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• Rising Treasury yields are drawing capital away from equities and into the dollar.
• Verbal interventions and expectations of a BoJ rate hike have supported the yen.

The US dollar is gaining ground on the back of increasingly hawkish expectations for the Fed’s rate hikes, pushing up bond yields as investors scale back expectations of a swift end to the conflict in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and global oil reserves are dwindling. Brent has been trading near the upper end of its range since March, risking a return to an upward trend. Against this backdrop, inflation expectations and Treasury yields are rising. As a result, share valuations are shifting, corporate costs are rising, and profits are falling. The S&P 500’s retreat from record highs is strengthening the greenback.

The market is pricing in a 4.65% yield at the 10-year horizon, which is almost 100 basis points above the current Fed rate. The higher inflation rises, the greater the risk premium investors will demand. In such a situation, the Fed needs to adopt a hawkish tone to bring yields down. Only then will the market’s fear that inflation will spiral out of control subside.

However, Anna Paulson, Atlanta Fed President, insists on keeping rates at their current level, describing the current policy as moderately restrictive. Signs of a slowdown in inflation would provide the impetus for a return to rate cuts. Unfortunately, such signs are becoming increasingly scarce. The US economy would have to face a recession for the Fed to cut rates.

This makes Kevin Warsh’s task of easing monetary policy extremely difficult. Donald Trump has previously stated that he would be disappointed if the new Fed chair did not cut rates.

The approach of USDJPY to the 160 mark is forcing the Japanese government to resort to verbal intervention once again. On the sidelines of the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, Satsuki Katayama stated that the authorities would take bold action as necessary.

Scott Bessent met with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and noted that the strength of the economy allows the Bank of Japan to act decisively. The futures market is pricing in a 77% probability of an overnight rate hike at the June Policy Board meeting, which is supporting the yen.

Market Overview

Over the last four days, the crypto market has traded within a very narrow range centred on $2.56 trillion. The market has retreated to the 50-day moving average (MA), which is acting as short-term support despite a rising dollar, falling share prices, and a decline in gold. Among the most popular coins, the day’s leaders were Algorand (+7.1%), Zcash (+2.4%) and Basic Attention (+1.8%). The biggest fallers were Toncoin (-3.9%), Immutable (-3.6%) and Neo (-2.6%).

Bitcoin, as of the end of last month, found support on dips to the $76K region. Over the last couple of days, this support has been reinforced by the 50-day MA, as has the market. On the other hand, resistance at the 200-day MA continues to decline, bringing the bulls’ and bears’ red lines closer together and marking the moment when the market will choose its trend for the coming months.

The 50-day moving average, which has become a support level for the market and Bitcoin, has not proved an obstacle for Ethereum sellers, with its price falling back to 2.1K. The second-largest cryptocurrency has remained in a sell-off since the start of the month, encountering more significant resistance at the 200-week MA. Failure to break above this line is a new development for ETH. This is the fifth instance of a dip below this ultra-long-term curve, but previously, a reversal from lows signalled a sustained bull market.

News Background

Retail investor demand for Bitcoin has fallen by 73% over the last 30 days, CryptoQuant notes. The market structure continues to shift towards large capital, whilst small investors are gradually ‘disappearing from observable on-chain activity’.

The total market capitalisation of tokenised assets is set to reach $4 trillion by 2028, according to Standard Chartered Bank. The development of this market will facilitate wider adoption of decentralised finance (DeFi) protocols.

The Bitcoin-focused DeFi protocol Echo has suspended cross-chain operations following an attack on the Monad network bridge. The actual loss amounted to approximately $816,000.

Around 10% of adult US residents have used cryptocurrency for payments or invested in digital assets, according to a Fed report. In 2021, amid the crypto market boom, the figure reached 12%.

Eurozone inflation accelerated in April as rising energy prices pushed headline CPI higher, though underlying core inflation pressures eased modestly. Final data showed Eurozone CPI rose from 2.6% yoy to 3.0% yoy. Core CPI, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, slowed slightly from 2.3% yoy to 2.2% yoy.

