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UK PMI data for March point to a sharp loss of growth momentum as the Middle East conflict begins to weigh on activity. PMI Manufacturing edged down from 51.7 to 51.4, while PMI Services dropped more notably from 53.9 to 51.2, a six-month low. As a result, PMI Composite declined from 53.7 to 51.0, also marking its weakest level in six months.

The slowdown reflects weakening demand across both sectors. Firms reported lost business linked directly to the conflict, citing heightened risk aversion among customers, disruptions to travel and supply chains, and the impact of higher interest rates. According to S&P Global’s Chris Williamson, output growth has slowed “to a crawl”.

At the same time, inflation pressures are accelerating sharply. Rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions have driven a surge in input costs, with manufacturing cost inflation reaching its highest level since the aftermath of Sterling’s depreciation in 1992.

Full UK PMI flash release here.

Market Overview

The crypto market cap has increased by nearly 4% over the past 24 hours, remaining near the high reached after Trump announced talks with Iran. This outperforms most related markets, where initial momentum has waned. Among the major coins, the relatively smaller Aptos (+15%), Filecoin (+10%), and Toncoin (+7.4%) are performing better than others. Monero (-2%) and Polkadot (+1%) are underperforming. Meanwhile, the crypto market has been trading around its 50-day moving average for the past 10 days, with a few attempts to move above it.

Bitcoin has risen by more than 4.5%, staying just below $71K. Although the leading cryptocurrency did not immediately capitalise on the upward momentum and extend its gains, simply remaining at these high levels now suggests confidence among the bulls. They are gradually developing a more optimistic outlook. However, it would be premature to declare the end of the downtrend until prices settle above $75K, where the March pivot points and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the January-February decline are concentrated.

News Background

According to CoinShares, global investment in crypto funds increased by $230 million last week, representing a fivefold decrease from the previous week. Investments in Bitcoin rose by $219 million, in Solana by $17 million, in Chainlink by $5 million, and in XRP by $3 million. Investments in Ethereum declined by $28 million.

Bitcoin can serve as a liquid asset and an ‘exit point’ for investors amid instability in global markets, notes the hedge fund Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers.

The current decline in Bitcoin is connected to a four-year cycle and profit-taking by long-term holders. The bull run is expected to start in the fourth quarter of this year, according to Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner at SkyBridge Capital.

In mid-March, the average cost of mining a single Bitcoin increased to $88K, according to calculations by Checkonchain. At a market price of about $69K, miners are losing an average of roughly 21%.

Strategy bought an extra 1,031 BTC ($76 million) last week at an average price of $74,326 per coin. The company now owns 762,099 BTC at an average purchase price of $75,694 and aims to raise an additional $44 billion for further acquisitions.

Oil and silver have surpassed Solana and XRP in trading volumes on the decentralised Hyperliquid platform. This exchange is increasingly popular for trading commodity contracts, especially at weekends when traditional markets are closed.

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 4-hour Elliott Wave Charts of Bitcoin. In which, the decline from 14 January 2026 high ended 5 waves in an impulse sequence and showed a lower low sequence in a corrective pattern. Therefore, we knew that the structure of Bitcoin is incomplete to the downside & should see more weakness. So, we advised members to sell the bounces in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

Bitcoin 4-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 3.02.2026

Here’s 4-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 3.02.2026 update. In which, the decline to $59930 low ended 5 waves from the 1.14.2026 high within wave (A) & made a wave (B) bounce. The internals of that bounce unfolded as an Elliott wave zigzag correction where wave A ended at $72174 high. Then a decline to $62525 ended wave B pullback and started the C leg higher towards $74750- $82450 blue box area from where sellers were expected to appear looking for more downside or for a 3 wave reaction lower at least.

Bitcoin Latest 4-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 3.24.2026

This is the Latest 4-hour view from the 3.24.2026 update. In which the BTCUSD is showing a strong reaction lower taking place from the equal legs area allowing shorts to get into a risk-free position shortly after taking the position.

Eurozone PMI data for March point to growing stagflation risk, with rising cost pressures colliding with slowing growth. PMI Manufacturing rose from 50.8 to 51.4, marking a 45-month high. But this strength was offset by weakness in services, where PMI Services fell from 51.9 to 50.1. As a result, PMI Composite declined from 51.9 to 50.5, its lowest level in 10 months.

