longer-term inflation expectations remain relatively well anchored and growth continues near potential. Markets continue expecting the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the June meeting, though officials increasingly appear comfortable allowing investors to price a much more restrictive policy path than markets expected earlier this year.

• Silver, Gold, and other metals completely faked out to the upside in the past week and are now suffering from their weak tops.
• Long yields are exploding, and this adds further pressure to the non-yielding precious commodities.
• Intraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD.

Precious metals surged higher last week, only to quickly reverse and drop due to weak price levels. It looked like metals were gaining control, with strong rallies reaching new two-month highs. But this momentum turned out to be a classic bull trap.

The main reason for this big reversal is the fast rise of the Warsh trade. After Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, markets quickly adjusted for a major tightening of monetary policy. This change led to a strong, lasting increase in the US Dollar and a sharp drop in bond prices.

As a result, long-term Treasury yields are rising quickly. This big jump in yields makes interest-bearing assets much more appealing to large investors. Because gold and silver do not pay interest, they are under heavy pressure.

Silver vs WTI crude inverse correlation. Source: TradingView, May 19, 2026.

Why hold a zero-yield metal when government paper is offering increasingly rising risk-free returns?

Looking ahead, if the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape remains frustratingly cloudy and deadlocked, Gold may still see occasional safe-haven demand to cushion its downside.

However, higher-beta, industrial-leaning alternatives like Copper and Silver may continue struggling under the sheer weight of a surging US Dollar and restrictive financial conditions. Crucial, trend-defining price action is rapidly approaching for the entire asset class.

Daily market performance, May 19, 2026. Source: Finviz.

Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify the key levels to watch for the action ahead.

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and Levels

Gold is rejecting its resistance and now struggling at the $4,500 support. With the descending RSI, the odds are towards a support break.

Any break back above $4,600 on momentum would undo the bearish outlook.

Intraday timeframe levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Daily momentum pivot: $4,650 to $4,700
• $4,850 to $4,900 major resistance, bullish above
• $5,100 pivotal resistance
• $5,400 mini-resistance

Support Levels:

• December 2025 support: $4,500 to $4,550, testing and bearish below
• Pivotal support: $4,325 to $4,400
• Main channel lows support: $4,100
• Next support: $3,880 to $4,000

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and Levels

Source: TradingView, May 19, 2026.

Silver completely erased its past week's progress and is back right within its longer-run $70 to $84 range.

Buyers are weakly stepping in at the $74 support, but with the descending RSI and weak candles, odds for a break lower are high.

Higher timeframe levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Pivot: $79 to $80
• Major resistance: $83 to $84.50
• Key range resistance: $90 to $92
• $96.47 March highs, higher odds of all-time highs if break above
• Current record: $121.67

Support Levels:

• Micro support: $74 to $76
• $70 to $71.50 April support, bearish below
• December FOMC minor support: $64 to $66
• $61.10 past session lows
• $50 to $55 October resistance now major support
• Silver's 2011 all-time highs: $49.81

Safe trades.

The US Dollar is back on a strong path higher since last week, already looking to erase some of its April softness.

Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chairman after a lengthy, unpredictable political process and financial markets are already experiencing significant changes.

The Warsh trade is slowly being priced in, reinforcing the idea of a more austere monetary policy. Ongoing supply chain disruptions caused by conflict and rising oil prices make near-term rate cuts unlikely, signalling a major shift from what investors were awaiting throughout the past year.

At the heart of this market shift is the idea of a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet, suggesting a level of monetary restraint not seen since before the Great Financial Crisis.

Unlike typical quantitative tightening, this approach may aim to reduce the central bank's balance sheet far more aggressively.

Since Warsh is President Trump's nominee, traders are still unsure if he will pursue such an independent and hawkish policy, but his past views suggest he might.

As a result, investors are anxious to hear Warsh's first public comments, with his swearing-in set for this Friday.

Even before he speaks, expectations of a reduction in liquidity are boosting the US Dollar, which is rising sharply against other currencies.

The dollar's strength reflects how foreign exchange markets are adjusting to wider yield gaps and the prospect of a potentially tighter monetary policy.

Current session's FX performance. Source: Finviz, May 19, 2026.

We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD to spot how the Warsh trade has already impacted the FX market and where to look next.