The rebound in headline inflation was driven primarily by energy and services. Services contributed the largest share to annual inflation at 1.38 percentage points, followed by energy at 0.99 percentage points. Food, alcohol and tobacco added 0.46 percentage points, while non-energy industrial goods contributed 0.20 percentage points. The data reinforce the impact of higher global energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict, even as broader domestic price pressures show some signs of stabilization.

Across the broader European Union, annual inflation was finalized at 3.2% yoy. Inflation pressures remained uneven across the region. Sweden recorded the lowest annual inflation rate at 0.5%, followed by Denmark at 1.2% and Czechia at 2.1%. At the other end, Romania posted the highest inflation rate at 9.5%, ahead of Bulgaria at 6.0% and Croatia at 5.4%. Compared with March, inflation fell in only five EU member states while rising in twenty-one, highlighting the broadening nature of price pressures across Europe.

Eurozone CPI Summary — April 2026:

Contributions to Eurozone Inflation:

Full Eurozone CPI final release here.

EUR/USD slipped to 1.1598 on Wednesday, keeping the pair at its lowest level in six weeks. The US dollar is supported by the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, which is increasing inflationary risks and raising expectations of potential Federal Reserve tightening.

US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could resume attacks on Iran within “two to three days” if Tehran does not accept the terms of a peace agreement. The ongoing conflict continues to restrict navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher and increasing global inflationary pressures.

Amid this backdrop, market expectations of a Fed rate cut this year have largely evaporated. Investors are increasingly anticipating another rate hike before the end of 2026.

Attention was also drawn to comments from the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Anna Paulson. She expressed support for maintaining current interest rates and noted that any reduction in borrowing costs would likely only be feasible with a sustained slowdown in inflation.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 EUR/USD chart, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1600, with potential downside towards 1.1550. A corrective rebound to 1.1600 (testing from below) is possible, followed by a further decline towards 1.1460. The MACD indicator confirms this bearish scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued downside momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1614 and is now moving lower towards 1.1550. A rebound to 1.1615 may follow before a further decline towards 1.1460. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, supporting the US dollar. Technical indicators suggest further downside is likely, although short-term corrective moves are possible. Market focus will remain on US-Iran developments and upcoming US economic data for guidance.

AUD/USD is pulling back from local highs, while USD/CAD continues to recover amid a stronger US dollar and ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve minutes. Following an extended rally, commodity-linked currencies have entered a corrective phase, although the current move still appears more like profit-taking and a test of key technical levels than a full trend reversal. Market participants remain cautious ahead of the publication of the FOMC minutes, which could reshape expectations regarding the future path of US interest rates.

Additional investor attention will focus on tomorrow’s batch of Australian economic data, including labour market figures and inflation expectations. These indicators may influence expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next policy steps. At the same time, the US dollar continues to draw support from rising Treasury yields and a broader decline in risk appetite ahead of key Fed-related releases.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD continues to recover after forming a bullish hammer pattern. Previously highlighted levels have already been tested, and if the 1.3720–1.3730 range turns into support, the pair may continue advancing towards 1.3800–1.3840. At the same time, rejection from current levels accompanied by a bearish reversal pattern could trigger the start of a downward correction.

Key events for USD/CAD:

• today at 16:15 (GMT+3): speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr;
• today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
• tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (US).

AUD/USD

The failure of AUD/USD buyers to secure a move above 0.7200 resulted in the formation of a bearish tower pattern on the daily timeframe. Technical analysis of AUD/USD points to the potential development of a downward correction towards 0.7020–0.7050. However, if price returns above 0.7140, the bearish correction scenario could be invalidated.

Key events for AUD/USD:

• today at 21:00 (GMT+3): release of the FOMC minutes;
• tomorrow at 02:00 (GMT+3): Australia Services PMI;
• tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT+3): Australian full employment change.

Overall, commodity currencies are entering a corrective phase following a prolonged rally, while the US dollar is receiving support from expectations surrounding the FOMC minutes and rising US Treasury yields. Market reaction to the Fed’s rhetoric will become the key driver for further AUD/USD and USD/CAD price action: more hawkish signals from policymakers could reinforce the current dollar rally, while softer commentary may restore demand for commodity currencies and limit the scope of the correction.