The divergence highlights an uneven economic picture. While manufacturing continues to benefit from pockets of external demand, the services sector is losing momentum as business confidence deteriorates and new orders weaken. According to S&P Global’s Chris Williamson, output growth has slowed to "near-stagnation", with forward-looking indicators pointing to a heightened risk of a downturn in the coming months.

At the same time, inflation pressures are intensifying sharply. Firms reported the fastest rise in input costs in over three years, driven by higher energy prices and worsening supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. Supplier delays have surged to their highest since mid-2022.

The data present a difficult backdrop for the EB. With growth slowing toward stagnation while price pressures accelerate, policymakers face a challenging trade-off. Williamson noted that the ECB is no longer in a “good place” on the growth-inflation balance, with survey indicators pointing to inflation nearing 3% and GDP growth slipping below 0.1% in the near term.

Full Eurozone PMI flash release here.

Gold prices fell to 4,300 USD per ounce on Tuesday, with quotes remaining under pressure amid the escalating Middle East conflict. Iran has denied reports of any talks with the US, stating that no such contacts have occurred.

Tehran dismissed Donald Trump's statements as an attempt to influence financial markets and has continued its attacks on American targets. Israel, meanwhile, continues to strike Iranian territory.

Gold saw a brief recovery earlier after Trump postponed potential strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure and announced that negotiations had allegedly begun. However, the prospects for resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain, keeping inflation risks elevated.

Since its March peak, gold has lost up to 25% amid rising energy prices. The rally in commodity prices has reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy, weighing on the non-yielding asset.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 4,383 USD level. An upside breakout would open the path for a correction towards 4,850 USD, while a downside breakout could see the downward wave extend to 4,272 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current momentum, with its signal line below the centre line but pointing sharply upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market broke above the 4,300 USD level and completed a wave to 4,414 USD. Looking ahead, a corrective move back to 4,308 USD is likely, followed by an anticipated rise to 4,505 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line remaining above the 20 level and showing potential to rise towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold continues to fall out of favour as the market prioritises inflation risks driven by the protracted Middle East conflict. Despite brief moments of relief following headlines about potential negotiations, the underlying reality of sustained hostilities and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz keeps energy prices elevated, and monetary policy expectations tilted towards tighter conditions. Having lost a quarter of its value from its March highs, gold now faces a challenging environment in which concerns about rising rates repeatedly overshadow safe-haven demand. While technical indicators suggest a short-term bounce is likely, the broader trend remains firmly bearish.

Dow Futures (YM) is correcting the larger degree cycle that began from the April 2025 low. The current decline is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure, which highlights a complex corrective phase rather than a simple retracement. From the all-time high on February 10, 2026 at 50,611, wave W finished at 46,333, while the subsequent rally in wave X reached 48,275, as shown in the one-hour chart. The ongoing wave Y is progressing with internal subdivision that takes the form of a zigzag, consistent with the broader corrective framework.

From the peak of wave X, wave ((a)) dropped to 45,453, followed by wave ((b)) which appears complete at 47,210. In the near term, as long as rallies remain capped below 47,210 and more importantly below 48,275, the expectation is for the Index to continue extending lower. This outlook aligns with Fibonacci extension measurements taken from the February 10, 2026 high. The projected downside target falls within the 100% to 161.8% extension range, corresponding to 41,268 – 43,925. This zone is significant because it represents an area where buyers may emerge, potentially supporting renewed upside momentum once the corrective sequence has matured. The structure therefore suggests that while short-term weakness dominates, the broader cycle retains the potential for recovery once the corrective objectives are satisfied

Dow Futures (YM) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

YM Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54zEkss3ksY

Key takeaways

• Downtrend confirmed, TACO rally likely a trap: Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken below its 200-day moving average and fallen ~10% from its peak, with the recent “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) rebound likely a dead cat bounce rather than a sustainable reversal.
• Macro risks not fully priced by equities: The VIX/MOVE ratio signals that bond volatility is dominating, implying interest rate and stagflation risks remain underpriced in equities, leaving room for further downside.
• Key levels define next move: Immediate resistance sits at 46,710, while a break below 45,190 exposes further downside toward 44,975 and 44,505; failure to reclaim resistance keeps the bearish bias intact.

The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) have tumbled as expected and broken below the key 200-day moving average on Wednesday, 18 March 2026.

On Monday, 23 March 2026, the US Wall Street 30 CFD index extended its bearish move to print an intraday low of 45,213 seen during the London session. All in all, it has plummeted by 10% from its current all-time high printed on 10 February 2026 to Monday’s 23 March 2026 low, reinforced by a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve triggered by rising stagflation risk due to global oil supply shock arising from the US-Iran war.

