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The euro retreats ahead of the ECB interest rate decision. On the daily chart, the single currency is still consolidating its gains after breaking above September’s high of 0.9850. The supply zone near the recent peak (0.9940) seems to be a hard hurdle to clear. The choppy price action is a sign of hesitation due to a lack of catalyst. 0.9820 is the closest support and the RSI’s oversold condition may attract some bargain hunters. A bounce above the psychological level of 0.9900 could trigger a sustained recovery.

The US dollar edged higher after November’s PPI beat estimates. Sentiment remains fragile after the price made a U-turn at 137.80, which was a brief support in the previous consolidation. Some buying interest has emerged from 135.40 with the RSI returning to the neutral area. A break above 137.80 would extend gains to the top of a faded rebound at 139.70. Only its breach could lighten up the mood and attract more buyers. On the downside, 133.70 would be a critical floor to keep the current bounce valid.

EUR/USD awaits double catalyst

The euro consolidates as both central banks will fire their last salvos of the year. Inflation expectations remain high in the eurozone and bolster the likelihood of a 50 bp hike by the ECB. But market dynamics are driven by the greenback. Despite the euphoria from Powell’s hint of slower tightening, robust jobs and services data have sowed doubt about the terminal rate, which may end up above 5% if the Fed vows to keep interest rates restrictive for a prolonged period of time. Only a soft US CPI reading could keep the pivot hope alive and by extension the dollar in check. 1.0900 is the hurdle ahead and 1.0300 the first support.

GBP/USD braces for volatile week

The pound steadies ahead of key economic data and the BoE’s policy meeting. Sterling continues to recover after the previous administration's mini-budget fiasco, which suggests that traders have regained faith in the UK’s policymaking. Both employment and inflation could build up volatility leading up to the BoE rate decision on Thursday. Governor Andrew Bailey has been striving to balance market expectations by saying that the peak rate could be less than currently priced in. The market is betting on a 50 bp rate rise, but a dovish forward guidance could weigh on the currency. 1.1900 is the first support and 1.2660 the next stop.

UK Oil falls as demand outlook worsens

Oil prices slump over growing recession concerns. As the price cap on Russian crude may have marginal impact on production, traders have shifted their attention to the demand side. The prospect of more interest rate hikes is a reminder that the world has entered a cyclical downturn. In China, despite relaxed restrictions, surging infections could hamper economic activities in the coming months as the country learns to live with the virus. The market mood is extremely pessimistic as even the gradual reopening has failed to support the price. Brent crude is reaching a 12-month low at 70.00, and 87.00 is the closest resistance.

Nasdaq 100 hesitates over policy uncertainty

The Nasdaq 100 softens as the Fed policy remains uncertain. Investors struggle to grasp a clear direction as strong US economic data contradict the Fed’s moderate tone. The market is also contemplating the possibility and timing of a downturn as a steep rise in borrowing costs stretches corporate America, and growth sectors in particular. Inverted yield curve, a market indicator of a looming recession may keep investors on their toes. Blue chip indices S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30 have outperformed the Nasdaq in the recent rebound, a sign that risk appetite is still lacking. 12800 is the first hurdle and 10600 a critical support.

Friday’s US PPI print was soft, but not soft enough to meet market expectations. The US producer prices in November rose 7.4% since a year ago, from 8% printed a month earlier, and more than 11% printed in summer. But still slightly higher than 7.2% that analysts predicted.

The kneejerk reaction was as expected. The US dollar spiked following the data, closed the week on a strong footage in America and opened the week on a strong footage in Asia. Trend and momentum indicators turned positive last week, and the dollar could gain more field before two important events that will mark the trading week: US November CPI on Wednesday, and the FOMC decision on Wednesday.

Another disappointment?

Looking at the expectations, inflation is expected to have slowed to 7.3% in November from 7.7% printed a month earlier. But because the consensus number is relatively low, we may have another Friday’s PPI-like disappointment at tomorrow’s US CPI release, which could further boost the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks before Wednesday’s FOMC decision, fuel the US dollar, send the US yields higher and the stocks lower.

One good news about inflation, however, is that the 1-year inflation expectation unexpectedly declined to the lowest levels since September 2021. This is excellent news for the Fed, as inflation expectations are self-fulfilling, and have the power to bring inflation down just by changing the way people make their decisions.

But in reality, none of it will matter for the Fed’s policy decision this week.