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Bitcoin’s latest rally is starting to look less like the beginning of a new bull run and more like a distribution phase inside a tightening global liquidity environment.

Only weeks ago, markets were hoping that $80K could become the new floor for Bitcoin — a psychological base strong enough to launch another powerful leg higher. Instead, the mood has shifted sharply. Bitcoin has followed the broader risk-off move lower this week as surging Treasury yields, rising Dollar strength, and deteriorating market sentiment increasingly pressure speculative assets across the board.

The institutional flow picture has deteriorated quickly. Bitcoin ETFs were already seeing steady outflows late last week, but the pace accelerated sharply again at the start of this week. Combined outflows have now surpassed $1 billion, abruptly ending a six-week streak of positive inflows that had previously supported the recovery narrative. What was supposed to be fresh breakout momentum is turning into systematic profit-taking.

The timing is not accidental. US Treasury yields are exploding higher as markets rapidly abandon expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and begin repricing a much more restrictive higher-for-longer environment. As yields rise toward 5%, Bitcoin faces a difficult reality: investors can suddenly earn near risk-free returns at levels not seen in years. That dramatically weakens the appeal of non-yielding speculative assets, particularly when global liquidity conditions are tightening and broader risk appetite is fading.

Technically, Bitcoin is facing a major resistance wall above. Price action has already touched the upper boundary of its rising channel near 81,347. There are both the 38.2% retracement of 126,289 to 59,866 at 85,239 and the 55 W EMA near 85,027 ahead. This confluence zone is likely to be extremely difficult to overcome decisively unless broader macro conditions improve materially.

Meanwhile, downside risks are starting to dominate the technical picture. Firm break below 74,880 support would strongly suggest the rebound from 59,866 has already ended as a corrective bounce. In that case, Bitcoin could quickly slide toward the channel floor near 69,616 at least, with risk of revisiting $60k psychological level, as rising Treasury yields continue draining liquidity out of crypto and back into Dollar assets.

Markets

The ‘highest since narrative’ that recently haunted the long end of bond curves in multiple countries yesterday culminated in the US 30-y yield breaking beyond the 5.15%/5.17% 2025/2023 peak levels. The tenor reached the highest level since 2007. Markets reposition as supply disruptions of oil and other commodities/products might cause inflation to stay higher for longer, but that’s only part of the explanation. A yield decomposition learns that the latest upleg in LT (US) yields is at least as much driven by higher real yields alongside the protracted rise in inflation expectations. This suggests a broader rise in (fiscal and other) risk premia which, if lasting, might spread to other markets. Returning to the day-to-day observations, there was again no hard indication yesterday that the US and Iran are moving closer to a solution of the conflict/a workable reopening of Hormuz. US President Trump at least keeps the threat of another “Big Hit” in order to accept US priorities. In this context, Brent oil held in the $109/110 p/b area. Markets at least see these levels as too high to be ignored by most central banks. US yields added between 5.75 bps (30-y) and 9.1 bps (5-y) on a daily basis, the belly of the curve underperforming. US money markets fully embrace the idea of a 25 bps Fed rate hike by the turn of the year. German yields rose between 4.9 bps (5-y) and 2.9 bps (30-y). Market discount a June rate hike (85%) followed by two other steps by the end of the year. Most ECB policy makers avoid specific guidance on the June meeting and hold to a data-dependent approach. Still Austrian ECB member Kocher at least clarified his reaction function, citing that there will be “no alternative” to a June rate hike unless there is an improvement in the Middle East conflict by then. The rise in (real) yields might become a drag on the equity performance. US Indices yesterday eased between 0.5-1%. Risk-off and higher real yields also support the dollar. DXY is testing the 99.34 resistance (end April top). EUR/USD is at risk of falling below the 1.16 big figure.