Risk-on behaviour roared back on Monday, 23 March 2026, after US President Trump sent a social media message that planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure will be paused for five days as both sides are engaged in a renewed negotiation process, despite Iran's repeated assertion that no direct negotiations have been held with the US.

The TACO regime, the popular acronym, “Trump Always Chickens Out,” has its footprints in the global financial markets yesterday, where market participants remembered the ex-post “Liberation Day” events in late April 2025, where Trump walked back on his aggressive tariffs and paused the US’s trade war 2.0 with China, inducing a V-shaped recovery in global stock markets.

Last year’s April “Liberation Day” TACO regime was a reaction to a sell-off in risk assets caused by “words” rather than actions, which are military strikes on stakeholders’ physical infrastructure in the current context, in turn, are likely to have lasting economic damages that cannot be easily reversed by a change of rhetoric from Trump.

Hence, Monday’s TACO-induced rally in risk assets is likely a fake head, also known as a dead cat bounce.

Intermarket analysis and technical analysis suggest that the medium-term V-shaped rally for the US stock market and global equities in general remains elusive now.

The VIX/MOVE ratio has not reached an extreme level on the upside

Fig. 1: VIX/MOVE ratio with S&P 500 medium-term trend as of 24 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is the implied volatility of the S&P 500, a gauge for US equities. On the other hand, the ICE BofA MOVE Index (MOVE) measures the implied volatility of US Treasuries.

Based on the latest price action of the VIX/MOVE ratio as of Tuesday, 24 March 2026, at the time of writing, it is trading below its 20-day moving average with a series of “lower highs and lower lows,” which suggests bond (US Treasuries) volatility is dominating, which implies interest rates uncertainty is the core driver at this juncture, and equity volatility is likely not fully pricing in such macro risk yet (may lead to more potential downside for US stock indices) (see Fig. 1).

Also, the VIX/MOVE ratio has not crossed above its daily Bollinger Bands’ upper limit, where such movements in the past led to or coincided with significant bullish reversals in the S&P 500 on 20 November 2025, 16 October 2025, and 8 April 2025 (see Fig. 1).

Let's now decipher the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspective

Dow Jones (DJIA) – Bearish reaction at 200-day moving average

Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend as of 24 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the 46,710 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 45,237/190 may expose the next intermediate supports at 44,975/810 and 44,505 (see Fig. 2).

On the other hand, a clearance above 46,710 invalidates the bearish reversal scenario for an extension of the mean reversion rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 47,338 and 47,923.

Key elements to support the bearish bias on Dow Jones (DJIA)

• Yesterday’s rally stalled at the 200-day moving average and the upper boundary of the descending channel from the 26 February 2026 high.
• The hourly MACD trend indicator staged a bearish reaction at its horizontal resistance level.

Yesterday, following a false bullish breakout above the psychological $100 level, WTI crude prices fell sharply towards the $85 area. The primary driver of this rapid decline was comments made by the US President.

According to Donald Trump:

• → the United States has postponed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days;
• → productive negotiations are ongoing.

However, Iran later denied these claims, stating that no negotiations to end the conflict were taking place. Moreover, Israel continued its strikes on Iran, while Tehran launched fresh attacks on US assets in the Middle East.

Against this backdrop, the US President’s remarks appear to be a form of verbal intervention aimed at pushing oil prices lower — and, as the XTI/USD chart shows, it is having an effect. Today, WTI crude is trading below last week’s lows.

Technical Analysis of XTI/USD

When analysing WTI price movements on 16 March, we highlighted:

• → strong selling pressure near the psychological $100 level;
• → a support zone that formed after the breakout from a local descending channel.

This support area significantly slowed yesterday’s decline in oil prices. At the same time, recent price action allows for the construction of a broad ascending channel, with its lower boundary acting as an important support level.

From a bearish perspective:

• → the $91.50 level, which acted as support last week, has now turned into resistance;
• → if bulls attempt to develop a rebound from the lower boundary, a key test of their strength will be the $95 level, where bears previously pushed prices below the channel median.

In the near term, a period of consolidation between the lower boundary of the channel and the $91.50 level cannot be ruled out, at least until stronger news catalysts emerge, particularly those related to developments around the Strait of Hormuz.