Important note before the FOMC decision

There is a gap between what the Fed says it will do, and what the market thinks, and prices the Fed will do, even a tiny hawkish message could already weigh on the mood before Xmas.

For now, the pricing in the market matches a terminal Fed rate of less than 5%, while the dot plot is expected to reveal a higher median rate forecast for 2023 of around 5.125%. This means that there is room for a hawkish rectification in market pricing both in the US dollar, and in equities.

In the medium-run, while I believe that a hawkish correction should not change the dollar’s medium-term outlook - which is bearish, I think that the stock markets could take another dive, as the recession worries should keep appetite limited.

The S&P500 failed to clear an important ytd resistance last week, and slipped 3% during the course of the week. While Nasdaq tumbled 4%, having flirted with the 100-DMA the week before.

We shall see both indices extend losses this week.

Other than the Fed…

The European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Norges Bank are all due to raise interest rates this Thursday.

In the Eurozone, the ECB will probably raise its policy rates by 50bp. But given that inflation advanced to double-digit numbers this year, we can’t really rule out the possibility of a third consecutive 75bp hike from the ECB.

The European policymakers are expected downgrade their growth forecasts, and upgrade their inflation projections. If that’s the case, a too-fast rate hike may not be ideal, and we shall end up with a 50bp hike, with the hint that the QT in Europe would start by March next year – which is an extra hawkish announcement.

The EURUSD recovered more than 11% since the end of September, thanks to a broadly softer US dollar, and we shall see the single currency aim for a stronger recovery. Although the direction in the short run could be blurred by the Fed decision, and the reaction to a probably hawkish decision.

Across the Channel, the Bank of England (Bo) is also expected to raise its rates by 50bp, to push the lending rate to 3.5%, the highest since 2008. Even though the BoE should keep raising rates to fight its double-digit inflation, the freefall in British home prices and the rapid slowdown in economic growth hint that the BoE cannot push too hard, either.

Cable rebounded almost 20% since the Liz Truss dip back in September, and could extend gains toward 1.30, not because the pound will do great thanks to a flourishing British economy, but because the US dollar is expected to depreciate in the coming months. And as it is the case for the euro, the short-term direction for sterling-dollar is unclear, as the US dollar’s move into and posterior to the Fed decision will determine the next short term direction in Cable.

Here in Switzerland, the National Bank is also expected to hike the policy rate by 50bp to 1%. Inflation in Switzerland has been much more moderated compared to Europe or to the US thanks to a strong franc. The dollar-franc lost more than 8% since end of December, and the pair should extend losses to 0.88-0.90 region.

Market movers today

We start the week in a quiet fashion, with Danish November inflation figures the data highlight in Scandinavia today. We expect a decline in Danish CPI inflation in November to 9.7% from 10.1% in October on the back of lower energy inflation.

Later this week, central banks will take the market focus, with the Fed meeting on Wednesday, followed by ECB, Bank of England and Norges Bank on Thursday. Amid high inflation pressures, further rate hikes are on the agenda this week, but markets will likely take their cue from the rate guidance for 2023.

The 60 second overview

Market sentiment: Markets remain in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the flurry of central bank meetings later in the week. Stock markets are down in Asia after media reported chaos around many Chinese hospitals as a result from easing of pandemic curbs. European stock market futures also point towards a weaker opening. In line with a weaker risk sentiment and overall dollar strength, EUR is a tad weaker against USD this morning at around 1.051. See our previews for ECB and Fed from last week: Research Euro area: ECB preview - A hawkish 50bp, 8 December, and Research US: Fed preview - Tightening pressure to persist into 2023, 8 December.

BOE preview: We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to hike the Bank Rate by 50bp on 16 December bringing it to 3.50%, see Research UK: Bank of England preview - Back to 50bp as BOE nears end of hiking cycle, 12 December. Markets are currently pricing slightly above 50bp for the meeting next week (55bp). As a result of a more balanced fiscal policy, market conditions have cooled off and broadly returned to conditions we saw prior to the mini-budget. We thus expect a return to a slower hiking pace.

UK: While market turbulence in the UK has eased, the country is now heading into a new kind of chaos as strikes are planned for almost every day for the rest of the month affecting hospitals, public transport and postal services. Unions are demanding inflation-matching wage increases while the government is offering them 5%. The most wide-spread union protests since the 1980s are expected to cause disruption for millions of people in the middle of the busy Christmas season.