Asian equity markets remain in risk-off modus this morning. A closely watched 20-y Japanese Bond auction attracted solid investor interest (above average bid-cover) after the recent rise in yields. The 20-y yield at some point declined almost 10 bps (compared to opening levels), but part of that move is currently already reversed. For now there is hardly any positive spill-over to the US treasury market (30-y unchanged at 5.18%). The Japan Fin Min reiterates willingness to intervene to support the yen while US Treasury Secretary Bessent reconfirmed his confidence in BoJ Governor Ueda being able to successful run policy to bring the yen in line with fundamentals. Yen gains, if any, were temporary and limited (USD/JPY 159). Later today, the eco calendar is again thin. The Fed publishes the Minutes of the April policy meeting. UK April CPI inflation, published this morning, printed softer than expected (headline 2.8%Y/Y from 3.3%; core 2.5% from 3.1%; services 3.2% from 4.5%). However output PPI was higher than expected. In a first reaction sterling holds near EUR/GBP 0.866. This afternoon BoE governor Bailey and some of his MPC members will testify before a Parliament committee. After the close, Nvidia results might be interesting to see the market reaction in a context of rising (real) yields.

News & Views

The European Commission in a package unveiled yesterday presented several measures to tackle high prices of crop nutrients as well as secure supplies with the aim of avoiding food price spikes similar to 2022 when farmers have burned through supplies bought before the Iran war erupted. That could happen as soon as the end of the year. Around a third of globally traded fertilizers transited through the now-closed Strait of Hormuz. The Commission will explore stockpiling fertilizer supplies, requiring member states to have seasonal or minimum stocks, and possibly move to joint procurement of fertilizers and their components.

New Zealand households expect inflation to quicken to 5.6% (mean) in the year ahead, the June quarterly survey by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand revealed this morning. This compares to the 5.2% of the March survey. Inflation two years ahead was seen at 4.9%, materially up from 3.4%. The central bank is targeting 1-3% over the medium term but that’s not even reachable, according to households, in five years (4%, from 3.3%). Current inflation stands at 3.1% (Q1 2026) but families are perceiving price increases to the tune of 7.5%.

In focus today

In the US, the minutes from FOMC's April meeting will be released tonight. Markets are looking for further forward-looking views after the divided rate decision. We will also keep an eye out for forward guidance on the Fed's balance sheet operations, namely the reserve management purchases of T-bills, which were not discussed in the press release after the meeting.

In the euro area, we receive the final inflation print for April which is expected to confirm the flash release with headline at 3.0% y/y and core at 2.2% y/y. We expect the details to confirm that the inflationary impact of the war in Iran is currently visible only in energy components.

In Denmark, the flash GDP for Q1 will be released. We expect Q1 GDP growth will land at a solid 1% q/q, driven primarily by strong pharma growth, as indicated by recent industrial production figures.

In the UK, CPI inflation for April is released. The UK has been on a continuous disinflationary path until the surge in oil prices. This is now likely to trigger another rebound in inflation, adding pressure on households. The Bank of England (BoE) will look closely for second-round effects, but with the cooling labour market in mind, the recession risk is probably more imminent than the inflation risk.

Overnight, Japanese May PMIs will be released. Q1 GDP showed stronger-than-expected 2.1% annualised growth, but April PMIs signalled softer overall momentum and weaker business confidence. May's readings will be key to see whether resilience is fading further amid higher energy costs, supply chain concerns and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In the US-Iran war, conflicting signals are keeping a geopolitical risk premium in oil and natural gas prices. Trump has again threatened to resume strikes, giving Tehran "two to three days" to make a deal and saying the United States is "not leaving Iran yet" and is "going to do it right". Iran's army spokesman has warned that Tehran would open new fronts if attacked. Despite some diplomatic overtures, meaningful progress in peace talks has yet to materialise. Vice President Vance says negotiations have made "a lot of progress" and that neither side wants renewed fighting but also stresses that the US is prepared to act militarily if Iran rejects a nuclear deal. The US Senate has advanced a War Powers Resolution to constrain further escalation.

What happened yesterday

Global bond yields rose as inflation expectations accelerated and markets increasingly priced the next Fed move as a hike rather than a cut. The selloff in US Treasuries continued, with the 30Y yield briefly reaching its highest level since 2007, as fiscal expansion and rising term premia weighed on the long end of the curve. We see a similar move in Europe, with government bond yields rising. In Japan, record-high government bond yields confirm that investors are adjusting to a world of higher interest rates.