Dollar Index 4H Chart

Dollar Index 4H chart. Source: TradingView, May 19, 2026.

The US Dollar bulls are attacking the key 99.50 resistance area, which served as a top to last week's initial explosion.

Current bull candles are showing a strong push that could easily retake the 99.415 top, with the formation of a tight bull channel, also following an upward trendline.

Above 99.50, expect a fast-paced continuation towards 100.00. Below 99.00, however, the price action provides a more rangebound picture, hence immediate reactions and today's close will be essential to watch.

Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:

Resistance Levels

• 99.40 to 99.50 resistance, past week highs 99.415
• Initial war spike 99.68
• 100.00 to 100.50 main resistance zone
• War highs 100.544

Support Levels

• 99.00 intraday pivot
• 98.50 to 98.70 war pivot now support
• Support 97.40 to 97.60, triple bottom
• 2025 lows 96.40 to 96.80 support
• Range lows at early 2022 consolidation just below 96.00

GBP/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels

GBP/USD 4H chart. Source: TradingView, May 19, 2026.

Since our last analysis of the major FX pair, the price action completely reversed. Having rejected the 1.36 major resistance on a fakeout, sellers quickly took control of the action.

This weekly open allowed a pullback right at the 1.34 to 1.3450 pivot zone, and the ongoing rejection points to a highly probable retest of the 1.33 level.

A break below would be plausible, with no clear support areas until 1.32 after that, the war lows.

Levels of interest for GBP/USD:

Resistance Levels

• Key pivot 1.34 to 1.3450
• December resistance 1.36, range highs
• Pre-FOMC highs 1.36010
• Resistance 1.37 zone
• 2025 resistance around 1.38

Support Levels

• Pivotal support 1.3280 to 1.33
• 1.32 war support

EUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels

EUR/USD 4H chart. Source: TradingView, May 19, 2026.

EUR/USD has been under heavy pressure since last week, with sellers leading a 2,000-pip move lower in an attempt to break the low-slope descending channel. Add to it a death cross, with the 50-period MA crossing below the 200 MA, and the action is decisively bearish.

While the price action is strong, the pair is reaching some oversold levels, hence an immediate break could be less strong. Watch if the action closes below 1.16 to confirm a downside break.

The next target for bears is the 1.1540 to 1.1570 war support.

Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:

Resistance Levels

• Pivot 1.1635 to 1.1655
• 1.17 to 1.1720 March resistance
• Resistance zone around 1.18, +/- 150 pips
• 1.1830 June 2025 highs

Support Levels

• 1.1540 to 1.1570 war support
• 1.1475 to 1.15 November support
• War lows 1.1410

Safe trades.

• After their ceaseless rally, semiconductors and Mag 7s are pulling back, imposing a stop in stock market euphoria.
• Feeling the pressure of the spike in yields, the Warsh trade could prove more dangerous for overextended tech-heavy stock markets.
• Exploring technical levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500.

Stock markets have surged since the peak of the US-Iran conflict, but this strong trend is finally starting to slow down. After weeks of pushing the market higher, semiconductor giants and the Magnificent 7 are now pulling back, putting a sudden stop to the recent Wall Street excitement.

Geopolitical tensions are still unresolved, and the market's optimism is fading. Even though yesterday saw a big relief rally after news broke that planned US military attacks on Iran were halted, investors could not keep up the positive momentum today.

The lack of immediate conflict is no longer enough to hide changing economic conditions, particularly when it comes to Fed expectations.

Now, stocks are under pressure from a sharp rise in bond yields. The new Warsh trade is especially risky for tech-heavy sectors that have grown too quickly.

With Kevin Warsh confirmed to become the next Federal Reserve Chairman and likely to reduce the central bank's balance sheet, less liquidity is causing investors to rethink the current extreme pricing of high-growth assets. We will learn more on his views this Friday, the date he will be sworn in.

As a result, the strong upward trend that has kept the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising since early April is now breaking down. But for now, the correction remains quite contained.

With the main drivers of the rally now leading the decline, traders are left wondering if the big peace rally has come to an end.

Daily market performance, May 19, 2026. Source: Finviz.

Breaking news: The US President mentioned that he could potentially lean back into attacks on Iran. Make sure to track the latest narrative on the conflict throughout the week.