Ukraine: In an effort to secure international support ahead of the coldest and darkest winter time, Ukraine's President Zelenskyi talked to US, French and Turkish leaders yesterday over phone. In an assuring note, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pledged that support for Ukraine's military and economy would continue "for as long as it takes". Meanwhile, Kremlin is showing no sign of backing off. Yesterday, Russian forces used Iranian-made drones to target two energy plants in Odesa, leaving 1.5 million people without electricity in the country's south.

Equities were lower on higher yields and hotter inflation data on Friday. So, it is still apparent in markets that inflation is the governing factor while earnings is secondary. Yet, note that defensives outperformed - not value - despite hotter inflation which is a difference from the past quarter. Communications, real estate and financials closed around the zero line while mainly industrials, materials and energy sold off. S&P 500 closed down -0.7% and -3% for the week. This weakness correlates well with the positioning support that ran out last week when VIX moved higher. Hence, the ones arguing for a bear market rally driven by positioning - including us - are so far correct.

FI: It is going to be a very busy week in terms of central bank meetings as we have the Federal Reserve, ECB, BoE, SNB and Norges Bank meetings this week. The Federal Reserve is meeting on Wednesday, and the consensus expectation is for a 50bp rate hike. ECB, BoE, SNB and Norges Bank are all meeting on Thursday, and we expect 50bp from ECB, BoE and SNB, respectively and finally 25bp from Norges Bank.

This is fully priced in and should not have much impact on the global financial markets. The interesting part will be how much the central banks will continue to hike after meetings on Thursday - will they signal a pivot or just continue to stress the need for rate hikes despite the looming recession.

FX: EUR/USD starts the week off around 1.05, having traded as high as 1.06 early last week. In Scandie space, the 10.90-level remains the centre of gravity for the SEK whereas the NOK lost 1% against the EUR last week. Muted trading in the GBP amid mixed markets.

Credit: Credit markets ended the week on a positive note. iTraxx main tightened 2.9bp to close at 89.1bp and iTraxx crossover tightened 14.7bp to close at 455.3bp. Primary markets however, saw very little activity despite the positive tone in secondary markets.

UK GDP grew 0.5% mom in October, better than expectation of 0.4% mom. Services grew 0.6% mom and was the main driver of growth in GDP. Production was broadly flat for the month. Construction grew 0.8% mom. GDP is estimated to be 0.4% above is pre-coronavirus levels in February 2020.

In the three months to October, compared with the three months to July, GDP contracted -0.3%. Services was down -0.1%. Production dropped -1.7%. Construction rose 1.1%.

Full GDP released here.

Also released, industrial production came in at 0.0% mom, -2.4% yoy, versus expectation of -0.3% mom, -4.2% yoy. Manufacturing was at 0.7% mom, -4.6% yoy, versus expectation of -0.1% mom, -6.3% yoy. Goods trade deficit narrowed to GBP -14.5B, versus expectation of GBP -15.0B.

EUR/USD: Ahead of the Fed and ECB Meetings

Two key events await us next week. The first is the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on Wednesday, December 14. Recall that the key interest rate on the dollar is 4.00% at the moment, and that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed on November 30 that the pace of rate growth may slow down in December. These words of his convinced market participants that the rate would be increased in December not by 75 basis points (bp), but by only 50 bp. The actual developments on December 14 will set the mood of the regulator for 2023. Naturally, an important role here will be played not only by the decision on the interest rate itself, but also by the economic forecasts of the FOMC and the press conference of the management of this organization following the meeting.

It is highly likely that the decision of the Committee members will be influenced by data on inflation in the US: the November values of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be announced on the eve of the meeting, on Tuesday, December 13.

The second event is the ECB meeting on Thursday, December 15. The interest rate on the euro is 2.00% at the moment, and according to forecasts, the European regulator will also raise it by 50 bp, which will keep the advantage in favor of the US currency: 4.50% against 2.50%. As in the case of the Fed, the comments and forecasts of the ECB leaders, which will be made after this meeting, will also be important for market participants.

