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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

ActionForex

No change in USD/JPY's outlook as rise from 155.01 is in progress to retest 160.71 high Strong resistance is expected from there to start the third leg of the near term corrective pattern. On the downside, break of 158.28 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.36) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and some consolidations would be seen above 1.330. Further fall is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.3469) holds. Below 1.3300 will target a retest on 1.3158 support first. However, sustained break of the EMA will dampen the bearish case and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3657 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). However, firm break of 1.3008 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524, with increased risk of bearish reversal.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.7760 is trying to resume after brief retreat. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7923 resistance. Firm break there will argue that fall from 0.8041 has completed as a three wave correction, and bring further rise to retest this high. On the downside, below 0.7837 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8035) holds, fall from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of the larger down trend. Firm break of 0.7603 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

AUD/USD Daily Report

No change in AUD/USD's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.7101 support intact, further rise remains in favor. On the upside, firm break of 0.7277 will resume larger up trend. However, decisive break of 0.7101 will bring deeper decline back towards 0.6832 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays mildly on the upside as rebound from 1.3549 is in progress. This rise is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3480. Further rise would be seen towards 1.3965 resistance. On the downside, below 1.3729 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral again with current rebound. Consolidations from 210.43 is extending with another rising leg. On the downside, firm break of 210.43 will resume the corrective fall from 21658. However, sustained break of 214.40 will bring stronger rise back to retest 216.58 high instead.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 216.58 is steep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 205.91) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, pullback from 187.93 could have completed at 182.01 already. Further rise is in favor as long as 184.02 minor support holds. Above 185.44 will target a retest on 187.93 high. Nevertheless, break of 184.02 minor support will turn bias back to the downside towards 182.01 again.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 187.93 is steep, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.27) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral again with current steep retreat. Range trading should continue between 0.8610/0.8740 first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8740 should pave the way through 0.8788 to retest 0.8863 high. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.8610 will revive the case of bearish trend reversal.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

EUR/AUD's break of 1.6293 resistance confirms short term bottoming at 1.6108. Rise from there is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.6125. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.6458). On the downside, break of 1.6108 will resume larger fall from 1.8554 to 1.5913 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7012) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in EURCHF remains mildly on the downside at this point. Fall from 0.9264 would extend towards 61.8% retracement of 0.8979 to 0.9264 at 0.9088 and possibly below. On the upside, however, break of 0.9174 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to retest 0.9264 high instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9241) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.