In the UK, labour market data softened as payrolls fell by 100k in April and unemployment edged up to 5.0% in March. Wage indicators painted a mixed picture. Underlying regular pay growth (excl. bonuses) eased to 3.4% in March, while average weekly earnings on a three‑month basis rose to 4.1%, above expectations of 3.8%, partly boosted by public sector payments. The BoE's preferred measure, private sector regular pay growth, slowed to 3.0% y/y. Employers stated that in the face of higher payroll taxes and tighter labour rules, they have cut hiring and vacancies. The figures, alongside the drag from the Iran war, prompted investors to scale back BoE rate hike expectations.

In the US, ADP's weekly employment data point to stable job growth, with private employers adding an estimated average of just over 42,250 jobs per week in the four weeks to 2 May 2026. While not usually a market mover, the release does continue the string of solid high-frequence labor market data received over the past weeks.

Equities: Equities sold off again yesterday, with the same narrative that has dominated since late last week: the combination of debt concerns, inflation worries and oil/geopolitics still overriding an otherwise constructive macro and earnings backdrop. That said, yesterday's negative catalyst was not oil. Crude was marginally lower, and the pressure came much more clearly from rates, especially the long end of the curve, led by the US late in the session. The equity rotation was therefore very consistent with a rates-driven risk-off move: defensive value, minimum volatility and energy outperformed. Some pause and reversal in the cyclical/tech trade should not be seen as particularly unusual after the extreme equity returns and very aggressive rotation into cyclicals that we saw from the 30 March lows into mid-May. Still, our base case is not that long-end yields continue to rise on debt fears, just as our base case remains that the Strait of Hormuz reopens relatively soon. It goes without saying, as long as this is the dominating narrative, then we are wrong in our view. This morning, the same dynamics are visible in Asia, with Japanese equities leading the decline, while semiconductors are less under pressure today. European and US futures are also lower this morning.

FI and FX: With the sell-off in global bonds taking another leg yesterday, risk appetite has again turned sour and the USD has strengthened. EUR/USD is now back testing the 1.16-figure while risk sensitive currencies in AUD, MXN and the CEEs have come under renewed pressure. Notably, the Scandies have kept up relatively well so far despite the negative nature behind US bond yields posting new highs, real rates moving higher and curves bear flattening.

UK inflation slowed more sharply than expected in April, offering the Bank of England some near-term relief as both headline and core price pressures cooled to multi-year lows.

Headline CPI decelerated from 3.3% yoy to 2.8% yoy, below expectations of 3.0% yoy and the lowest level since March 2025. Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, slowed from 3.1% yoy to 2.5% yoy, undershooting forecasts of 2.7% yoy and marking its lowest reading since July 2021.

The details of the report showed a notable easing in domestic inflation pressures, particularly in the services sector. CPI services inflation fell sharply from 4.5% yoy to 3.2% yoy, a development likely welcomed by policymakers given the BoE’s focus on sticky services prices and wage-driven inflation. Meanwhile, goods inflation edged higher from 2.1% yoy to 2.4% yoy. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.7% in April 2026.

Still, the BoE is unlikely to interpret the report as a definitive inflation victory. Much of the downside surprise appears linked to favorable base effects, as this year’s prices were compared against the sharp energy-related increases seen a year earlier. Policymakers are also expected to remain cautious given the recent surge in global oil prices and broader energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict, which could gradually feed back into supply chains and consumer prices in the months ahead.

Even so, today’s data significantly lowers the risk of the BoE delivering another rate hike in the near term and strengthens the case for a patient wait-and-see stance.

Full UK CPI release here.

It’s the same story, different day. Trump yesterday first called off an attack on Iran, then said he would resume strikes if they can’t agree on a deal. NATO said it could help secure shipping routes around the Strait of Hormuz if disruptions persist into early July. Europeans reportedly eased some sanctions on Russia as energy security concerns remain high.

Alas, geopolitical uncertainties continue. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill, world oil inventories continue tightening, and oil prices keep rising. The latter fuels global inflation expectations and pushes global yields higher on rising bets that central banks may have to fight price pressures despite the worsening economic outlook. The OECD revised its economic outlook lower, factoring in the prolonged Middle East conflict and its global repercussions.