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BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation in Japan is expected to "accelerate moderately", supported by a tight labor market and evolving corporate pricing behavior. He emphasized that firms are becoming more active in wage and price setting, sustaining a cycle in which wages and prices rise in tandem despite near-term distortions.

Ueda acknowledged that government measures to curb energy costs are currently weighing on headline inflation. However, he stressed that the underlying dynamics remain intact, with labor shortages and stronger wage growth continuing to support inflation over the medium term.

On fiscal policy, Ueda downplayed the long-term impact of a proposed suspension of Japan’s food consumption tax. While the plan could temporarily lower prices, he argued that "rational consumers" would look beyond short-term measures, meaning the effect on medium- and long-term inflation expectations would be limited.

Markets

What a difference one tweet makes. US President Trump claimed he had very good and productive talks with Iran and ordered a five-day pause in military strikes. Iranian officials shortly afterwards denied any such talks having happened but did confirm mediation efforts were under way by other countries including Pakistan and Turkey. It’s impossible for an outsider to know how much is true, especially considering Trump’s war tactics from the recent past. The news hitting the wires contains mixed signals as well, to say the least. Thousands of US Marines are to arrive in the Middle East on Friday, which is now considered the new deadline for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia and the UAE reportedly are inching towards joining the US in the fight against Iran. It could be leverage to push Iran quicker into a deal or the prelude of another escalation in the war. Either way, we’re not seeing the likes of Brent crashing further today. Oil prices, which curiously saw major volumes shortly before Trump’s announcement, dropped yesterday from as high as $114 to an intraday low of $96 before closing around the triple digit mark. It is recovering somewhat currently towards $103. Trump’s tweet also triggered a relief rally in core bonds, with both rate hike bets and inflation concerns easing somewhat. Net daily changes amounted to up to 10 bps at the front in Germany and half that in the US. UK gilts outperformed by tanking 15 bps. We remains cautious about the extent of the recovery. Regardless of any potential short-term truce/peace deal, there are still longer-term consequences tied to the weeks long closure of the Strait, in fertilizers and as a result in food to name just one. Rising food prices have an outsized influence on inflation expectations and may still warrant rate hikes even as the geopolitical situation has improved (which is still highly uncertain, to be sure). ECB vice-president to be Vujcic said they are vigilant for second-round effects (governing council member Radev already sees some indications of that) and warned that the economy and inflation is already departing from the baseline scenario towards worst-case scenarios. Gold prices, enjoying the yield détente, rebounded exactly on the 200dMA around $4100, paring an intraday drop of 10% to just 3%. Stocks shot up sharply with the EuroStoxx50 closing 1.3% higher and similar gains for the main WS indices. The US dollar retreated in the same risk on vein. EUR/USD crawled back north of 1.16. DXY and USD/JPY fell back below 99 and to 158.4 respectively. None of yesterday’s moves are extended in Asian dealings though, (rightly, in our view) highlighting a sense of market hesitancy to go all-in on Trump’s comments. March PMI’s today lose their usual significance for trading because of the developing geopolitical situation. That’s going to be the case for most economic releases for some time to come unfortunately.

News & Views

Japanese headline inflation in Japan declined more than expected in February to 1.3% Y/Y from 1.5%. The closely watched series ex fresh food eased from 2% to 1.6% Y/Y, the lowest level March 2022 and also the first time since that reference than it fell below 2%. The underlying measure ex food and energy price still held well above the 2% reference easing only slightly from 2.6% to 2.5%. However, the decline in headline inflation was mainly due to a lower prices for regulated energy prices with utility prices easing 8.1% M/M and 5.5% Y/Y. Food price inflation printed at -0.4% M/M and 4.0% Y/Y (from 3.9%). With both the underlying inflation holding above expectations and higher energy prices at risk of pushing prices higher (including the measure ex-fresh food) coming months, the case for further BOJ policy normalization/rate hikes remains in place. Markets currently see a change of about 60% of a BoJ rate hike at the next policy meeting on April 28.

Australia and the European this morning signed a trade deal that has been negotiated for about 10 years. In essence the deal removes most tariffs for European goods as is the case for nearly all exports of Austrian critical minerals. However, the agreement still sets quotas on some Australian food products, which is drawing criticism from the local agricultural sector. The agreement comes as both parties accelerated negotiations as they were confronted with the US raising tariffs on imports while China was seen as taking a too dominant position in the supply of critical minerals. At the same time, the two parties also singed a Security and Defense partnership to address global security challenges.