As for the past week, the DXY Dollar Index did not manage to win back at least some of the losses it has suffered since the end of September. This time it was hampered by statistics from China. On the one hand, China's manufacturing sector continues to deflate: the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been falling by 1.3% for the second month in a row. On the other hand, inflation is slowing down: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November was 1.6% against 2.1% a month ago. In this situation, the Chinese government has taken a course of easing monetary policy (QE) to support the country's economy. A survey conducted by Bloomberg showed that the market expects the People's Bank of China to cut interest rates on the yuan as early as Q1 2023. Against this background, stock indices, primarily Asian ones, went up, and the dollar went down. Optimism over the easing of strict COVID-19 restrictions in China also supported the positive tone in equity markets.

Additional pressure on the US currency was exerted by statistics on the US labor market. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits became known on Thursday, December 08. This figure showed a slight increase from 226K to 230K, which was fully in line with the forecast. But repeated applications have reached a maximum over the past ten months: 1671K, which is also a signal for the Fed, pointing to problems in the economy.

On the contrary, European macro statistics looked good. Thus, the GDP of the Eurozone in Q3 turned out to be higher than the forecast, 0.3% vs. 0.2% (q/q) and 2.3% vs. 2.1% (y/y).

As a result, EUR/USD abandoned a deep correction and, having reached a local low of 1.0442 on December 07, reversed and rose to the level of 1.0587 on December 09. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan made modest adjustments to the prices at the very end of the working week, after which the pair finished at 1.0531.

50% of analysts count on its further growth, 25% expect the pair to turn south. The remaining 25% of experts point to the east. It should be noted here that when moving to a medium-term forecast, the number of bearish supporters who expect the pair to drop below the parity level of 1.0000 increases sharply, up to 75%.

The picture is different from the oscillators on D1. All 100% of the oscillators are colored green, while 10% is in the overbought zone. Among the trend indicators, the 100% advantage is on the green side.

The nearest support for EUR/USD is located at the 1.0500 horizon, then there are levels and zones 1.0440, 1.0375-1.0400, 1.0280-1.0315, 1.0220-1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0070, followed by the parity zone 0.9950-1.0010. Bulls will meet resistance at levels 1.0545-1.0560, 1.0595-1.0620, 1.0745-1.0775, 1.0865, 1.0935.

We will see other important macro statistics next week in addition to the above. Thus, data on consumer inflation (CPI) and economic sentiment (ZEW) in Germany will be released on Tuesday, December 13. And business activity indicators in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the Eurozone (PMI), as well as the November value of the European Consumer Price Index (CPI) will become known on Friday, December 16.

GBP/USD: Ahead of the Bank of England Meeting

Not only the ECB, but also the Bank of England (BoE) will decide on the interest rate on Thursday, December 15. It should be noted that the regulator of the United Kingdom was one of the first among the G10 Central Banks, following the Fed, to curtail the policy of quantitative easing (QE). It raised the pound interest rate by 75 bps in November. However, it is expected that like the ECB and the Fed, it will raise it by only 50 bp in December, after which it will reach 3.50%. According to a survey conducted by Reuters, 96% of economists have voted for this step. And only 4% of them insist on 75 bp.

Most respondents believe that the recession will be long and shallow. According to forecasts, the economy contracted by 0.2% in Q3 2022 (exact data will be known on December 12) and will decrease by another 0.4% in Q4. The fall in the first three quarters of 2023 may be 0.4%, 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.

As for inflation, the survey conducted by the BoE showed that the fears of the UK population about it have slightly decreased. If we talk about economists' forecasts, it is expected that in it will reach a peak of 10.9% in Q4, and then it will decline. The current value is more than five times higher than the target level of 2.0%. And the Bank of England will be forced to continue to raise the rate to fight inflation, despite the threat of a deepening recession. It is predicted that BoE will raise it in Q1 and Q2 2023, another 50 bp and 25 bp, respectively, to 4.25%.

GBP/USD, as well as EUR/USD, has been developing an upward trend since the end of September taking advantage of the weakness of the dollar. In addition, it is being pushed up by the end of the fiscal micro-crisis and the Bank of England's actions to tighten monetary policy and support the British government bond market. GBP/USD reached its maximum value on December 05 at the height of 1.2344, however, it did not go further north and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.2260 in anticipation of the decisions of the coming week.

Strategists at the German Commerzbank consider the current situation only a temporary respite and expect increased pressure on the British currency. "At present," they write, "the relief that the fiscal crisis has been brought under control prevails, and there are no signs of a further worsening of the energy crisis. In our opinion, this is only a temporary respite for the pound. The deteriorating economic outlook, relatively prudent monetary policy […] and continued high inflation continue to put major pressure on the pound."