Let's get ready for potentially rocky action ahead by diving into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

Current Session's Stock Heatmap

Current picture for the stock market, 11:05. Source: TradingView, May 19, 2026.

As you can see, the stock market split continues, with ongoing rebalancing and profit-taking from semiconductors, tech, and Magnificent 7s, leading the pullback in Nasdaq and S&P 500, while healthcare remains the most bid sector, helping the DJIA to resist the selloff with more tenacity than its peers.

Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels

Dow Jones CFD 2H chart. Source: TradingView, May 19, 2026.

After the latest Trump comments, the action in stocks showed a quick wick to the downside, but bulls quickly re-entered to fade the move, before a selling wave made a quick reappearance.

TACO or not, the threat remains a large one for stock markets, particularly traditional sectors. It will be important to keep track of the latest war narratives to see if these are only words or the prelude to something much worse.

Still, the Dow Jones maintains its solid range between 49,000 and 49,900, largely resilient to the outflows seen in other indexes. Keep a close eye on the two range bounds for potential breakouts, with stop orders being a potentially interesting way to enter any buying or selling wave.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 2H 200-MA: 49,500
• 49,900 to 50,000 resistance and early 2026 highs, range top
• ATH resistance: 50,400 to 50,500
• All-time highs: 50,544

Support Levels

• Major pivot: 49,000 to 49,100, range lows
• Momentum support: 48,500
• Pivotal support at 48,000, mid-term bearish below
• Mini support: 47,400 to 47,600

Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels

Nasdaq CFD 2H chart. Source: TradingView, May 19, 2026.

Nasdaq is now embarking on a more significant pullback, forming a bear channel in its latest action.

Still, the pullback technically looks healthy for now, so bulls will want to watch reactions at the 28,500 support.

Any break of that support, however, could open the way for a larger correction, around 26,300, the past ATH, particularly if the mood sours until then.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 28,900 mini intraday resistance
• 29,250 consolidation and momentum pivot
• 29,218 2H 50-period MA
• 29,500 to 29,600 current resistance, ATH

Support Levels

• 28,500 minor support
• 28,000 major psychological resistance now pivot, and channel highs
• 27,500 micro-support
• Prior ATH support: 26,200 to 26,300

S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels

S&P 500 CFD 2H chart. Source: TradingView, May 19, 2026.

After the past week's fake-out above the key bull channel, the S&P 500 is breaking to the downside.

Buyers are stepping in right at the past week's support and attempting a push, but the action still looks quite unsure around current levels.

To get a better idea of where to look next, traders will want to see:

• A bullish impulse and 4H close above 7,380 for the bulls to retake the channel.
• For bears, either a rejection of the support, with a break below 7,320, or a break-retest of the channel, meaning a rejection of 7,370.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 7,400 channel pivot, short-term bearish below
• 7,430 to 7,450 intraday resistance
• 7,525 daily ATH resistance

Support Levels

• 7,320 to 7,340 past week retracement, and channel lows
• Pivotal support: 7,250 to 7,260
• Prior ATH pivot: 7,000 to 7,020
• Minor support: 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal support: 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,300 psychological level, war lows

Keep track of WTI crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe trades.

The dollar regained traction on Tuesday, after significant drop previous day and attacks again key barriers at $99.20/30 (Fibo 61.8% of 100.48/$97.40 descend / daily Ichimoku cloud top) where the action was repeatedly capped in past two sessions.

Persisting uncertainty from geopolitical side and recent shift in Fed policy outlook (rising inflation fuels expectations for rate hike in coming months) offer good support to the greenback.

The dollar advanced almost 0.5% until the mid-US session on Tuesday, on track to generate strong bullish signal on close above these barriers, as well as signal of bullish continuation, after a two-day pause.

Next targets lay at $99.75 (Fibo 76.4%) and $100 (psychological), while daily cloud top reverts to immediate support, followed by $98.94 (broken Fibo 50%) and $98.80 (higher base, reinforced by 55DMA).

Formation of bull-crosses of 10/20DMAs over 100/200DMA’s adds to bullish structure, along with strengthening positive momentum, though with slight warning from overbought Stochastic.

Res: 99.75; 100.00; 100.26; 100.48
Sup: 99.20; 98.80; 98.58; 98.35