In this context, the US 30-year yield has climbed back to levels last seen before the subprime crisis, while the US 10-year yield approached the 4.70% mark as the Japanese 10-year yield soared toward 2.80% — levels last seen before 2000 — and consolidated near that level this morning.

The gap between US and Japanese yields is approaching an uncomfortable zone — around 190bp for the 10-year spread — increasing the risk of a carry unwind that could send another shockwave across global risk markets. I believe that a move toward the 2.90–3% range in the 10-year JGB yield could trigger a broader reverse carry trade, pulling USDJPY lower along with global equities.

On the FX front, the USDJPY is softer this morning, but not because of the narrowing yield differential — which makes US dollar returns less attractive — but because Japanese officials again warned they could intervene if the pair rises further. This morning, USDJPY is trading between its 50-DMA on the downside and 159.10 on the upside. Any move higher could trigger another intervention and another short-term relief rally for the yen, without necessarily leading to a sustainable bearish shift in USDJPY.

On the equities front, the S&P 500 fell for a third straight day on the back of rising yields, the Nikkei is down more than 1.6% at the time of writing, and the Kospi is retreating nearly 2% as investors’ focus shifts from shiny earnings to geopolitical turmoil.

It’s in this chaotic market — where earnings optimism has started to lose momentum — that Nvidia will announce its Q1 results today, after the bell.

All eyes on Nvidia!

Expectations are, of course, sky high. The company is expected to report around $79bn in revenue — roughly 15% higher than last quarter and nearly 80% above the same quarter last year.

Margins are also expected to remain exceptionally strong, around 75%, confirming that Nvidia still enjoys enormous pricing power despite the massive Blackwell ramp and rising competition.

But Nvidia’s earnings no longer carry the same existential weight they did at the very beginning of the AI craze. Back then, markets were obsessed with training AI models. GPUs became essential because they are incredibly efficient at handling thousands of calculations simultaneously — exactly what AI training requires. Imagine trying to get from point A to B by simultaneously testing millions of possible paths through C, D, F, X, Y or Z. GPUs are built for that kind of parallel processing power. CPUs, on the other hand, are designed for sequential computations.

As such, once the models are trained with GPUs, the focus increasingly shifts toward inference — running the trained model — where TPUs and CPUs can also play a major role, while memory chips are needed to store and process information efficiently.

That’s why GPUs say more about the raw power and evolution of AI models, while CPUs and memory chips increasingly say more about real-world AI adoption and scaling. This growing importance of CPUs and memory infrastructure is also why traditional CPU and memory chip makers have taken over part of the AI narrative — and why Nvidia is developing its own CPU technologies within its next-generation Vera Rubin platform.

Investors will therefore closely watch whether the company can maintain strong margins while scaling production and preparing the transition toward the next-generation Vera Rubin platform — designed for the next phase of AI focused on massive-scale inference, reasoning and AI “factories.”

And the competition for running models efficiently at lower cost is fierce. Besides traditional chipmakers like AMD and Intel, Nvidia’s biggest clients — Big Tech companies like Amazon, Google and Meta — are all working on their own in-house chips to build the most energy- and cost-efficient alternatives to Nvidia’s ultra-powerful premium products.

Nvidia closed near $220 per share yesterday, around $16 below the all-time high reached last week. Options markets are currently pricing an implied move of roughly 6% to 8% in either direction following the earnings announcement. But the direction is difficult to predict. Expectations are now so elevated that even a solid beat may not trigger the euphoric rallies seen during the early AI boom.

Regardless of the strength of Nvidia’s results, three risks are piling up as Big Tech companies continue to trade at near-perfect valuations:

• Prospects of tighter financial conditions linked to the Middle East conflict, which could slow AI adoption and scale back revenue expectations
• Capacity constraints due to supply chain disruptions, which could limit production, increase costs and weigh on profit expectations
• Rising competition, which could eat into margins.

And that’s why even great results from Nvidia may not prevent profit-taking that would feel healthy at current valuations.