The median forecast for the near term copies the forecast for EUR/USD in full: 50% of experts side with the bulls, 25% side with the bears, and the remaining 25% prefer to remain neutral. At the same time, there is a slight difference when moving to the medium-term forecast: the number of bear supporters here is 10% higher, 85%.

The readings of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 also copy the readings of their counterparts for EUR/USD: all 100% are on the green side, and 10% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.

Levels and support zones for the pair are 1.2210-1.2235, 1.2150, 1.2085-1.2105, 1.2030, 1.1960, 1.1900, 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1700-1.1720, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1150, 1.1100. When the pair moves north, it will meet resistance at the levels of 1.2290-1.2310, 1.2345, 1.2425-1.2450 and 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2750.

As already mentioned, Monday, December 12, when the country's GDP data will be published, attracts attention this week, as for the events concerning the economy of the United Kingdom. Data on unemployment and wages will arrive the following day, that on consumer prices (CPI) will become known on Wednesday, December 14, and on retail sales and business activity in the UK - on Friday, December 16. And of course, a special emphasis is on December 15, when the Bank of England will issue its verdict on the interest rate.

USD/JPY: What Can Help the Yen

USD/JPY rose from the Dec 02 low of 133.61 to 137.85 last week, slightly above the strong 137.50 support/resistance zone. The last chord of the week sounded at 136.60.

The future of the pair will continue to depend on the difference in interest rates between the US and Japan. If the Fed remains at least moderately hawkish and the BoJ remains ultra-dovey, the dollar will continue to dominate the yen. The threat of new foreign exchange intervention by the Ministry of Finance of Japan, the same as it was on November 10, seems unlikely at current levels. Raising the key rate could help, but it is very likely that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will leave it unchanged at its meeting on December 20: at the negative level of -0.1%. A radical change in monetary policy can be expected only after April 8 next year. It is on this day that Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of the Bank of Japan, will end hs term, and he may be replaced by a new candidate with a tougher position. Although this is not a fact.

Another hope is for renewed concerns about China's economic prospects. "Weak growth rates and a clear decline in bond yields," economists from the ING banking group believe, "should lead to the fact that safe currencies, such as the yen, will begin to show superiority," and this will support the Japanese currency.

Analysts' forecast for the near future is bearish: 50% of them vote for the pair to fall, the remaining 50% have taken a neutral position. However, in the medium term, most experts (60%) are shifting their gaze from south to north, expecting a serious strengthening of the dollar and the return of the pair to the 145.00-150.00 zone. For oscillators on D1, the picture looks like this: 90% look south, 10% look north. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 85% versus 15% in favor of the red ones.

The nearest support level is located at 136.00 zone, followed by levels and zones 134.10-134.35, 133.60, 131.25-131.70, 129.60-130.00, 128.10-128.25, 126.35 and 125.00. Levels and resistance zones are 137.50-137.70, 138.00-138.30, 139.00, 139.50-139.75, 140.60, 142.25, 143.75, 145.30, 146.85-147.00, 148.45, 149.45, 150.00 and 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above the height of 152.00.

The calendar could mark Wednesday December 14, when the values of the Sentiment Indices of Large Manufacturers and Non-Manufacturing Tankan Companies for Q4 2022 will be announced. The publication of other macro indicators of the Japanese economy is not expected next week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Christmas Rally After Crypto Massacre

We titled the last review "Cryptogeddon Instead of Crypto Winter" (by analogy with Armageddon, the place of the last and decisive battle between the forces of good and the forces of evil). There is another "bloody" term now: "crypto massacre", which characterizes what happened as a result of the collapse of the second most capitalized crypto exchange, FTX. Investors lost $10.16 billion in just one week in November. This crisis was like a domino, which led to the collapse of many other companies. About 94% of respondents believe the FTX bankruptcy will be followed by further turmoil as years of easy lending give way to a tougher business and market environment, according to a Bloomberg survey. To complicate matters , between 73% and 81% of investors lost money due to investing in cryptocurrencies between 2015 and 2022. This is evidenced by data from a study conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

The price of bitcoin is consolidating around $17,000 at the moment, and the readings of the SMA100 and SMA200 indicators on the four-hour chart have converged almost at one point. BTC/USD is kept from falling by the dollar that has sagged in recent weeks. Markets froze in anticipation of December 14, when the Fed will make a decision on the interest rate. And it, in turn, depends on the data on inflation in the US, which will arrive the day before. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Economic Forecasts will also play a significant role in the dollar dynamics.

