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EUR/USD's rebound from 1.1323 extended higher today, but it's still capped below 1.1499 support turned resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 1.1323 will resume the fall from 1.2081 to 100% projection of 1.2081 to 1.1408 from 1.1848 at 1.1175. However, decisive break of 1.1499 will turn bias back to the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.1559) and above.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal after rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0904. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 1.1353, followed by break of 1.1621 resistance, will retain medium term bullishness.

GBP/USD's strong break of 1.3300 support turned resistance suggests that fall from 1.3650 has completed at 1.3139 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3459 resistance. Firm break there will argue that correction from 1.3867 has completed too, and target 1.3657 for confirmation. On the downside, below 1.3264 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3867 are a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). However, firm break of 1.3008 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524, with increased risk of bearish reversal.

USD/CHF's fall from 0.8139 extends lower today but it's still holding on to 0.8012 resistance turned support. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, above 0.8139 will extend the larger rise from 0.7603 to 100% projection 0.7603 to 0.8041 from 0.7600 at 0.8198 next. However, sustained break of 0.8012 will bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 0.7949) and below.

In the bigger picture, while a medium term bottom was formed at 0.7603, it's still early to call for bullish trend reversal. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8213 holds, the larger down trend could still continue through 0.7603 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.7603 will argue that the trend has reversed and turn focus to 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation.

AUD/USD recovers further as consolidations from 0.6864 continues. But upside is limited below 0.6977 support turned resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral, and further decline is in favor. Below 0.6864 will extend the fall from 0.7277 to 0.6832 support. Firm break there will target 0.6756 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top could be formed at 0.7277 after failing to sustain above 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 (2021 high) to 0.5913 (2024 low) at 0.7206. Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 as a correction. But strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while.

USD/CAD dips again as consolidation from 1.4247 extends. Intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper pullback, but downside should be contained above 1.3965 resistance turned support. Above 1.4247 will resume the rally from 1.3480 to 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.4290. Firm break there will pave the way back to 1.4791 high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.4791 has completed as a three wave correction to 1.3480. It's still early to judge if rise from there a corrective bounce, or resumption of the larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). But in either case, retest of 1.4791 high should be seen next.

The June non farm payrolls report did not prove the US economy is breaking. It did something more important for markets: it showed the labor market is not hot enough to force the Fed’s hand. Non-Farm Payrolls rose just 57k, far below expectations of 114k, while May was revised down from 172k to 129k. That was enough to push Dollar sharply lower and reduce the market-implied chance of a September hike from about 65% to 52%.

The details were mixed, but the policy message was clear. Unemployment slipped from 4.3% to 4.2%, while wage growth stayed robust at 0.3% mom and rose from 3.4% to 3.5% yoy. Those figures prevent the report from being a clean dovish signal. Still, weak headline hiring gives the Fed more room to wait, especially with oil prices now far below their Q2 highs. If lower energy prices pull inflation down naturally, Chair Kevin Warsh’s Fed may decide that the current 3.50-3.75% policy rate is already restrictive enough.

Yen’s rally added a second major theme to the session. There is no official confirmation of Japanese intervention, but the reported shift toward surprise “ambush” tactics appears to have done what verbal warnings could not: it made traders afraid of holding crowded short-yen positions. The timing was especially effective, coming just before NFP and creating a buffer for Yen before the data. With payrolls then disappointing, Japan may have needed no actual intervention at all.

Currency performance now reflects two different repricings. Dollar has become the week’s weakest major currency as Fed tightening pressure fades, followed by Loonie and Aussie. Sterling leads, followed by Kiwi and Swiss Franc, helped by resilient risk sentiment and relatively firmer domestic policy expectations. Euro and Yen sit in the middle, but for different reasons: Euro is still weighed by softer ECB expectations, while Yen has been support

US NFP Miss Sharply With 57k Growth, Participation Falls and Wage Growth Holds Firm

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USD/JPY's 150 Pips Fall: A Tactical "Intervention" Masterclass by Japan Ahead of NFP

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EUR/GBP Accelerates Through Key Support as ECB/BoE Yield Convergence Trade Reverses

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Swiss CPI Slows to 0.6% as Imported Price Pressures Fade Further

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Australia Posts Biggest Trade Deficit Since 2015 as Gold, Iron Ore Exports Slump

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

USD/JPY's steep decline and strong break of 161.51 support confirms short term topping at 162.83, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 155.01 to 162.83 at 159.84. Since this level is close to 55 D EMA (now at 159.95), strong support should be seen from there to bring rebound. But overall, consolidations should continue below 162.83 for a while.

In the bigger picture, rise from 139.87 (2025 low) is seen as another rising leg of the long term up trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 155.01 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

USD/JPY's steep decline and strong break of 161.51 support confirms short term topping at 162.83, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 155.01 to 162.83 at 159.84. Since this level is close to 55 D EMA (now at 159.95), strong support should be seen from there to bring rebound. But overall, consolidations should continue below 162.83 for a while.

In the bigger picture, rise from 139.87 (2025 low) is seen as another rising leg of the long term up trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 155.01 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

US job growth slowed much more than expected in June, with Non-Farm Payrolls rising just 57k, well below the consensus forecast of 114k. The previous month's gain was also revised sharply lower to 129k from the initially reported 172k, reinforcing signs that labor market momentum has cooled heading into the second half of the year.

Despite the weak headline, the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged down to 4.2% from 4.3%. However, the improvement was largely explained by a decline in labor force participation, which fell 0.3 percentage points to 61.5%, suggesting fewer people were actively seeking work rather than stronger hiring. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom for a second consecutive month, lifting annual wage growth to 3.5% yoy from 3.4% yoy and indicating that wage pressures remain resilient despite softer employment gains.

The report presents a mixed picture for the Federal Reserve. Hiring has clearly lost momentum, but persistent wage growth and a lower unemployment rate do not point to a labor market that is deteriorating rapidly. Markets are therefore likely to view the data as reducing the urgency for another rate hike without completely eliminating the possibility. Attention will now turn to whether subsequent labor market and inflation data confirm that the recent slowdown reflects a broader moderation in economic activity rather than a temporary soft patch.

Full US NFP release here.

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, above 216.05 will extend the rebound from 210.43 to retest 216.58 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 212.36 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 207.52) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Risk will remain mildly on the downside as long as 186.30 resistance holds. Below 183.14 will bring retest of 182.01 support first. However, firm break of 186.30 will resume the rebound from 182.01 to retest 187.93 high.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 179.37) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.