Optimists, including crypto communities such as Credible Crypto, Moustache and Dave the Wave, expect this data to positively influence the market's risk appetite, and the Christmas rally will push bitcoin to $20,000. According to the expectations of members of the crypto community CoinMarketCap, BTC will trade at an average price of $19,788 by the end of the year.

PricePredictions' machine learning algorithms, which include a number of technical indicators (MA, RSI, MACD, BB, etc.), indicate a price of $1,000 lower. According to their metrics, the main cryptocurrency will reach $18,797 on December 31, 2022.

However, not everything is so rosy and unambiguous. For example, Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone believes that cryptocurrencies are now going through the last stage before reaching the bottom. However, he warns that it will be very difficult to survive this phase: "Normally, markets do not just form a V-bottom. They make it as hard as possible with a lot of volatility, taking money from all investors."

According to Michael Van De Poppe, a well-known trader and analyst, the pair will face many difficulties on the way to $19,000. The bulls will need to break through the important resistance level in the $17,400-17,600 range and then try to reach the $18,285 horizon.

As for the price of ethereum, Van de Poppe believes that the key support level for this cryptocurrency is the price of $1,200. Mike McGlone is of the same opinion. According to his calculations, ETH has strong support close to the current price level.

There is very little time left until the end of the year, and then we will find out who was more accurate in their forecasts. In the meantime, at the time of writing the review (Friday evening, December 09), ETH/USDis trading around $1,260, and BTC/USD - $17,100. The total capitalization of the crypto market has not changed much over the week and is $0.852 trillion ($0.859 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen only 1 point in seven days, from 27 to 26 and still remains in the Fear zone.

And to conclude the review, a few words about longer-term forecasts. Such popular Twitter analysts as Bluntz and Korinek_Trades do not rule out BTC/USD falling to $15,000 or even $12,000 in Q1 2023.

The picture drawn by Standard Chartered economists is even bleaker. They expect that the collapse of FTX will continue to affect the mood of the crypto market, the series of bankruptcies of large industry participants will continue, which will lead to a further loss of confidence in digital assets. As a result, bitcoin's price could fall to $5,000 during 2023. Standard Chartered Chief Strategist Eric Robertsen allowed investor interest to switch from the digital version of gold to its physical counterpart and the price of the precious metal to rise to $2,250 per troy ounce. At the same time, Robertsen emphasized that the proposed scenario is not a forecast, but only suggests a possible deviation from the current market consensus.

Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz looked farthest into the future and saw a light at the end of the tunnel. In a comment to Bloomberg Television, he maintained his forecast that the price of the first cryptocurrency will rise to $500,000. However, it will now take more than five years for bitcoin, in his opinion, to achieve this goal due to significant changes in the macroeconomic situation and the aggressive actions of the Fed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 166.61; (P) 167.34; (R1) 168.17; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment and more sideway trading could be seen. On the downside, break of 164.02 should resume the whole fall from 172.11 through 163.02 support. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 168.99 resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 172.11 high instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term upside momentum has been diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 160.90) will argue that it's already correcting whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Nevertheless, before that, such up trend could still extend through 172.11 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.20; (P) 143.84; (R1) 144.50; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment, and further decline remains mildly in favor. Break of 140.75 will resume the choppy fall from 148.38. However, sustained break of the channel resistance (now at 144.83) will suggest that the correction from 148.38 has completed. Stronger rise should be seen to 146.12 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, 148.38 could be a medium term top already. Fall from there is probably correcting whole up trend from 114.42 (2020 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 55 week EMA (now at 138.08), or further to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8557; (P) 0.8598; (R1) 0.8632; More...

Sideway trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 0.8674 resistance intact. Break of 0.8545 will resume the fall from 0.9267, and target 61.8% projection of 0.9267 to 0.8647 from 0.8827 at 0.8444 next. On the upside, above 0.8674 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.8827 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.9267 is a down leg inside long term range pattern. Deeper fall could be seen towards 0.8201/8338 support zone. But strong support should be seen there to bring reversal. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8827 resistance will turn favor to the case that such decline is merely a correction in the up trend from 0.8201. That is, further rally would be seen at a later stage through 0.9267.